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Gwynne Dyer: France proposes pooling ballistic missile-firing submarines with Great Britain

By Gwynne Dyer,

As a general rule, we should all encourage and support international cooperation. Once in a while, however, a proposal comes along that is so disconnected from reality that you check the date in case it’s April Fool’s Day. There is now such a proposal on the table.

The French government, according to a report in the Guardian on March 19, has suggested that France and Britain pool their ballistic missile-firing submarines (“boomers”), in effect merging their nuclear deterrent forces. This would allow some savings on operational costs, since at the moment each country always has at least one “boomer” at sea.

Under the French proposal, they could just keep one submarine at sea, hidden and invulnerable in the mid-ocean depths, ready to retaliate against an attack on either Britain or France. That would leave the other crew safely ashore with plenty of time to contemplate the huge can of worms that this strategy would open.

The whole policy of always having one boomer at sea is a leftover from a different era anyway. During the Cold War, when countries worried about the other side launching a nuclear Pearl Harbour, it made sense never to have ALL your missile-firing subs in port where they could easily be destroyed.

It’s the classic logic of deterrence. If the other side knows for certain that at least one submarine will survive, and shoot back with dozens of unstoppable nuclear warheads, then it won’t attack in the first place. That’s why Britain has four “Vanguard” class boomers and France has three “Triomphant” class boats with a fourth building: so there will always be one at sea.

However, the Cold War ended almost 20 years ago. No great power lives in fear of an attack from any other. Neither Britain nor France is within range of any of the non-great powers that have or are alleged to want nuclear weapons, like North Korea or Iran. Why don’t they just leave the boats in harbour, maybe taking one out for a training cruise from time to time?

But if Britain and France insist on maintaining these patrols, then they have to realize that one submarine cannot provide cover for both countries. The idea was apparently discussed for the first time when President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London in March 2008, but it’s not likely that either man really understands the theory of deterrence. So here, for their benefit, is a potted version of the strategy.

Let’s suppose that it’s a British submarine out on patrol, and some evil country strikes France with nuclear weapons, eliminating all of France’s boomers in port. Does the British submarine retaliate with its own nuclear weapons, knowing that to do so means that Britain may also be attacked by nuclear weapons?

If I were French, I wouldn’t trust British promises about this. And if I were running the evil country in question, I would likewise doubt that Britain would really retaliate against me on France’s behalf, knowing that I might then hit British cities too. So deterrence fails, and all that money was wasted.

Soon after Sarkozy met with Brown in 2008, he said in a speech in Cherbourg: “Together with the United Kingdom, we have taken a major decision. It is our assessment that there can be no situation in which the vital interests of either of our two nations could be threatened without the vital interests of the other also being threatened.” Fine words, but not true.

In practice, when Britain has to choose between its loyalty to the European Union and its instinct to go with the United States, it almost always chooses the latter option. France has always had less faith in American judgment and in U.S. willingness to fight a nuclear war on Europe’s behalf, which is why it spent all that money over two generations to build a truly independent nuclear deterrent force.

The British nuclear deterrent force is different, since the missiles it uses have been American ever since 1962. There is no formal U.S. veto over the use of the missiles that are in British submarines, but those missiles are only leased by Britain and belong to a pool of missiles that also supplies American boomers. A missile that is in a British submarine this time around could be in an American one in its next service cycle.

The French navy must be furious at Sarkozy for offering, in effect, to combine their genuinely independent nuclear force with a British deterrent force that is very closely tied to the United States. Fortunately for France, the British navy doesn’t like the idea of job-sharing either, and can be counted on to resist, undermine, and ultimately kill the idea. The astonishing thing is that it ever got out into the public domain at all.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

Comments

Ryan C
Why not if it really does save money on operational costs. Sure it doesn't make complete sense as a deterrant but they don't really have, as Gwynne Dyer pointed out, anyone to deter in the first place. So why not?
 
miguel
Gwynne, I think you may have forgot that in two world wars, there was a British Expeditionary Force on the ground on the continent when Germany launched their attacks. Not a very able force perhaps, but there none the less.
Miguel
 
cameron
as we continue to learn , security is about little more than taxation . with millions of french , koreans ,iranians ,chinese etc living here in london the very idea of an ethnic war is false. a future fight for fuel ,food and water is looming ...keep booming regards cam
 
fred the head
war sucks for any human on this planet.
 
ErnestPayne
Well there used to be a Royal English Navy and a Royal Scottish Navy until the Act of Union. Perhaps the RN could build the subs and arm them with French missiles. Naming them would probably start a war between the two countries.
 
Georgew
Both countries are members of NATO, no? And thus pool nuclear resources and shared retaliation anyway? Is the author aware of the complete redundancy of the article?
 
 
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