Gwynne Dyer: A cease-fire in Sri Lanka will cause more bloodshed in the long term

As the 26-year war in Sri Lanka nears its end, every busybody in the world is urging the Sri Lankan government to stop.

Spare the poor civilians trapped in the combat zone; declare a cease-fire; it's time to negotiate, they all implore. Even the U.S. government has now joined the chorus.

Recently, the White House said that it was "deeply concerned about the plight of innocent civilians caught up in the conflict between the government of Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers and the mounting deathtoll".

It called on both sides to "stop fighting immediately and allow civilians to safely leave the combat zone".

The Tigers immediately declared a unilateral cease-fire, while the Sri Lankan government called it a "joke" and continued its final offensive. But the government is right.

More than 70,000 people have died in the Sri Lankan war. Some hundreds of civilians, or maybe even a few thousands, will be killed in this last battle, but that's far fewer than would die if the war continued for years more.

Every time the "Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam" were granted a cease-fire in the past, they used the breathing space to rearm, and then relaunched their struggle for independence.

So no more cease-fires; just get it over with.

Besides, the civilians in the combat zone, all Tamils themselves, were not just "caught up in the conflict" between the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tigers.

As the rebels lost control of most of northern Sri Lanka over the past two years, they forced tens of thousands of Tamil civilians from their homes and made them join the retreat.

If the civilians tried to escape the ever-dwindling territory controlled by the Tigers, they were killed.

They are hostages, held prisoner in order to hinder the government's use of heavy weapons against the Tigers' defences.

In a just universe, all the mealy-mouthed diplomatic formulas that omit that
fundamental fact would earn eternal damnation for those who utter them.

Even when the Sri Lankan army managed to breach the Tigers' defences last week and tens of thousands of the hostages escaped, the Tigers sent along suicide bombers among the streams of refugees to punish them for their "treachery".

Next to Cambodia's Khmer Rouge, the Tamil Tigers are probably the worst bunch of ultranationalist extremists that Asia has seen in the past half-century.

They do, however, have an effective propaganda service, and command
wide support among the large Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora.

Not all of this is voluntary: one Tamil-Canadian in Toronto explained to me how he always avoided filling stations run by Tamils in order to avoid being indentified and "taxed" by the Tigers, with unpleasant consequences for his relatives back in Sri Lanka if he failed to pay up.

However, since there are many more Tamils than other Sri Lankan immigrants in most western countries, their governments tend to take the course of least resistance, which in the current context is to back the Tamil Tigers' pleas for a cease-fire.

Calling for a cease-fire always sounds good, and the western governments don't have to live with the consequences.

If the sanctimonious foreigners really wanted to make themselves useful, they would stop calling for a cease-fire and instead demand full civil rights for the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka after the war, including broad autonomy in the areas where they are the local majority.

It was the brutal suppression of Tamil rights in the decades after independence, extending even to pogroms against Tamils by the majority Sinhalese population, that caused this war. It will eventually cause another if it is not ended.

The current Sri Lankan government is not the ideal vehicle for attaining this goal. The prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa, is a nasty piece of work, and his brother Gotabaya, the defence secretary, is even nastier.

Together they have turned a once-flourishing democracy into a country where critics of the government often die violent but unexplained deaths.

If your goal is a tolerant, multi-ethnic Sri Lanka, you would not choose to start from here. But that is where Sri Lanka is, and so the choice is between evils.

The Tigers are a cancer that need to be eliminated. The present government will probably then do almost everything wrong, alienating the defeated Tamils from the Sri Lankan state by repressive measures when it should be trying to reconcile them. But once the Tigers are gone, the raison d'etre of such a brutal regime vanishes.

Sri Lanka's democracy has had its flaws and failures over the years, but it has deep roots, and it is hard to imagine a regime like that of the Rajapaksas surviving for long in peacetime. Only war made that possible, and the war will soon be over.

So if the foreigners really want to make themselves useful, they should stop grand-standing about the civilians trapped in the Tigers' remaining territory, which is now down to about 12 square kilometres.

Instead, they should push the Sri Lankan government to create a postwar dispensation that makes Tamils happy to be Sri Lankans.

As a start, all the Tamil civilians who have escaped from the Tigers should be freed within the next few weeks from the detention camps where they are being held. Keeping them for the planned year or more is just vindictive.  

Gwynne Dyer's latest book, Climate Wars, was published in Canada by Random House.

Comments

10 Comments

God's Messenger

Apr 26, 2009 at 4:21pm

Easy for you to say to ignore the civilians since they are not your people, mother, father, a beloved son or daughter. Very cold-hearted you are.
(165,000 Tamil civilians are in the 'No Fire Zone' and being attacked and killed in the 100's and 1000's by Sri Lanka Army. 10,000 Tamils have been killed and 20,000 injured. Would you still say no to a ceasefire if one of these people had been one of YOUR family members?)

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ken daniel

Apr 27, 2009 at 12:29am

How much money did you get from the Srilankan government to write this shit? Hope you go to hell.

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Keith

Apr 27, 2009 at 6:57am

"They do, however, have an effective propaganda service, and command
wide support among the large Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora. "

Every time I hear your name on news I get sick. And I'm not surprized to read a piece of article like this written by you at a time the whole world is concerned about the mass killings of one ethnic group of people in Sri Lanka. Just remember one thing, there may be few who may knot their heads to your so called "expert" articles but the majority of the people living in Canada and other countries aren't plain stupid.

If you think about your own quote for a minute, you will understand the reason why your comments are simply to benifit yourself. How do you think a large Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora came about? It's because people like you taking sides with the government of Sri Lanka to cover up their continued killings of Tamils in Sri Lanka. I wonder how long you have been on Sri Lankan governments payrol.

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The Real Deal

Apr 27, 2009 at 8:21am

What happens to the comments you don't us to say?

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Sarah

Apr 27, 2009 at 8:36am

You are basically saying then that in any hostage situation it is okay to go in and kill everyone to end the situation - no need to worry about the hostages - so what Russia did a few years ago was ok and next time Somalia hijacks a ship the governments should just blast the ships in order to end the situation.

A lack of a ceasefire will cause even more bloodshed, with every day that passes the international community is creating more extremists with a passive voice. Iraq was a sovreign state too...I guess it only works to go in or take proactive action when there's something more valuable than human life...

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HALT GENOCIDE .ORG

Apr 27, 2009 at 4:25pm

The world kept silent and allowed the Genocide in Rwanda and Cambodia. Many more atrocities take place around the world when our political leaders and the United Nations ignore these crimes. It is ordinary people such as us, (wherever we are) who can pressure our Politicians to take action to stop these horrible crimes. So please, YOU can help and make a difference. (HELP Save Tamils) Please see this website for info on how YOU CAN HELP US SAVE LIVES > > >

sites.google.com/site/helpsavetamils

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doug the bug

Apr 27, 2009 at 8:21pm

I appreciate Mr. Dyer's perspective on this. It truly is the lesser of two evils but is also the way that offers real change.

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Ian Weniger

Apr 27, 2009 at 9:43pm

Wow; in the same breath Gwynne calls for a crushing of the single most powerful force for Tamil rights and then calls for the world to demand those rights in Sri Lanka. Yet what struggle for national liberation has been promoted, let alone achieved, by the liquidation of the vanguard by an occupying power?
Ian Weniger, Vancouver

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Richard1

Apr 28, 2009 at 2:23am

Thanks for your perspective in this article. It is very strange that although many countries have now labelled the LTTE as "terrorists," those same countries apparently don't want the LTTE to be defeated.

I'm continually surprised that apparently sane & educated people seem to view as "romantic," terrorist acts such as car bombs, "suicide" bombs, roadside bombs, terror killings, child soldiers, extortion to raise funds for terror, etc. etc.

Our once "civilised, western values" really do seem to have decayed if so many people believe that "the ends justify the means."

I completely agree: I'd like this ghastly conflict to be finished - once and for all - with the minimum of bloodshed & suffering, and for the world community then to help Sri Lanka to resolve all underlying political issues.

There are far too many unresolved conflicts around the world. Too often, interference by NGOs and the "international community" seems to prolong these conflicts and to increase suffering, rather than to help resolve them.

If (or when) the Sri Lankan conflict is resolved successfully, perhaps it will show how to resolve the conflicts in other countries?

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Sam Thambimuttu

May 4, 2009 at 6:29am

Dear Tamil Diaspora,
LTTE has killed many more Tamils than anyone else. Listen to Daya master-listen to George Master. We all extracted everything from Sri Lanka for free and spread all lies in the west stating otherwise. There are many Tamils living in Colombo ,doing very well in business, Medicine ,politics etc. We chased away more than 40,000 sinhalese poeple from northern region since 1983. Do you still want to live in a world full of lies,lies and more lies and continue to feed the LTTE kiliing machine?

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