Real Estate

Vancouver pharmacist Alym Abdulla said that low interest rates persuaded him to jump into the real-estate market and buy a downtown condominium.
Vancouver real-estate market bounces back
Is there any connection between the 2010 Winter Games and a remarkable recovery in the Vancouver housing market?
Even though he had never purchased real estate before, Alym Abdulla could sense that the market was heating up as he began looking at downtown condos last spring. The 24-year-old pharmacist started seeing suites in late March, and before long he realized that some of the units were receiving multiple offers from prospective buyers.
“I must have looked at close to 50 places,” Abdulla told the Georgia Straight in a recent interview in his living room. “I put in offers on two other places that didn’t go through because the market started to pick up.”
He said he was getting discouraged and was ready to quit when his real-estate agent, Stu Bell, recommended that he check out a home in a Bosa-developed building near the corner of Hornby and Smithe streets. When Abdulla entered the suite in the middle of May, he was immediately impressed by the layout, which featured two full bedrooms, each with an en suite bathroom, on either side of the living room. “The thing that really sold me on this place was the balcony,” he said. “It’s quite large. It makes you feel like you’re not trapped in your little shoebox downtown.”
Abdulla ended up paying the $508,000 list price. He said he bought then because he wanted to take advantage of the low interest rates. With a smile, he acknowledged that some of his friends look at him differently now that he’s a homeowner: “One of my friends who I used to live with in university, he’s like, ‘I feel since you bought your place, you’ve matured. You’ve completely changed in the way that you are. Before, we used to live the student lifestyle. Now, you’re always cleaning your place. You have plants. You look after them. You’ve even got a cat now. It’s like you’re an adult.’ ”
Last spring’s brisk sales activity took some people by surprise after what Vancouver real-estate marketer Cameron McNeill has referred to as the “terrible nuclear winter in our industry”, which took place in 2008 and early 2009. Now as the Olympic Games are fewer than 100 days away, the sales-to-listings ratio has increased fourfold compared with a year ago. Buyers have been snapping up units in large, competitively priced projects like District in the South Main area and the Maynards Block on the southeast side of the Cambie Street Bridge. Last month, 680 condos sold in Vancouver through the multiple-listing service, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, a 186-percent increase over the 238 condos sold in October 2008.
Demand has been especially heavy for single-family houses in upscale neighbourhoods. For example, the real-estate board reported that on Vancouver’s West Side, the benchmark price—almost $1.5 million—was up 16.6 percent in October over the same month in 2008. In West Vancouver, the benchmark price for a detached house was up 24.6 percent over October 2008.
So is all this activity in Vancouver’s real-estate market linked to the city hosting the 2010 Winter Games? McNeill, whose company sold more than a billion dollars worth of real estate in the hot housing market of 2007, told the Straight by phone that he thinks the Olympics will keep a spotlight on Vancouver and magnify positive fundamental factors driving demand. According to him, those factors include low interest rates, a shortage of downtown land, good provincial government stewardship of the economy, and a safe investment climate.
McNeill added that it doesn’t make sense to compare Vancouver—which has broad international appeal—to other Winter Games host cities. “Who wants to live in Salt Lake City?” he asked. “Lillehammer? I didn’t know that town existed until the Olympics happened.”
McNeill also claimed that Vancouver is the second most densely populated city in North America behind New York. He believes that our compact urban environment, coupled with a stable financial system, makes Vancouver a safe place to buy. In his eyes, this makes the city “the Swiss bank of international real estate”.
“I think the Olympics creates a euphoria,” he stated. “But honestly, I don’t think prices are going to spike preceding or post-Olympics significantly. I believe the real benefit of the Olympics is going to come in one, two, three, four years down the road.”
Bob Rennie’s company Rennie Marketing Systems has sold billions of dollars of real estate in Vancouver. Rennie also told the Straight by phone that he always thought the effect of the Games would be felt in future years. “It’s after the Olympics that we’re going to see the impact on real estate,” he said, noting that Vancouver has a much higher profile than other recent Winter Games host cities. “I don’t believe that anyone ran back to Turin or Lillehammer or Salt Lake City…to buy a secondary residence or to move the family to safety or to move some money to safety. Vancouver is on the map. We’re a world city. We’re a brand.”



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It is a one sided story from the perspective of the real estate industry.
If the Georgia Straight can't even do a level headed story on real estate then Vancouver is doomed to always have unrealistic price bubbles and crashes.
Interest rates are just about the lowest they've ever been in history, and have nowhere to go but up. Do the math. What will your mortgage be in 5 years if interest rates go up even a couple points?
You can also find a list of the top 70 cities by personal income in the world on the same website. Interested Vancouverites will find that their city doesn't crack the top 73 while Toronto and Montreal are both in the top 25 with real estate prices a fraction of those in Vancouver. Food for thought, if you know how to think on your own...
It's stupid to buy place you can't afford. They are selling they life for houses.
Pharmacist make enough to carry that kind of mortgage easily. Some people are over leveraged but those who have worked hard to get a good education in solid fields that are not affected by a poor economy will actually come out ahead.
"Then there are the ubiquitous residential real estate forecasts, which keep consumers posted about the state of the housing industry practically around the clock. It’s rare, however, to hear a realtor predict a steep decline in housing prices"
http://www.straight.com/article-210570/media-consultants
So, why is he now writing an article that mainly features real estate industry people?
Such an indulgent piece of crap, dripping more material goods into the mouths of overleveraged yuppies with no discussion of the down side of all this hooplah.. Do you see any problem with the CREA mantra to buying now "when interest rates are low." Think about this, what happens to your property value when interest rates go up? In 1989 interest rates went to 18% in Canada. Remember, we have just eeked out of the the worse economic disaster since the depression. Government fueled stimulus will end, our biggest trading partner, the United States, may deflate to nothing under a crushing 12 trillion in debt. bottom line, rates gotta go up. So, hold onto your $400 jeans Yaletown, you may not have the cash to buy another pair in a few years, but that's ok because you live in a little glass box ( for now..)
Jim, renting may be cheaper, but owning is always more advantageous as he has the power and freedom to rent out his place and feed that money into his mortgage. Otherwise, he has the luxury of living in a spectacular location till he decides to sell.
Like others have said, this is not sustainable growth.
I would expect this of the Vancouver Sun, but c'mon Georgia Straight, you're better than this!
First, the featured buyer didn't disclose any of the vital facts about his purchase, except the price tag of just over half a million dollars for ... a two bedroom apartment! What was his downpayment, and where did that come from at age 25? Could it have been well-to-do parents by any chance? Second, what IS his actual, annual income, and how will his monthly payments change, as a percent of his income, in five years time when the interest rate is adjusted? Or is he on a floating rate now? None of this is detailed.
Second the article doesn't deal with the issue of prices relative to rents. If the apartment this pharmacist bought sells for $500,000, what would it rent for?
Rod Smelser
In fact neither New York City nor Vancouver are in the top ten of densest cities in North America. You want density, move to Ottawa, Montreal or Toronto.
I deleted your other comment because you called somebody a liar. I felt that was offside because it implies an intent to mislead on a regular basis.
Charlie Smith
No, Eva. Owning is decidedly NOT always more advantageous. The "power and freedom" (!) to rent out his place?!? Then he will also have to find accommodation, will he not? Eva, your comment is so (willfully) ignorant that I assume you must be someone whose income is directly tied to the real estate industry. Am I right?
Interest on 400K using TD interest rates today
Variable @ 2.25% = $750/Month
5 Yr Fixed @ 4.780% = $1,593/Month
Sure, renting is still probably going to be cheaper and much less risky. But as the saying goes: "nothing ventured, nothing gained"
So in the case that capitalism does not implode and interest rates do not skyrocket, this guy and the thousands of others like him may make some money. On the flip side, well I think that's well covered in this thread.
Just a couple numbers to give context to the alarmists:
Interest on 400K using TD interest rates today
Variable @ 2.25% = $750/Month
5 Yr Fixed @ 4.780% = $1,593/Month
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Dustin, you're not even in the ball park. You're figures are so far out it's laughable, ... assuming people are in a mood to accept egregious errors as a sign of ineptitude rather than something else.
From the Vancity mortgage calculator:
Mortgage Principal = $400,000
Amortization = 25 years
i rate = 2.25%
Monly payment = $1,742.45
Total payments = $522,734.26
Total interest = $122,734.26
If the i rate is moved up to 4.78%:
Monly payment = $2,276.58
Total payments = $682,973.63
Total interest = $282,973.73
Rod Smelser
Beth
Now, back to Vancouver proper. Population growth is definitely not putting a strain on housing supply. Between 01-06 population growth was a scant 5.9%, which is an average of 1.18% per year. That means each year approximately 7000 people move into the city. Construction of new dwellings has pretty much kept pace with growth. There is approximately 1 dwelling in the city for every 2 people. This is about on par with Toronto and Montreal.
Salaries are surely not a driving factor behind the high costs of real estate. In 2006 the median family income in the city was a mere $58 505. According to the CMHC mortgage calculator, with $10 000 down, 25 years at 4.75%, a maximum mortgage for that salary would be approximately 200k. There are no 200k dwellings in Vancouver. Well, a few but very little.
So, what is it then that is driving the market? Speculators, second and third home owners? Overseas buyers? Apparently Bing Thom debunked the overseas buyer myth but I think there sample contained some flaws because there are a number of condo developments in the city that were marketed solely overseas. (Overseas meaning any area outside of Canada). Specifically high end developments. Bing Thom's study did not factor this in.
"But what few Canadians realize is that the housing market has avoided collapse (prices are down 32 per cent in the U.S.) because the Harper Conservatives directed the CMHC to change the mortgage rules to effectively make the Canadian government the biggest sub-prime lender in the world. What's almost as alarming as this reckless policy is that no one in the financial media is talking about it, even though everyone knows the facts."
RickW
this is a stat for CMA - if you look at metro Vancouver I think the author is probably bang on.
Seems some of us are "denser" than others lol
I am a 35 y/o single guy/parent working for the provincial governement. So in otherwords, salary under 50K. My New 1000sq ft condo 2 bedroom 2 bathroom = asking price was 341K. With my agent, I negotiated heavily, the final sale price: 226K How about that for a deal ! My mortgage is the same as what I was paying in rent. Condos are now back selling in my area in the 300K mark. But I also had little to no debt when I bought. 10% down and I still have a very good life. So anything is possible.
Is the price of real estate really going up or are people willing to dump cash in exchange for something they can use such as a roof over their head. Inflation will make winners out of the brave souls who take risks.
Rent - give your money away to buy someone else a property.
Buy - your money is still your money.
One of my regrets in life is that I was an idiot and rented for way too long. I could have been weathy by now, as where I am from the property market went crazy. So a few years of living in a small place would have made me a small fortune.
Luckily since moving to Vancouver I saw the potential here, and bought. Now I own three places, and other people are buying two of them for me.
Unless you are very good, your job will not make you rich. Once you own one property, if the market rises and you use your equity, you can own multiple places and take other peoples $$$ for your future.
It's a no brainer.
Investigate it yourself for the area and housing style you’re interested in living in. Find a potential place you want to live – a building, or a neighbourhood, whatever. Then find a place you’d like to rent, and what the rental rate is. Find a unit that’s as similar as possible on the ownership side, and find out what it’s selling for (or better yet, actually sold for if there are some recent sales). Just divide one by the other. (If utilities are included in the rent, try to estimate what those would be and back them out for accuracy)
The rule of thumb is that at approximately 125X or less, it’s worthwhile to own the home, and would even make a good investment (buy two!). Around 125-150X it’s roughly break-even to own. At 150X+ and you’re paying a premium to own. 200X+ and it makes zero financial sense to buy, so you better attach a pretty hefty premium to “pride of ownership”!
So, hit MLS/homebase/viewit/craigslist to find rentals and sales in your area, and just do some quick division.
i.e. In Toronto, one house sold for $562k in August 2009. By September, it was up for rent at $2400 — the purchase price was 234X the rent! I wouldn’t want to be that “investor”.
Here is my 2 cents to this question:
Simple fact most people don't realize or understand - Vancouver is a very safe place with easy access to bank your money when compared to most of the other destination cities for immigration.
A well-to-do Korean, Japanese, Chinese, Iranian, Turkish and even Bristish, American, and/or Australian family will find putting their money in Vancouver real estate a fine choice. Immigration laws are reasonable, Canada is pretty much shielded from political instabilities as compaired to many parts of the world, and the multicultural atmosphere in Vancouver is more than welcoming.
A lot of these folks from abroad who buy up real estate here do not care about whether they get a 1 % or 5% return on their money. They only care that they still have their money. Heck even a 2% annual decline is a good price to pay to make sure the bulk is still there a decade from now. What excess money they can get out of Korea or Iran or China, they just want it invested in some safe vehicles which will for sure still be there a decade or two from now.
These folks will send their wives and kids first, either to visit, to study or to actually be landed immigrants right away, buy a piece of real estate, then send more money whenever they can, buy more real estate. Get their immigation settled, and be the next generation of Vancouverites. You see them in N. Van, in Yaletown, in Coal Harbour. Go to Two Harbour Green and ask the concierge how many locals live there. You'll find out the officical language there is probably Farsi or Korean.
A massive chunk of the real estate market in Vancouver is owned by these folks. Totally unaffected by cyclical upturns or downturns. To them buying real estate here is not a matter of good investment with good return or not. They will keep coming to Vancouver and continue to sink their foreign made $$$ in real estate here for years to come.
A relaxed accounting legislation announced in Beijing, you'll see sold out condo projects in Richmond a month from now.
The slightest political gesture by the U.S. threatening Tehran, you'll see multiple offers in N. Van buying up single family houses.
Local fundamentals like, interest rates, supply, local demand, job market....etc. only affect a portion of the total real estate market here. It's complicated by a lot of other factors outside of North America.
Most people who buy real estate, like our pharmacist friend who is over leveraged spending around 40% or more of his income on his mortgage with another 30% to 40% in taxes leaving little to live on or enjoy life, in Vancouver are gambling that real estate prices will keep going up and up. I'm a pessimist or maybe just a middle aged cynic expecting to see a devaluation in housing as the baby boomers like me die off and we have a glut of housing in the market in 10 years.
Money from proceeds of crime buys up residential, industrial, commercial real estate and businesses everywhere in the Lower Mainland. These guys do not care whether the market goes up or down. Foundamentals mean nothing to them. Their cash is useless anyway until filtered through webs of laundering schemes. Real estate is part of that laundry machine.
You see them everywhere, and every now and then, you hear them on the news. Individual gangsters buy up 10, 20 houses at a time to set up grow-ops for partners to operate. Several were busted in Richmond in the past couple of years. Money losing businesses with no customers continue to operate for years like a lot of those restaurants on Kingsway. On a bigger scale, even big development companies might just be a front for some offshore holding companies set up by ex-government officials siphoning e.g. Chinese or Malaysian tax payer money from offshore accounts to Vancouver to make clean.
"this is a stat for CMA - if you look at metro Vancouver I think the author is probably bang on.
Seems some of us are "denser" than others lol"
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I think you know whereof you speak in the matter of personal densities.
The Vancouver CMA covers the same territory as Metro Vancouver.
Rod Smelser
"I am a 35 y/o single guy/parent working for the provincial governement. So in otherwords, salary under 50K. My New 1000sq ft condo 2 bedroom 2 bathroom = asking price was 341K. With my agent, I negotiated heavily, the final sale price: 226K How about that for a deal ! My mortgage is the same as what I was paying in rent. Condos are now back selling in my area in the 300K mark. "
==============================
What is your salary per year?
What was the downpayment, and where did it come from, your own savings from wages, or a direct transfer of tens of thousands from your parents?
What is the amortization period, the interest rate, and the monthly payment? If you were to rent this suite out to a responsible tenant, what rent could you reasonably expect?
Rod Smelser
Wow, this is totally from one perspective: that of the people who want to profit, not of the people who want to afford a place to live. "The industry" is a keyword for vultures. What's bad for them is good for us (since the opposite, high housing costs, seem to be so delightful to them while shitty for us).
the article is _quoting_ an interviewee who claimed Vancouver to be the 2nd densest in NA. He was wrong, but the West End alone is, in fact, the 2nd most densely populated area in NA, after NY.
"I'll never figure our how these 20 somethings are buying condos? I'm in my 40's and can't afford anything in Vancouver."
===================================
I believe that in most cases the unstated mystery ingredient is parental largesse. That's why I have asked about downpayments and their sources.
Rod Smelser
Buy - your money is still your money."
Another version:
Rent - give your money away to a landlord
Buy - give your money away to a bank (interest), the city (property taxes) and the insurance company
What else could explain the publication of such a poor article?
Beth
"She lived frugally, paid nominal rent to her parents and contributed labour around the house. Think about it: that's 60 months of savings from choosing to live at home and work like a dog in, yes, her twenties. 60 months x $800 a month in savings: $48,000 down payment. And she bought her own place in, yes, her twenties. It can be done"
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With parent's help, yes, it can be done. That's what I have said all along.
That could take the form of an actual cash transfer from truly wealthy parents, or in the case of middle income parents, who bought into the Vancouver market 30 years ago when it was far less expensive relative to average wages, it could take the form of providing accommodation at below market rents ("nominal rent" in your wording, Beth).
Even so, if someone were managing to save $800 per month, presumably there would at least be some interest earned, so the amount accumulated after five full years should be more than the $48 thousand, shouldn't it? Beth, I wonder if this friend whose situation you claim to know so well settled for a GIC type investment portfolio, or if she went for some mix of equity based mutual funds or direct stock purchases, in which case she could have accumulated considerably more than $48 thousand, which is really just her cash inputs to the portfolio.
And what was your friend's income in those five years? What kind of education and occupation did she have that allowed her to save that much when there were all kinds of other consumer demands from cars to clothes to jewelry to vacations to spas and cosmetic surgery and liposuction treatments all vying for their piece of that unspent income? Your friend must be a very disciplined individual!
And isn't it kind of funny that it was exactly $800 every month for five years? Did this enterprising, self-starting, go-getter with parental assistance never get a raise or a promotion? Didn't the company she worked for recognize her outstanding character and initiative?
And what about you, Beth? Why didn't you follow her example? If you had, you too could have become a Vancouver homeowner!
Rod Smelser
Beth
Jealous?
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No. I own my own place in Maple Ridge. But I think housing prices in many BC cities are above a long run equilibrium level and I object to intentionally misleading fairy stories about people's finances.
Rod Smelser
So, who is right?
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