 Prior to the 2005 election, the B.C. Liberals relied on Carole Taylor to keep the NDP out of power. Could history repeat itself in 2013? |
Today, Malcolm Parry's gossip column in the Vancouver Sun features a photo of former B.C. finance minister Carole Taylor with her husband, former Vancouver mayor Art Phillips.
The caption questions whether or not Taylor will return to politics.
Until she definitively and publicly declares that she's not interested in becoming the next B.C. Liberal leader, the NDP should assume that she's already running for the job.
Taylor is the only high-profile B.C. Liberal who has condemned the harmonized sales tax, which will jack up the price of many services by seven percent.
Premier Gordon Campbell's decision to introduce the tax with no public consultation has doomed his chance of ever getting reelected. He's a dead duck.
Taylor, a former Vancouver Board of Trade chair, has been appointed to numerous boards. The corporate bosses who fund the party will trust her not to tinker too much with campaign-finance reform, which would diminish their hold over B.C. politics.
From 2005 to 2009, she also didn't get in the way of Campbell's privatization agenda, which included selling off control of B.C. rivers.
And she kept quiet about cost overruns on the Canada Line and the expansion of the Vancouver Convention Centre. That will have further endeared her to the Vancouver Board of Trade.
As a former broadcaster and former CBC chair, Taylor has an unmatched ability to solicit positive media coverage.
Another plus from a political standpoint is her strong support within the Chinese Canadian business community. Her biggest drawback? The right-wing ideologues don't trust her, as demonstrated by her longstanding opposition to a harmonized sales tax.
Looking around the cabinet table, the only serious opponent to Taylor would be Health Services Minister Kevin Falcon.
He has the organizational skills, media savvy, combativeness, and a sufficiently pro-business orientation to attract a great deal of financial support.
Keep in mind that Falcon was the guy who advanced Campbell's deregulation agenda after the 2001 election.
Falcon also organized the Total Recall movement when Campbell was in opposition.
And Falcon has probably been the strongest proponent of public-private partnerships in government.
If Falcon can tap into B.C.'s rising religious right and cobble together some support in B.C.'s ethnic communities, he could easily move to the front of any B.C. Liberal leadership contest.
Surrey, where Falcon lives, is a hothouse of right-wing religious fervour and immigrant voters, so don't think for a moment that this isn't already on his mind.
The rest of the field would be no match for Taylor or Falcon, who has sometimes been derided as a "punk" by Burnaby's colourful mayor, Derek Corrigan.
The minister of aboriginal relations and reconciliation, George Abbott, might have the intellect for the job, but he's too boring to light any fires during a leadership campaign.
The transportation minister, Shirley Bond, is nearly as dull, which rules her out. If she runs, it would only be to throw her support behind the eventual winner and preserve her spot at the cabinet table.
Attorney General Mike de Jong is occasionally mentioned as a possible successor to Campbell, but he probably isn't close enough to the downtown Vancouver business community to get the job.
Environment Minister Barry Penner is too earnest. Education Minister Margaret MacDiarmid is too inexperienced.
Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources Minister Bill Bennett is too clumsy, as demonstrated by his intemperate e-mails and by a campaign ad that inflamed aboriginal people by implying that they don't pay tax.
The minister of everything, Rich Coleman, is likely serving out his last term in the legislature. If all this was happening in 2005, he and Chilliwack-Sumas MLA John Les would probably be among the front runners.
Peace River South MLA Blair Lekstrom doomed his chances by walking out of the caucus. This probably won't be forgiven for a while by his colleagues.
One dark horse could be Iain Black, the minister of small business, technology and economic development.
If Falcon were to stumble, Black could emerge as a right-of-centre alternative in an anybody-but-Taylor movement. He's a former high-tech executive who lives in Port Moody, which is one of Vancouver's more upper-crust suburbs.
Much is being made of Surrey mayor Dianne Watts's chance of becoming the next B.C. Liberal leader.
Watts probably doesn't even know where the washroom is in the legislature, let alone any of the house rules or the pressing issues in other parts of the province.
If the party chose her, it would be a sign of how desperate the B.C. Liberals have become in the wake of the HST fiasco.
NDP MLAs find themselves in a difficult position because Taylor or Falcon could make mincemeat of their leader, Carole James, in 2013.
But if the Opposition members state the obvious, they'll be branded as disloyal. So they'll probably sit on the sidelines until it's too late to do anything about it.
Those on the left who worry about the prospect of Kevin Falcon becoming premier and further privatizations can take action.
One option would be to buy a membership in the NDP and try to oust James as leader next year.
There are many potential successors in the NDP who could probably compete more effectively against Falcon or Taylor than the current leader.
On the leftish side, they include Mayor Corrigan or his wife Kathy (who is the MLA for Burnaby-Deer Lake), Vancouver-Kingsway MLA Adrian Dix, Vancouver-Mount Pleasant MLA Jenny Kwan, Vancouver-West End MLA Spencer Herbert, Skeena MP Nathan Cullen, and Burnaby-New Westminster MP Peter Julian, among others.
On the right side of the party, Port Coquitlam MLA Mike Farnworth, Cariboo North MLA Bob Simpson, anti-HST rabble rouser Bill Tieleman, former acting NDP leader Joy MacPhail, Juan de Fuca MLA John Horgan, and Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson would all likely provide the NDP with a better chance against Taylor or Falcon.
If the NDP wanted a really lively campaign, it would install populist Delta North MLA Guy Gentner as the next leader. He's a bit like a left-wing version of Ralph Klein in that he understands how the average person thinks about politics.
Will the NDP take out its leader in time for the 2013 election? Only if someone gets the process underway this year.
Follow Charlie Smith on Twitter at twitter.com/csmithstraight.
Should the B.C. NDP replace Carole James as party leader before the 2013 election?
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Comments
She’s been out of the legislature so long she can say she’s untainted by BC Rail, the HST, etc. But she probably still has friends in the party. Her social views would probably steal votes from the NDP. She’s a rich white woman, so the media might go ga-ga over her just like they did for Carole Taylor.
Don’t know if her husband, Mark Marissen, would be an asset or a liability, though.
I didn't include Christy Clark because I think she likes her current job as a talk-show host more than she would like being premier. Right now, most of the people who listen to her like her, whereas when she was in politics, many people disliked her. She also suffered a dismal defeat when she sought the NPA mayoral nomination in 2005. This might have turned her off politics because she hasn't returned since then.
Having said that I will never vote for the NDP. Here is hoping to a third partying coming.
I've been angry over the issues of careless promises being made with no intention of following them later. Liberals rely on the groBe Luge as considered strategy and the 25% portion of idiot voters keeps buying in. James seems careful to avoid promises that would make short term sense politically but be near impossible to implement. Example: carbon tax and HST which she opposed but does not promise to discard. She keeps options open, which is the sensible path. Maybe she believes that when she makes a promise, she intends to keep it.
Gordon Campbell, Hansen, Falcon and other old style politicos have no difficulty saying anything whether they believe it to be true or not. I know too little about Carole Taylor but I admired her husband Art Phillips. It was he who kept me in the Liberal Party in the sixties but that was in the day when party members interacted with the big guys and participated in grass roots examination of party policies. Now, even the MLAs don't have that privilege, as demonstrated by caucus learning about HST hours before it was announced to the public.
BTW, I once was a Liberal but I have reformed.
In the end its about getting the opinion of as many voters as possible right?
Just saying.
I'm no Liberal voting money grubber, but I couldn't help vote in a party that pushes policies which go directly against our constitutional rights.
Sorry Norm, but James is not only a radical leftist, she's a total wacko.
It's true that the NDP under Carole James outperformed the Mike Harcourt-led and Glen Clark-led NDP in percentage of the popular vote. But in 2009, there was a record low turnout, so the percentage was of a smaller pie. A more dynamic leader would have convinced more people to vote, which might have led to the defeat of the B.C. Liberals in 2009. Carole James is not that popular in the suburbs of Vancouver, which is where elections are won and lost. The NDP shouldn't have lost two seats in Burnaby, given the weakness of its opponents. The NDP lost a majority of seats in Vancouver. With a new leader, it might win Surrey-Tynehead and Surrey-Panorama, as well as North Vancouver-Lonsdale. And why can't the NDP win a seat in Prince George, where Carole James used to live? I don't get that.
Those are outside of NDP possible pick-ups IMHO.
1. Surrey-Tynehead comprises the high-end Fraser Heights area north of Hwy 1, which is also the fastest growing part of the riding. Fraser Heights votes en-bloc for right-wing parties.
http://bc2009.com/ridings/Surrey-Tynehead/
2. Surrey-Panorama now takes in most of the wealthy, right-wing enclave of South Surrey right up to 24th Ave., which is also the fastest growing part of the riding. Skip northward across the intervening farmland and south of Hwy 10 is also a right-wing enclave. North of there and the eastern half of the riding is also a small "c" conservative area right up to 64th Ave.
http://bc2009.com/ridings/Surrey-Panorama/
3. North Vancouver Lonsdale, while having a large housing rental stock also has a growing number of condominium developments, which further trends the riding to the right albeit this riding is the most likely to fall into NDP hands. David Schreck won the riding for the NDP in 1991 (for the first time ever) with a right-wing vote split by a margin of 2% but lost the riding in 1996 by a margin of 11%.
http://bc2009.com/ridings/North-Vancouver-Lonsdale/
For the NDP to win these ridings, it would either need to achieve more than 50% of the popular vote or have a 1991-type right-wing vote spit.
Carole Taylor will need to define what kind of taxes she does support before I consider her as a potential premier.
And while Carole James opposes the HST, she also refuses to confirm that she'd repeal it either. But at least she understand the inevitably disastrous repercussions of cutting off one of the government's lost lucrative sources of revenue.
My question is thus:
If not the HST, then what?
Of course, that's a losing question for any politician, so I'm not expecting any of our elected officials to answer it.
The BC Liberals (falsely in my opinion) believe they have fall back positions - I don't think politics is as it once was. Remember - Carole Taylor gave the public service 1 billion dollars -- this narrows the number of viable positions she could take vis-a-vis budgeting if she were leader-notwithstanding her position on the HST - which Vander Zalm is way out in front of. If I were a BC Liberal supporter in a position to do something --I would start ringing the panic bell - NOW not in a month or so.
Private Public Opinion Poll (P-POP)
ZEUS - It's OFFICIAL - Carole James (Victoria) vs. Bill Vander Zalm (Delta) for Premier of British Columbia 2013
http:www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_706.html
Zalm goes minimum to heavy on split - if you're a visual person- you can see the image of the leverage of the split in your minds eye. The circumstances weigh heavier at this time because of the participation of the near three quarter million (750,000) Petitioners (British Columbia's Citizens) who signed the Vander Zalm Fight HST and Petition --
I agree - the BC Liberals are in a very bad political situation-= a million dollars in three weeks couldn't save this--
If she did run -- I believe she would be in the hunt for the job. Her problem is there is still a political 'contract' against her with me --
and this 'contract' remains on the books-- for Christy to be 'politically wacked' before she crosses any finish line--unless it is city councillor -- and Christy doesn't need that -- she's having great success -- she's single--why go looking for misery?
'Way it Goes'
If you think the BC Liberals "promised" not to implement the HST you really need to look beyond the headlines and the ill-informed letters page.
If there is a leadership race it will become, whatever the denials, a Red-Blue confrontation. Conservatives will claim it's their turn, and Liberals will claim that no social conservative can win an election, therefore the leadership must remain with them. Falcon, Coleman, or any of the Valley MLAs entering such a race would push this cleavage into the open where no one could overlook it, ... except one man. Gary Mason.
Carole James did indeed out poll both Mike Harcourt and Glen Clark, as has been pointed out, without winning any respect from "urbanists" who don't like her average means, lack of Yuppie status, and unwilllingness to pander to urban fashion plate politics.
WIth the Olympics being followed by service cuts and the HST hike, Gordon M. Campbell is the last Premier from Vancouver for many decades to come. The demand that Carol Taylor be given the job right now is a desperate attempt by city interests to start pumping water before it reaches the main dining salon. That they don't understand that it was too late some time ago is indicative of their fond belief that Lincoln lived a hundred or more years too soon to understand that with the right campaign and the right media backup you can fool some kind of revolving majority forever.
Rod Smelser
She has no shot of being premier. Doesn't have the chariz. And that's important -- if it was about finding "the best administrator," there would be no elections, but a battery of aptitude tests.
Gregor is our best shot. He's got the pizazz, leftish concerns, public profile, and -- this is the key -- he' s been an entrepeneur. Remember, only Nixon could go to China. The NDP must turn to a person who has built up a multimillion dollar private company, who has paid the taxes, made the payroll numbers, and THEN got into the public service. Right wingers don't have to endure that kind of image-massaging, because their audience will vote with their wallets first and according to the pulpit second. We don't have those natural advantages and have to pick the most overall appealing, well-rounded package -- and that's not CJ, never was.
Who are you kidding? Really?
I just realized something. Charlie Smith put Gregor Robertson in the list of NDP contestants instead of among the would-be Campbell successors. I wonder if that's a mistake of some kind of test?
Rod Smelser
The public want change, not 1970's 'goody two-shoes' smarmy schoolmarm type for Premier; they want a new product.
Too many people will just ignore the next election as the Liberals will again offer Campbell or a corporatist retread and the NDP will offer Carole James or some NDP zomboid, who spouts gibberish that pretends to be substance.
Guy Genter would be a good choice, but I do not think the NDP hierarchy would tolerate such a move and will opt for someone more NDPish, which will again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
What we have in BC today is a choice between Tweedle Dumb and Twaddle Dumbest, no wonder that 50% of the electorate do not vote!
As for Kevin Falcon, he will remain a corrupt politician, which is kind of a redundant statement.
What we have in BC today is a choice between Tweedle Dumb and Twaddle Dumbest, no wonder that 50% of the electorate do not vote!
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Perhaps that's consistent with a political landscape in which various transit bloggers, working on behalf of various equipment suppliers, can ply their trade.
Rod Smelser
My hunch would be you will not see the next premier of British Columbia from the city of Vancouver.
Would Carole Taylor consider a home in Surrey, BC?
By the way, I lived and worked in BC during the 90's, and, being in business, I did not see BC destroyed, anymore than I see it destroyed under the Liberals, although they are intentionally taking a real stab at doing just that.