Straight Talk

Burnaby report questions TransLink analysis of peak oil

by Charlie Smith on July 6th, 2008 at 7:06 AM

A City of Burnaby staff report expresses concerns that TransLink might not be paying enough attention to  "peak oil".

Peak oil describes when global production will max out;  peak-oil  theorists say this  will be followed by either a sharp or steady decline as oil reservoirs are depleted around the world.

The Germany-based Energy Watch Group  has suggested that the peak for conventional oil production occurred in 2006, which accounts for rapidly rising oil prices since then.

The  Burnaby staff report, which goes to council on Monday (July 7), notes that TransLink's Transport 2040 document acknowledges that the rate of oil production is forecast to peak and begin declining over the coming decades.

"This is correct, but incomplete," the Burnaby report states. "It gives the impression that we have many years in which to prepare."

It adds that a U.S. Department of Energy study reviewed published estimates for the peak. It concluded that the average year was 2014.

"While an exact year cannot be known, Transport 2040 should acknowledge the possibility that peak oil is imminent," the report states.

Meanwhile, UBC civil engineering associate professor Rob Millar has suggested that should  global oil production peak by 2010, "no combination of non-conventional sources will be sufficient to offset future decline let  alone grow supply."  

The Burnaby report notes that Transport 2040 fails to link peak oil to the issue of the region's role as "Canada's primary gateway to the Asia-Pacific".

"It notes that the port's container traffic is expected to triple by 2020," the Burnaby report states. "This is a projection based on the continued availability of cheap oil."

It also cites a recent statement from CIBC that globalization is "reversible" because higher energy prices are having an impact on transport costs at an "unprecedented rate".

"In face, in tariff-equivalent terms, the explosion in global transport costs has effectively offset all the trade liberalization efforts of the last three decades," CIBC stated. "Not only does this suggest a major slowdown in the growth of world trade, but also a fundamental realignment in trade patterns."

Approximately 70 percent of the Port of Vancouver's containers move by rail, the Burnaby report states.

"The containers that do move by truck consist almost entirely (96%) of local traffic," the report adds. "This has economic value, but is a small share of total truck movements on the region's roads, and has nothing to do with serving the nation. The focus on the port is misplaced."

Comments

5 Comments

ranXerox

Jul 6, 2008 at 2:49pm

Of course, we all knew this going in. What Mr. Smith fails to recognize is the indebtedness of certain political parties to certain interests which dictate how public monies will be spent. We will have a Trade and Convention Centre costing hundreds of millions and we will have highways widened and bridges too - at a cost of billions of dollars. My personal favourite is a transit system with an end point (the airport) with no discernable future at all.
We consider the public to be little more than a complicit stooge, ready to take an hourly wage now for projects that will invariably strike future generations as little more than homages to stupidity, greed and an archaic way of thinking.
We're building Vancouver's version of Stonehenge and we like it just fine.
So shut it, take your money and look the other way - nothing to see here!

RodSmelser

Jul 7, 2008 at 12:22pm

Rod Smelser

Did the Burnaby Planning Dept paper, presumably authored by either Basil Luksun or Stuart Ramsey, make any suggestions as to how Burnaby's own "Big Bend" plans would be impacted by "peak oil", or simply by rising oil and gas prices, such as are prevalent right now?

In case people didn't know about it, Burnaby City Council and its Planning Dept have been working with developers for many years on a major project in the Big Bend area of Burnaby, alongside Marine Way. It's expected at full build out to have 25,000 to 30,000 jobs, and parts of the big box retail component are on land excluded from the ALR. Even Burnaby's own documents admit that almost all the employees and customers will access the area by car/truck.

If this development were occuring in Surrey or Langley or Maple Ridge, Mayor Corrigan himself would be on TV bellyaching that they are violating the LRSP. And Corrigan would be backed up in that by such sincere commentators as Stephen Rees and Gordon Price. "Vancourism" in practice is a bit like sausage making. Too close an examination of the contents can ruin the desired sensation.