Someone has been pushing up the value of Canwest Global Communications Corp. shares since a damning Maclean’s story questioned whether the media giant could go bankrupt.

On December 22, Duncan Hood wrote a piece on the Maclean’s blog describing Canwest—owner of dozens of newspapers and the Global TV network—as a “struggling penny stock”.

On December 18, Canwest shares reached a low of 34 cents before rallying to close at 40 cents in a heavier-than-normal trading volume (757,800 shares traded) that day.

On December 22—the day Hood’s piece appeared—Canwest shares closed at 48 cents after 209,400 shares traded.

The next day, Canwest shares rocketed up 35 percent to close at 65 cents after 253,700 shares traded.

At 12:58 p.m. PST today, Canwest shares sold at 78 cents, almost double the closing of December 18. Anyone who bought $10,000 in Canwest shares at the December 18 closing would have been able to sell them for $19,500 today.

It’s still a far cry from the days when Canwest shares sold for well above $20, but hey, a rally is a rally.

So what could be behind Canwest’s rising share price—which vastly exceeds modest price rises over same period for two leading U.S. media giants: News Corp. and the New York Times Company?

Theory number one: Canwest executives plan to approach the federal government to seek a bailout just like their friends in the auto industry did. Would a minority Conservative government have the guts to turn down a media giant that could make or break some of its candidates in a general election? Would the Liberals, who see themselves as the government-in-waiting, turn down Canwest, which could extract so much retribution during a political campaign? Not likely.

Theory number two: Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., which has annual revenues of US$33 billion, is getting ready to buy Canwest. It would require regulatory changes on the part of the federal government. But if the Conservatives turned down a bailout request from Canwest, it would be easier to justify making changes to allow foreign takeovers of Canadian media assets. If Murdoch owned Canwest, he could strengthen the Canwest-owned National Post and weaken the CTVglobemedia-owned Globe and Mail by transferring Wall Street Journal articles away from the Globe and into the Post. Murdoch could recycle Fox television shows through Global TV, which would put a dent in CTVglobemedia’s domination of Canadian network television. Murdoch would also make a great leap forward toward dominating the North American media market.

Theory number three: The Maclean’s article indicated to money managers that Canwest shares had bottomed out, so they decided to take a bet and try for some short term profit-taking. If so, they’ll sell the shares before long, driving the price back down.

Perhaps it's just a fluke that Canwest shares rose so much more rapidly in percentage terms than other media companies. After all, it is a penny stock, and with this comes a greater likelihood of volatility. The trading volumes have been exceedingly low since December 24, so it's not as if anyone is currently buying large blocks of shares.

However on November 25, Canwest reported Lenvest Enterprises Ltd., which is owned by Canwest CEO Leonard Asper, bought almost 2.74 million subordinated voting shares, which accounted for 2.7 percent of all outstanding shares in this category.

The same day, Canwest reported that David Asper Holdings Inc., owned by Leonard's brother David, bought 1.55 million subordinated voting shares, which amounted to 1.6 percent of the subordinated voting shares. David Asper is chairman of the National Post.