If I'm wrong, I might have to eat these words on the steps of Vancouver City Hall this November.

But the way I see it, Peter Ladner -- perhaps the business commmunity's perfect candidate had he put his name forward 20 years ago -- has very little chance of becoming the next mayor of Vancouver in 2008, even if he wins the NPA nomination.

Here's why. Vancouver has experienced monumental demographic changes since the city hosted the World's Fair in 1986.

COPE was slow to adapt to those changes, and did a poor job of recruiting candidates from the growing communities of Chinese, Filipino, South Asian, and Latin American immigrants.

Jenny Kwan won one term for COPE on council and then graduated to provincial politics in 1996 by becoming MLA for Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.

The NPA fared much better in this regard. Even though many of those candidates weren't elected--and particulary those of South Asian descent--the NPA paid more attention to multicultural communities in the 1990s.

Long-time NPA park commissioner Allan De Genova planted deep roots with the Chinese Canadian merchants in Chinatown, and he was a favourite of the Italian community in East Vancouver.

NPA school trustee Don Lee has worked exceptionally hard on behalf of Chinese-speaking residents across the city, both as a city councillor and as a trustee.

And Mayor Sam Sullivan learned to speak Cantonese and Punjabi, and now he's picking up Tagalog, which is the language of most Filipinos.

One of the greatest forms of respect a Canadian-born politician can pay immigrants is to speak to them well in their native language.

So what about Ladner? He would attend the dinners like all the other politicians, but he hasn't cultivated nearly as close ties with first-generation immigrants. His newspaper, Business in Vancouver, was not exactly a beacon of multiculturalism in the time when he was the publisher.

He will promote issues of importance to small businesspeople, many of whom are first-generation immigrants, but he hasn't connected with them on an emotional level in the manner of Sullivan or De Genova.

And Ladner is still not speaking any Cantonese from the podium, even though it's not that difficult to learn a few phrases.

Ladner is also handicapped by the perception, often reinforced by Courier columnist Allen Garr, that he is a member of the city's blueblood establishment, unlike Sullivan, who grew up on the city's East Side. Sullivan has a far better chance than Ladner of winning East Side votes for the NPA.

Ladner might win the NPA nomination this spring, but that likely won't stop Sullivan from running as an independent. Sullivan is a very adept political fundraiser.

Keep in mind that Ladner might also do exceptionally well in the gay community, which could help him win the NPA nomination. Ladner has already been endorsed by gay community hero and Little Sister's bookstore coowner Jim Deva.

Ladner's entry into municipal politics in 2002 was promoted by former NPA councillor Gordon Price, who is also gay.

Another gay former NPA councillor, Alan Herbert, has often criticized Sullivan for promoting the 2005 candidacy of Ronald Leung. Leung opposed equal marriage rights for gays and lesbians. This is another reason why the gay and lesbian community might unite around Ladner.

However, any NPA candidate probably has to win a huge share of the first-generation Chinese Canadian vote in order to become mayor.

For the NPA in 2005, the first-generation Chinese vote was like political oxygen, and was very likely responsible for the NPA narrowly capturing control of Vancouver city council.

It would also help the NPA to take a majority of votes within the first-generation Filipino and first-generation South Asian communities, too.

That's because many second-, third-, and fourth-generation Vancouverites are much more progressive about drug addiction. Sullivan has some appeal to these voters with his libertarian views.

These voters often go NDP provincially. They might be quite comfortable with a centrist party like Vision Vancouver.

But it's going to be very difficult for Ladner to capture first-generation immigrants' votes if Sullivan, who has high name recognition, is on the ballot as an independent.

And Ladner will have even more trouble winning first-generation immigrants' votes if Vision Vancouver nominates De Genova, Gregor Robertson, or Raymond Louie as its mayoral candidate.

Sullivan has already tied up the support of political heavyweights in the Chinese Canadian community, including former councillor Maggie Ip.

It's hard to conceive that other influential Chinese Canadian community and business leaders, such as SUCCESS CEO Tung Chan and Concord Pacific's Terry Hui, won't also be backing Sullivan even if he runs as an independent.

Chinese Canadian community leaders might also be just as apt to support De Genova or Robertson or Louie over Ladner should Sullivan withdraw from the race.

As an MLA, Robertson has distinguished himself as a strong advocate for first-generation Chinese immigrants who've been shafted by the British Columbia student-loan system. That earned him lots of coverage in the Chinese-language media.

Robertson also fought to retain Mount Saint Joseph Hospital--which is cherished by many Vancouverites of Chinese descent.

Robertson and other NDP MLAs mounted an effective campaign to counter and delay the B.C. Liberal government's public-private partnership brigade and Providence Health Care from consolidating St. Paul's Hospital and Mount Saint Joseph Hospital in a new facility on the Downtown Eastside.

Meanwhile, Vision Vancouver Coun. Raymond Louie's ethnic heritage and trips to China would serve him well with Chinese Canadian voters, who might take pride in electing the city's first mayor of Chinese descent.

Louie has also been an extremely pro-development councillor, once voting in favour of taking the next step to allow residential development at the Plaza of Nations. This would have pleased executives at Concord Pacific, which owned a whack of developable land nearby that was slated to include less lucrative commercial development.

So no matter who gets the Vision Vancouver mayoral nod, the party is more likely to improve its standing with first-generation Chinese Canadian voters. Coun. George Chow's presence on council also helps the party in this area.

So if Ladner wins the NPA mayoral nomination, he risks fracturing the NPA coalition that has delivered city hall to the party in all but one election since Expo 86. He'll retain a significant slice of the gay vote, but that could be more than offset by the NPA's loss of first-generation immigrants' votes.

Sullivan, who relishes a political fight, will probably not step aside should Ladner become his party's nominee for mayor--increasing the likelihood that the NPA's traditional coalition will fracture into different camps.

Even if Sullivan didn't run, De Genova, Robertson, or Louie could make serious inroads into the NPA's traditional dominance with first-generation immigrant voters.

Toss in an environmentally minded mayoral candidate for COPE -- such as Fred Bass or David Cadman -- and Ladner would lose support among West Side Greens, whom he'll also need to become mayor.

And that could spell very bad news for NPA candidates for park board, school board, and city council in the 2008 Vancouver election.