Construction of the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline scheduled to begin in 2010. CCPA photo. Click image to enlarge.

Fields of unmarked landmines and an unchecked insurgency stand in the way of what could be Afghanistan’s largest development project, a Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives report states.

A proposed natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan, to Pakistan and India, could provide a major boost to Afghanistan’s struggling economy. The CCPA’s report, released June 19, states that annual transit revenues could amount to $160 million, or half of the Afghan government’s entire domestic revenue.

Afghanistan’s petroleum minister, Muhammad Abrahim, has claimed, according to the report, that 300 “industrial units” have already been established near the pipeline’s proposed route and that a further 1,000 are in the planning stages.

But the CCPA’s report, titled “A Pipeline Through a Troubled Land: Afghanistan, Canada, and the New Great Energy Game,” expresses concern about the feasibility of the pipeline’s construction, and raises questions about the motivations of countries’ involved with the project, Canada among them.

The CCPA’s report was written by John Foster, an energy economist with 40 years experience in international development. Speaking to the Straight from Ottawa, he said that the project’s scheduled construction start date of 2010 is a long shot.

The pipeline, called TAPI, is planned to run through Kandahar province, where, Foster noted, just last week (June 13) Taliban forces freed hundreds of prisoners in a daring jail break. In the aftermath, dozens of villages were reportedly seized by militants, and NATO forces were left scrambling to mount a counterattack.

Kandahar province is also where the majority of Canadian forces’ combat operations in Afghanistan are taking place.

“If they were to build the line right now,” Foster said, “it could become a massive target going right through Kandahar, the heart of the insurgency.”

If TAPI’s security is to be counted on for investment by 2010, Foster continued, the entire southern region of Afghanistan will have to be cleared of landmines, and Taliban and al-Qaeda forces will have to be eliminated.

With Canadian forces presently scheduled to leave Afghanistan by 2011—though that date has been pushed back several times—there is a lot of work to be done.

“I’ve never made a loan in my life—and I’ve made a lot to countries through the World Bank and regional bank of Latin America—that required, as a loan condition, that there be a foreign army to impose it,” Foster said. “That doesn’t work.”

A major player in Afghanistan is, of course, the United States. The CCPA’s report briefly outlines how the U.S. has worked toward building a pipeline through Afghanistan for over a decade now, with efforts beginning long before September 11, 2001.

The U.S. has three primary reasons to back a pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, Foster explained. One, drawing on natural gas from Turkmenistan limits Russia’s influence in the region. Two, facilitating the transportation of natural gas out of Turkmenistan works to isolate Iran, which has proposed a rival pipeline, IPI, that would run from Iran to India and Pakistan. “And the third is to embrace India and Pakistan,” Foster said.

“India is a new economic superpower, hugely successful in the last several years. And the thought of India getting cozy with China or Russia is not something that the U.S. is enthused about,” he continued. “And in the case of Pakistan—so close as it is to fragmentation—it’s to keep it on-side in the war on terror.”

The CCPA’s report claims that Canada also stands to gain from TAPI: “Canadian firms could be awarded construction contracts if the TAPI pipeline moves forward. Afghanistan is already Canada’s largest recipient of foreign aid and Canadian troops have taken a disproportionately high level of casualties, so Canadian firms would be well positioned politically to win contracts from the Afghan government.”

Canada also holds a stake in the Asian Development Bank, which is coordinating the pipeline project. If ADB were to provide a loan for TAPI’s construction—which is estimated to cost $7.6 billion—it would stand to be repaid interest over the life of the project.

Stephen Staples, founder of the Rideau Institute on International Affairs, a research and advocacy group on public-policy issues, wrote an introduction for the CCPA’s report.

“How the heck are they going get a pipeline 1,700 kilometres through Afghanistan on the route that they’re proposing, which goes right through the insurgency?” Staples asked in a telephone interview with the Straight. “It’s utter folly, really.”

Staples acknowledged that TAPI’s potential benefits for Afghanistan are substantial, but questioned what further commitment from Canada will be required to protect the pipeline.

“My concern is that with the absence of discussion on this, that the debate around our role in Afghanistan is going on without all of the information being put on the table,” he said.