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PrintGwynne Dyer: Forget about the reunification of Cyprus
The window of opportunity actually slammed shut in 2004, when Greek-Cypriot voters overwhelmingly rejected a United Nations plan to reunite the divided island of Cyprus. A week later the Greek-Cypriot government was allowed to join the European Union anyway, while the Turkish-Cypriots, who had voted in favour of the reunification plan, were frozen out. But some people just won’t give up.
A year ago, with new leadership on both sides, the Greek- and Turkish-Cypriots embarked on another round of talks aimed at reunifying the island. As late as this September, Alexander Downer, the UN secretary-general’s special adviser on Cyprus, said that “what you have here are two leaders who are very committed to a successful outcome.” But good intentions are not enough.
Dimitris Christofias, the Greek-Cypriot president, and Mehmet Ali Talat, his Turkish-Cypriot counterpart, are old friends. They both genuinely want to put the country back together, but they have made little progress and after 50 meetings time is running out.
There will be elections in the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (TRNC) in April, and the new president there is likely to be hostile to reunification.
Last time, in 2004, it was the Greek-Cypriot president who persuaded the voters on his side of dividing line to reject the UN proposal. There are bound to be times when one side or the other is led by somebody who wants to die in the last ditch. But there are also bound to be intervals, like the present one, when the leaders on both sides are in favour of unification.
So why talk of windows of opportunity shutting? Even if it doesn’t happen now, surely it will happen sooner or later. Alas, not necessarily.
Geopolitical realities normally change as slowly as the continents drift, but the tectonic plates are now moving quickly in the eastern Mediterranean. The chance of Turkey ever joining the European Union is now shrinking rapidly towards zero–and without the incentive of that goal, why would Ankara ever force the Turkish population of North Cyprus back into a union with the Greek-dominated “Republic of Cyprus”?
Turkey, which first applied to join the EU 22 years ago, and has been an official candidate for the past decade. The current obstacle is the opposition of Germany, Austria, and France. They are all governed by conservatives who believe a Muslim-majority country has no place in what they still see as a “Christian” Europe.
That is ugly nonsense, but not necessarily a deal-breaker: those governments will probably be replaced one day by others that take a more relaxed view of religious differences. After all, a clear majority of EU citizens are not interested in religion at all. Greece and the Republic of Cyprus would also veto Turkish membership today, but a deal between the two Cypriot communities would obviously remove that roadblock.
If anti-Muslim prejudice were the only obstacle to Turkey’s entry, then it could still become a EU member one of these days, but the tectonic shift is not driven by whoever is in power today in Paris, Berlin or Vienna.
It is driven by a growing concern in the EU that global warming is going to generate huge numbers of desperate refugees in Africa and the Middle East–“climate refugees”–who will end up trying to get into Europe.
Never mind if this is just, or even if it is an accurate vision of the future. If this view comes to prevail in the EU, the main question becomes: where do we hold the line against waves of climate refugees?
Should we try to control the current frontier along the eastern borders of Greece and Bulgaria (about 300 km, 175 miles), or bring Turkey into the EU and try to control 1,100 km (750 miles) of borders with Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and Georgia? Not rocket science, is it?
Unless it is overwhelmed by climate change, Turkey will be all right outside the EU. It will overtake Germany in population within a decade, and it already has a higher per capita income than several Eastern European members of the EU.
Turkey was a second-rank great power until the end of the 19th century, and it is likely to be back in that role by the mid-21st.
But if that is the role Turkey will be playing in another generation, why would it want to withdraw its troops from North Cyprus and push the Turkish-Cypriots into a single state with the Greek-Cypriots now? Why would the Turkish-Cypriots themselves want to resume their place as an unloved minority in a Greek-run state, rather than retain their own state in close association with the rising regional great power?
The reply to that question 10 years ago would have been: because Turkish-Cypriots are so poor. But the past decade has seen very rapid economic growth in North Cyprus. The gulf in living standards between the two parts of the island has dramatically narrowed, so reunification no longer seems the only escape from poverty for Turkish-Cypriots.
This is not the last chance for the reunification of Cyprus; 2004 was. Greek-speaking Cyprus is prosperous and secure. Turkish-speaking Cyprus is approaching the same state. And Turkey itself no longer has an incentive to support the creation of a reunified, federal state in Cyprus.
Partition is permanent. It’s over.
Gwynne Dyer's latest book, Climate Wars, was published recently in Canada by Random House and Vintage.
Comments
The Greeks were attempting genocide when the Turkish army came to protect the Turkish Cypriots as guarantors....
If you're such a historical expert please explain how many Turkish cypriots were killed,raped,murdered,tortured and displaced as a result of the Greek soldiers before the Turkish army came to the island?
How much land and property in the south of the island is now occupied illegally by greek Cypriots ...?
This is not a one sided story.... There is only one solution...permanent partition!
You cannot force people to live together and the Turkish Cypriots do not want to live with murderers and liars....
Mr Dwyer is at worst one of these journalists with no legal education who comment on the multi thousand page Annan plan without reading it or at least understanding it based purely on Lord Hannay's cheap media sound bites.(Lord Hannay was the Brit who was charged with ensuring that any "peace settlement" firmly reestablishes the British bases on Cyprus. ). If he has read the plan and understood it then it is scary that this bloke is published in serious media in the 21st Century. Mr Dwyer as a great friend of the regime that runs Turkey suggests that "time is running out". Why does he do this? Turkey is facing serious humiliation as the chickens come home roost this December when its poor completion of tasks like human rights reforms are examined. At this rate Turkey ongoing human rights breaches including the ongoing ethnic cleansing of Cyprus mean it may as well join a different club- a human rights rich organization like the EU may as well let in North Korea or Iran.
Shame on him.
As for the Greek Cypriot propoganda - my word, just mention Cyprus and they sprout this same garbage like parrots. Turkey rescued the Turkish Cypriot people when the Greek Cypriots, and Greeks tried Genocide. Their property was wrenched from them until, although owning over 30% of the land, they were pushed into 3% - little enclaves. Now these Greek Cypriots, happily building on Turkish Cypriot land (for instance the existing Larnaca airport and the new one too) want justice for them, none for anyone else. Of course they also want Istanbul to be returned. :)
Gwynne Dyers article is about "where do we go from here?".
The comments made by other readers only refer to events of 1974, no one has mentioned what was going on before 1974, was the Cyprus Goverment looking after its minority citizens? How many times Turkey complained about what was going on in the island to UN and the world, did anyone take any notice, did anyone help the minority Cypriot citizens?
My message to Greeks in general is, stop telling everyone that you lost alot, if you play with fire you will get burnt, you got what you asked for, get over it, thats life.
Once the Balkan nations are in the EU, the next entrants will probably be Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Their northern lands will be very productive agriculturally when global warming hits. It might take 20 or 30 years though. The EU citizens really don't want Turkey. Over 700 million people. The border with Greece, the Stans, Mongolia, and China will need protecting: build a new Great Wall with China.
The other productive land after global warming strikes is in Canada and Alaska. The USA and Canada will slowly merge, probably very slowly, perhaps with Australia and New Zealand piggy-backing. Almost 400 million people.
The day will come when these two big North Pole based entities will begin merging, partly to pool control over the best agricultural land in a globally-warmed world, partly to counterbalance China's 1.3 billion people with their own 1.1 billion person market. Of course, the United States, Canada, and Australia will continue encouraging immigration in the meantime, bringing in the cleverest and wealthiest, who will increasingly be plucked from mainland China.
Of course, such an entity needs a working language, and a capital city, if only a token one. Most people will speak English as a first language. Perhaps the French, Germans, and Russians will let English be the language, if London is the capital, it being far outside the United States but very close to Continental Europe.
London will once again be the capital of the world!
The article says that the economy in the north is catching up. But the boom is based on the construction industry which is in trouble too....Turkey would dearly love not to have to bale out the economy in the north every year
As for the myth of the Greeks attacking the Turkish Cypriots, the truth is that in the 1950s the Turkish Cypriots were engaged in a brutal terrorist campaign to partition the island and a part of their strategy was self-induced isolation from Greek Cypriots and the legitimate government of the island. The only ethnic cleansing that has occurred in Cyprus was when the Turks forced out 200,000 Greeks from the north of the island in 1974, using tactics of massacre, rape and looting.
The British couldn't cope with the Greek aspirations for self (excluding the Turks)-government, and the rest is a history of Greek bullying and exclusion of the Turkish Cypriots, leading to attempted genocide under the banner of Enosis.
A two-state separation making the current de facto situation de jure is the only sensible solution. Such a system has already worked well for over thirty years, and with the Turkish north recognised by the international community there is no reason why Cyprus should ever be a world problem again. The Turkish Cypriots might want to come together with the Greek Cypriots at some time in the future, without Greek and EU coercion, which is what they are exposed to now; but I doubt it.
Czechoslovakia has separated, as have a number of Balkan countries, so there are plenty of precedents.
One third of the population were made homeless in a period of time amounting to about two weeks. The toponomy of the north has been changed entirely. Churches and relics not "Turkish" are being deliberately destroyed. Settlers from mainland Turkey outnumber Turkish Cypriots. Does this sound like the acts of a credible Guarantor?
If theft, and "cleansing" are reasonable acts of a Modern State, then Turkey will have her way, as Mr. Dyer proposes. However, if one recalls the thirty-five years before the Annan Plan, the siting of Rauf Denktash by every single Secretary General of the United Nations for his Intransigence comes to mind. It was not the only "UN" plan. On a positive note, one thing this plan and the referendum proves is that Cypriots want unity, even if Mr. Annan's efforts were rejected for whatever reasons.
In Cyprus, the issue is not a "Greek" vs. "Turk" problem. It remains an issue of tolerance, and the issue of Mankind's vision for itself.
I'm not sanguine about Islamic states. Yes, I hate that religion. But I also hate all organized religion. And I hate capitalism. And I see that as a religion.
In simple language, It's not that I don't see Turkey as civilized and a wonderful addition to a European Union (which I'm not sure of). Rather, I see this world as barbaric and Turkey, inside the EU or outside of it, is a part of it. You have the barbarism of big powers doing their neoliberal, imperialist capitalism. And you have the barbarism of cultures that have acquired sick, persistant elements. Both worlds overlap, in that regard, of course. For example, I have such a high regard for Hugo Chavez and his loyalty to his people. And then I cringe when I hear of his admiration and/or support for the worst monsters. And then there's Saddam Hussein, a monster as I'm sure everyone would agree. Except that Iraq under Saddam, in many ways, was much, much better off than it came to be under Paul Bremer et al.
But, unlike Gwynne, I don't believe that division, rancour, and worse, are permanent features of life on planet earth.
This person is Greek Antonis Angastiniotis listen what he said about his own people:
It was Greeks Cypriots who massacred
Turkish villages of Aloda ,Maratha and Sandalari . It was The Greek Cypriots of the
Neighbouring villages, along with army personnel, attacked these villages. They shot the children, the mothers and any old people of these villages, 126 people who were killed, human rights Greek activist Antonis Angastiniotis had called on the Greek Cypriot people to apologize to the Turkish Cypriot people, prosecute the culprits and pay compensation to the families of the deceased.
In response to Veruka's statement about rapes and murders and abortions ten years later -eh?- I will just mention EOKA, Samsun and Enosis. This should do the trick where clarification of who actually initiated and carried out attempted ethnic cleansing is concerned. And as for the actual word ethnic; are Cypriots all that ethnically different anyway? But again, given the obvious contempt and hatred shown in this post for the Turkish Cypriots, why do the Greeks want unification anyway? Sorry to keep bringing reason and facts into this debate.
So plans,un regulations,eu regulations,constitution,international laws.,all of them are not important for us.Because ,our religion is different,culture is different,language is different,, many things ,
We are happy.Greeks are also happy.They are eu member,they are usind all eu fonds,credits to them selves,they dont give Turks.Why Greeks want to live with Turks ?
There is no problem now,Greeks are happy,Turks are happy.
And Turks does not want to live in the same goverment with Greeks.
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