A world-renowned Lhasa-born UBC professor is predicting that the upcoming 50th anniversary of Tibet’s failed March 10, 1959, uprising will be quieter than last year.

The 49th anniversary of the uprising led to full-scale rioting in Tibet a year ago.

“You will not see the level of protest like the things that happened last year,” Tsering Shakya told the Straight in a phone interview today (March 5). “Last year there was the element of surprise and a certain unexpectedness on the part of the Chinese officials. This year China is very well prepared, and there are much more security measures that have been taken in Tibet. So it is very different.”

Shakya was eight years old when his family upped and left Tibet for Nepal in 1967. Now he is a Canada Research Chair at UBC’s Institute of Asian Research and teaches the Tibetan studies program.

Shakya reiterated that “the anniversary is a very important memorial for the Tibetans”.

“It’s to do with remembering the past and to do with what could have been the future,” he added. “It’s very symbolic for the Tibetans.”

The Vancouver chapter of the Canada Tibet Committee is putting on events commemorating March 10, 1959, and has been given a proclamation from Mayor Gregor Robertson declaring that March is Tibet Month in Vancouver.

At a CTC-organized talk on March 2 at Cafe Kathmandu, Shakya spoke eloquently about the cultural, spiritual, political, and socio-economic impacts Chinese rule has had on the nation often referred to as the Roof of the World.

Shakya said it would be “difficult” to envisage Tibetan autonomy on the one hand, given the aggressive nature of the occupation and Chinese government’s vehement comments condemning the Dalai Lama, the country’s spiritual leader since his forced exile in 1959.

“The problem in China at the moment is that the Communist Party of China does not want to be seen as weak or in a position where it is having to reach a compromise because of protests or internal pressure or international pressure,” Shakya told the Straight. “So, the Chinese government sees this will be very bad internally, where the Communist Party will be weak and be seen to have caved in to the pressure from the Tibetans. So then there is no stopping what other demands the Chinese people will make.”

Added Shakya: “With Hong Kong, if China were to interfere too much in the [political] system, this would have a detrimental effect on China’s economy. Tibet doesn’t have that kind of leverage on China. But my main point on the principle is that it is not something that is alien to the Chinese leadership. This idea is not so shocking. It is not like B.C. declaring itself autonomous from Canada. The idea is not so foreign or alien to the Chinese leadership. They can sell this to the Chinese people very easily, because you can say there is a precedent. ‘This is how Hong Kong works and we don’t have a problem with it.’ At present, the Chinese government is adamantly against the idea.”

Shakya is 50 years old—like the upcoming anniversary.

“As I said in my talk, I wish I could write the book Midnight’s Children, where Salman Rushdie began the history of India from the child that was born on the moment of independence.”

Shakya moved from Nepal to India, before a teaching stint took him to Oxford, U.K., in 2005. In 2006, he came to Canada.