Gwynne Dyer: Death of Neda Agha-Soltan raises the stakes for Iranian protests
The grisly video of 26-year-old Neda Agha-Soltan dying in a Tehran street, shot down by a government thug, has already been seen by millions of Iranians.
If the protesters against the alleged rigging of the recent election needed a dramatic image of martyrdom—and such images have a special resonance in Iran—they now have one. But things are not quite so simple.
Her death, all the more affecting because she was not actually a protester but just trapped in the midst of the demo, has enraged many people, but it has also frightened them.
She was only one of ten people killed on June 21, in Tehran by the police and the Basiji (the volunteer militia that normally serves as the regime's "morality police") but hers is the death that you can actually watch.
It was very fast, very ugly, and clearly quite arbitrary. If this is what happens to innocent bystanders, are you sure you want to go out and demonstrate again tomorrow?
The conventional wisdom says that in Iran such deaths only fuel popular anger and make the demos grow bigger, and that is certainly what happened during the struggle to overthrow the Shah of Iran 30 years ago. But there were only hundreds of demonstrators, not hundreds of thousands, on the streets of Tehran in the days after Neda's death.
The regime has now nailed its colours to the mast: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that he will back President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's disputed election victory come what may. There will not be a compromise in which the elections are re-run, maybe with a different outcome that makes Mir Hossein Mousavi, the opposition leader, the new president, but leaves Ali Khamenei and the basic principles of the "Islamic revolution" in place.
The regime's heavy artillery, a parallel army called the Revolutionary Guards, has now been deployed on the streets, and its Web site makes it clear that it is willing to kill demonstrators: "The Guards will firmly confront in a revolutionary way rioters and those who violate the law". In Iran, the phrase "in a revolutionary way" instantly recalls the tens of thousands of alleged enemies of the new regime who were killed in mass hangings in 1989.
It is the regime that has deliberately raised the stakes, from a mere dispute about the outcome of an election to an existential struggle for the regime's survival. It is a gamble, of course, for there are many young Iranians who would be willing to fight it out on that ground—but their leaders are not.
All three presidential candidates who believe they were cheated in the election are stalwart supporters of the Islamic regime. How could they be otherwise, when all presidential candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council for their revolutionary and Islamic dedication?
Mousavi was prime minister during the war with Iraq in 1980-88. Mohsen Rezaie is a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards. Even Mehdi Karroubi, the most liberal of the candidates, is a cleric who has served the revolution faithfully, if critically.
If it comes down to the survival of the Islamic revolutionary dispensation that they have devoted their lives to building, Mousavi, Rezaie, and Karroubi are all ultimately on the same side of the barricades as Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. That is precisely what it's coming down to, by the bold or desperate decision (take your pick) of Ali Khamenei. As he intends, it leaves the young people in the streets (60 percent of Iranians are under 30) without leaders.
You could hear the anguish in Mousavi's open letter to the Guardian Council, which is supposedly investigating the election of June 12: "We are not against the Islamic system and its laws but against lies and deviations, and just want to reform it". And he told his followers: "Protesting against lies and fraud is your right, (but) in your protests continue to show restraint". Nor did he tell them when they should next come out on the street to protest.
As more information becomes available, it looks likelier and likelier that there was massive rigging of the polls. Mehdi Karroubi, for example, got 55.5 percent of the votes in his home province of Lorestan in the last presidential election in 2005. This time, according to the official figures, he got only 4.6 percent, with most of the remainder shifting to Ahmadinejad. That is not remotely credible, nor could it have happened by accident.
It now seems likely that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad knew in advance that the latter's re-election bid was doomed, and rigged the election to "save the Islamic regime", or at least their version of it. Nothing could have been clumsier or more drastic than the intervention that they made, but it may have served its purpose, at least in the short run.
The protesters know they have been cheated, but without leaders or organization they may not be able to continue. We will know if it's really over on July 31, 40 days after the killing of Neda Agha-Soltan.
In the Shia tradition, that's when the 40 days of mourning end. During the revolt against the Shah, that was when the masses came out into the streets again to remember their martyrs. The game is still afoot, but the young, predictably, have been betrayed yet again by their elders.
Gwynne Dyer's latest book, Climate Wars, was published recently in Canada by Random House.
Comments
10 Comments
Manfred Steyn
Jun 23, 2009 at 1:37pm
I'm not sure if leadership is what they need right now. This is likely to be a self-organizing system. I imagine small cells will spawn using Web and wireless technologies, and these cells will begin to hunt down and kill individual members of the local militia that is responsible for the shooting. This should turn the tables on these thugs (who are mostly illiterates looking for a little bit of power) and undermine the dictatorship. At least I hope that's what happens.
Air Unknowen (CanadianViewer)
Jun 23, 2009 at 2:59pm
What has become of this world??? People killing there own kind for no reason at all. All these events happen across the world and we do nothing to change it! Even if there`s a little group trying to change everything in anyway will not get success, it will all end up exactly the same way. It`s the people that are in charge of whatever that needs to change. How to do these so called "human-beings" become in charge?? They kill and they lie to get in there with the rest of these lying bastards. There followers are just as dumb if they think they can do anything with out anyone noticeing. This world needs change but we all know this is never going to happen. With the death of Neda, there`s no doubt that there will be more, on or off the camera!!
troubling to watch
Jun 23, 2009 at 8:04pm
Hard to imagine some coward killing someone innocent who obviously wasn't a threat except in some abstract ideological sense. Perhaps the shooter just shot in her direction without aiming or was aiming at someone else. We'll likely never know. If he had any honour, he would turn the gun on himself now and follow his strict religious convictions about an eye for eye ...
Zena Shekarabi
Jun 24, 2009 at 6:15am
Last moment of Neda's life on the earth has been etched into my mind forever. I hope someone does something to these kinds of animals who are ruling Iran, and killing innocent people under the ploy of religion.
This is the 21st Century; people must know that Fanatical Politics will end the World.
Bush supporter!
Jun 24, 2009 at 11:35am
Bush made at least one accurate comment during his Presidency.
He described these extreme Islamic regimes as "Facist"
The free world should be treating these dictatorships as Facist, and act accordingly. Do you think a rise of facists again, in Germany, Spain or Italy would be tolerated? Don't think so.
So why do we torerate them if their leaders happen to wear tusbans?
Odette
Jun 24, 2009 at 6:28pm
To see the true face of Islam one needs to look no further than Neda's horrible, senseless death. This is what true muslims do to each other and what they seek to visit on us kuffirs as soon as they get the chance. If Canada had any sense, they would bar muslims from immigrating to Canada. We don't need their math and engineering skills, these are easily available elsewhere, in countries where people have much better values and know how to get along with others without being confrontational.
Up 2 Something
Jun 24, 2009 at 11:40pm
Mr. Dyer, don't you have suspicions about young people being taken advantage of, both in Iran and in the West? We had the orange campaign in Ukraine, the rose campaign in Georgia and now the green campaign in Iran.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRwUZ-u6KFo
MaxS
Jun 28, 2009 at 4:46pm
"Well, if the CIA wants to kill some people and attribute that to the government elements, then choosing women is an appropriate choice, because the death of a woman draws more sympathy," Ghadiri said.
In response, CIA spokesman George Little said, "Any suggestion that the CIA was responsible for the death of this young woman is wrong, absurd and offensive."
Though the video appeared to show that she had been shot in the chest, Ghadiri said that the bullet was found in her head and that it was not of a type used in Iran.
"These are the methods that terrorists, the CIA and spy agencies employ," he said. "Naturally, they would like to see blood spilled in these demonstrations, so that they can use it against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is of the common methods that the CIA employs in various countries."
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/25/iran.ambassador/
Byron
Jul 2, 2009 at 8:34am
Excellent article, I think Gwynne D is dead on as usual, but I would have liked to hear his thoughts on the demographic typhoon sweeping Iran with 60% under 30 years of age. A large percentage of this demographic weren't even around for purges of 1989 that were 20 years ago.
I'm willing to bet that those tens of thousands that were hanged and executed were intellectuals and other enemies real or imagined were undoubtedly family members of these young Iranians. People never forgive those that kill their fathers, mothers, uncles, aunts, cousins or Clan members.
Factor in alienation against the clerics who are seen as the real power and authority in Iran. This election not only confirms that Ahmedinejad is simply their "boy" in power, but that this system of govt is not their own.
Personally, I think the pendulum will swing once these young Iranians move past anger and reach the threshold of contempt. You couple this with the pungent and seductive scent of perceived immortally of youth are all ingredients of revolt. Those in power are simply the architects of their own destruction.
Cesar Hechler
Jul 6, 2009 at 4:37pm
The problem here is the dichotomy of convictions between those in power in Iran and those who desire change. The young ideologist is not ready to use violence as a means of bringing about the change that is so necessary in that country. The hardcore old militant Islamist has no qualms about using murder as a weapon against anyone who challenges their stranglehold on power. Let me emphasize the word 'almost' in the next sentence: one almost wishes that the Bush administration did invade Iran since their ideologies included violence as a means to change as well. Unfortunately, that method would have opened up whole bunches of cans of worms that would have probably been far worse than a few protesters being massacred. I feel a lot of pity for the young people of Iran. They can taste freedom, but are blocked by mindless sociopath thugs and won't betray their pacifist ideology by killing in return. A total Catch-22 if I ever saw one.