Lorne Mayencourt could help Michael Byers become NDP leader

This morning, I heard Vancouver-Burrard Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt saying on CBC Radio that he will run for the federal Conservatives in Vancouver Centre.

The addition of Mayencourt will make this the most entertaining contest in the country. Liberal Hedy Fry has had a relatively easy time defeating every opponent who challenged her since she was the giant killer of the 1993 election.

Back then, Fry, a former B.C. Medical Association president, knocked off then-prime minister Kim Campbell in Vancouver Centre.

But in the 2008 election, the votes could split in a way that could jeopardize Fry's chances for reelection.

Vancouver Centre is a very diverse riding that includes lots of renters, some of the province's biggest businesses, two major hospitals (and  plenty of health-care workers), a large gay and lesbian population, and huge numbers of immigrants.

The federal Liberals have managed to appeal to all of those groups to varying degrees. Fry is a hero in the gay community. Her credentials as a doctor and a woman of colour help with health workers and with new Canadians.

But this time, Fry will face a different kind of challenge. It's possible that someone could win this seat with as little as 30 percent of the vote.

Mayencourt, a two-time MLA and the father of the Safe Streets legislation, will appeal to the riding's rather large number of Log Cabin Republicans (free-enterprise gays). That will eat into Fry's support base.

Mayencourt could also siphon off some of the law-and-order vote. Let's say this brings him up over the 20 percent mark.

Green candidate Adriane Carr has very high name recognition in a riding with a large number of environmentally minded voters. She might have some appeal to female voters. In recent elections, Fry's main opponents have been men.

If the stars align for her, Carr, a former provincial Green leader, could attract 15 to 20 percent of the votes. Her party will put a lot of money into the riding, which should help the Greens do better here than their national numbers.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that 65 percent of Carr's supporters are women. There's another big bite out of Hedy Fry's natural base of support.

The NDP has recruited a genuine star, UBC political scientist Michael Byers, to carry the flag in Vancouver Centre. He is a master of attracting media attention, and he's helped by a very strong organization.

Byers needs to focus more attention on housing, which is a key issue in the riding. But he has already forged links with health-care workers and has gone out of his way to appeal to gay and lesbian voters.

Byers could easily win 35 percent of the vote in the riding if Jack Layton runs a decent campaign.

That  would leave  Fry at around 30 percent of the vote, making Byers the next MP for Vancouver Centre.

And if that happens, watch Byers and Outremont MP Thomas Mulcair scrap it out to become the successor to Jack Layton as federal NDP leader.

My bet would be on Byers, given the party's large number of B.C. members as well as Byers's potential appeal to New Democrats in Saskatchewan, where he was born.

You heard it here first, folks. Thanks to Lorne Mayencourt, Michael Byers wins Vancouver Centre and goes on to become the next federal leader of the NDP.