The possibility of Non-Partisan Association councillor Peter Ladner running as an independent mayoral candidate has set off alarm bells in Mayor Sam Sullivan’s camp.

Ladner told the Georgia Straight in a terse phone interview on February 25 that he hasn’t ruled out running for mayor as an independent if he doesn’t win the NPA nomination. So grave could be the impact of such a move on Sullivan that a spokesperson for the mayor is pondering candidly about a defeat in the November election.

“Even if we succeed against Peter—and I think the mayor would have succeeded through this process—and Peter’s at the end of it saying, ”˜Well, I didn’t like the way it went, I’m running as an independent’”¦that’s a recipe for losing the election,” Sullivan spokesperson David Hurford told the Straight.

Hurford was attempting to explain why Sullivan asked the NPA board to exempt him from rules shielding incumbent city officials from challengers in a nomination contest, so he and Ladner can square off against each other in an open-selection process. Ladner previously tried but failed to convince the board to reconsider these rules.

“One of the principal reasons why we have that announcement today [February 25] from the mayor is that Coun. Ladner was keeping the option open of running as an independent mayoral candidate if things didn’t go his way,” Hurford said by phone. “Obviously, an independent mayoral candidate like Peter Ladner in the race would not be good for the NPA. I think the mayor wanted to do his best to eliminate that option, and he has decided to open it [the nomination] up.”

In his letter to the NPA board, Sullivan stated that Stephen Rogers, a former Social Credit cabinet minister who cochairs his nomination team, will be in charge of negotiating dates for debates and the actual nomination.

“I hope Peter will now rule out an independent run”¦and respect the result,” Hurford said. “There’s something, you know, about saying, ”˜I’m all about democracy; I’m all about democracy unless I lose, and if I lose I’m going to be an independent.’ That just doesn’t wash. It’s not consistent, and to have Peter out there kind of saying that, I think it shows he’s not a team player, quite frankly.”

Ladner isn’t obliging the Sullivan team. “I’m going to make up my mind on that,” Ladner told the Straight when asked whether he’ll go independent. “I’m not making any decision about that because my focus is on becoming the NPA candidate. I’m not ruling it [out] any way.”

Sullivan’s request to go into a nomination contest will make it tougher for Ladner to eventually run as an independent, said Bob Ransford, a federal Conservative organizer who supported Sullivan in the 2005 election.

But this doesn’t mean that Ladner has to abide by the results of the nomination if he loses to Sullivan, added Ransford, who is now supporting Ladner.

“I’m concerned about whether or not Sam can get reelected,” Ransford told the Straight about why he switched camps. “I want to make sure that the NPA has control over City Hall.”

Jonathan Baker ran as a mayoral candidate under the now-defunct Voice party in 1996 after he got turfed from the NPA. He placed a respectable third behind NPA mayor Philip Owen and COPE’s Carmela Allevato.

“He’ll lose,” Baker told the Straight when asked what Ladner may expect in the election if he decides to go solo.

Citing his experience as an NPA candidate for council in 1986 and 1988, Baker said that 75 percent of votes are actually votes for the political party.

“The NPA has always been a strong brand,” he said. “It draws a lot of votes. People who run as independents, either as councillor or mayor, have a tough time of getting elected.”

But Ladner, who comes from one of British Columbia’s oldest families, could put up a real fight if he spends a ton of money in the campaign, Baker suggested.

“If he spends more than Sullivan”¦then he will have a chance,” Baker said. “[Ladner can] buy a lot of TV ads. Resources will be everything. You can’t do it with a small budget.”

Vision Vancouver councillor and potential mayoral candidate Raymond Louie knows the value of resources in a campaign, and he said he’s still busy mustering the wherewithal to go all the way to the November 15 election.

“I feel that I’ve got good enough support to win a nomination, but I think it’s also important to get significant support to win the election itself,” Louie told the Straight. “That’s what I’m primarily working on right now: to make sure I have the resources and all the pieces in place to actually win the election, and not just the nomination.”

Louie said he’ll announce in March whether or not he’ll actually seek Vision’s endorsement for mayor, which he will have to contest with Vancouver-Fairview NDP MLA Gregor Robertson, and newly minted Vision member and park board commissioner Allan De Genova.

Louie bristles at the suggestion that he’ll merely go a certain distance and eventually throw his support behind Robertson. “Who’s speculating that?” Louie asked indignantly. “If I enter into this race, I’m entering this race to win.”