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Colin Hansen (with Premier Gordon Campbell and legislative clerk George MacMinn) was still finance minister when he was sworn in. But will he still have the job on Wednesday afternoon?

Five things to watch for in Gordon Campbell's new B.C. cabinet

B.C. MLAs will be sworn into office today (June 8), which also means we'll soon see a new cabinet. Here are five things worth watching for in the announcement on Wednesday (June 10):

1. Will Colin Hansen remain the finance minister when it's already obvious that his budget seriously shortchanged revenue estimates? The Business Council of B.C. recently suggested that the deficit could be as high as $2 billion without any cuts—which is a long way from Hansen's estimate of $495 million last February. Premier Gordon Campbell could keep Hansen in place to deal with the heat of a so-called fudge-it budget, or he could insert a replacement, such as Rich Coleman or Iain Black (one of the few with extensive business experience) or even Kevin Falcon or Ida Chong. A longshot is Ralph Sultan, a former Harvard economics professor and 75-year-old maverick whom Campbell has never promoted to cabinet. I'm betting Hansen will stay in the portfolio.

2. Will Campbell make Mike de Jong the attorney general and allow him to retain the aboriginal relations and reconciliation portfolio? The last person to hold both portfolios was Geoff Plant. There's a reasonable chance that Campbell will give de Jong both portfolios as well.

3. What to do with Kash Heed? Most observers think the former West Vancouver police chief will become the solicitor general. Heed, however, has a tendency to speak his mind. I'm betting the premier will appoint him to a more junior post to give him a little seasoning in cabinet.  

4. Which women will receive bigger roles? When the writ was dropped, Campbell had only two full-fledged female cabinet ministers: Shirley Bond and Chong. The other three—Mary Polak, Linda Reid, and Joan McIntyre—were essentially junior ministers responsible for portions of larger cabinet portfolios. Several high-powered women were recently elected as B.C. Liberals: Moira Stillwell, Naomi Yamamoto, Donna Barnett, Jane Thornthwaite, Margaret MacDiarmid, Mary McNeil, and Stephanie Cadieux. McIntyre will probably get a promotion, which might leave Yamamoto and Thornthwaite sitting on the backbenches if Campbell doesn't want to put two North Shore MLAs in the cabinet. MacDiarmid, Stillwell, and McNeil might also have trouble getting into cabinet today if Campbell already has three Vancouver MLAs (himself, Hansen, and Heed) in cabinet. To improve the optics for female Vancouver voters, Campbell could give a post to one of his three new female Vancouver MLAs, but the premier has to be concerned about presenting a front bench that is too Vancouver-centric. The most likely female newcomer to get a cabinet post is Barnett, purely because of geography. She's the only one of the bunch from the B.C. Interior, and she barely defeated her NDP opponent in Cariboo-Chilcotin.

5. The biggest issue looming on the agenda is peak oil. Will Campbell appoint a minister to keep an eye on this topic? Not a chance. Because if there was a minister responsible for preparing the province for the biggest issue of our lifetime, this minister might have to blow the whistle on the Gateway Program, which will keep the roadbuilders and the Vancouver Board of Trade happy until the next general election. However, if the premier is sincerely interested in this issue, he could give the position to Richard Lee, a backbencher who won his third straight election in Burnaby North. He's earnest enough to read all the material on the subject and wrap his mind around the numbers. But would Campbell ever listen to what he has to say?

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Josef
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Am rooting for my libertarian hot hero Mary Polak, MLA :-)!
 
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