Vancouver-Point Grey by-election offers a lesson in spin by B.C. Liberals and NDP
Last night, I spent time at David Eby's election headquarters watching results come in from the Vancouver-Point Grey by-election.
Every few minutes, a woman would go to the big board by the window and post some numbers.
When I arrived, Christy Clark, the B.C. Liberal candidate, had a 20-vote lead, with 85 of 130 polling stations counted. (I was mystified because Elections B.C. was reporting just after 8 p.m. that there were 134 "election boxes".)
At 8:53 p.m., the numbers changed. Clark now had 3,925 votes, compared to 3,888 for Eby, with results in from 110 of 130 polling stations. You could feel a letdown in the room. Nobody seemed to know if those numbers included the advance poll.
Seven minutes later, there was elation as the newest numbers went up: 4,588 for Eby and 4,433 for Clark with 110 of 130 polling stations reporting. As the TV cameras captured the action, the crowd started chanting "NDP. NDP. NDP."
The room was virtually completely full of Caucasian faces with the exception of Burnaby-Edmonds NDP MLA Raj Chouhan and a woman of South Asian descent who was standing near him. I was shocked to see so little diversity at a political event of this magnitude in Vancouver. It was also a sign that the NDP has work to do in this area, notwithstanding leader Adrian Dix's efforts to attract new Canadians.
Chouhan remained glued in his position, conveniently in front of the camera operators' tripods. Sure enough on the late-night newscasts, Chouhan's face was among those most prominent in the crowd shots.
Call me a cynic, but it struck me as a little staged.
A former NDP candidate in Vancouver-Point Grey, Mel Lehan, remarked that Clark probably couldn't come back from a 150-vote deficit with so few polling stations uncounted.
However, he was proven wrong a few minutes later. At 9:08 p.m., new numbers went up showing Clark with a 20-vote lead. With 120 of 130 polling stations reporting, the premier had 5,217 votes, compared to 5,197 for Eby.
Sixteen minutes later, I was gobsmacked by the next numbers that went up on the board. With 128 of 130 polling stations reporting, Eby and Clark were in a dead heat, according to the big board near the window.
They both had 5,421 votes, prompting me to exclaim, "Holy shit!" to those around me.
Those numbers stayed up for quite a while. Even as they remained unchanged, there was a sense in the room that something was shifting. Twitter reports from people at the Clark party on West 4th Avenue were saying that she had won.
My colleague Stephen Hui also reported on this site that Clark had won. But still, the numbers weren't being posted at Eby headquarters. I felt a bit manipulated.
I can't help but wonder if the NDP spin doctors held off putting up the final results because they wanted to maintain a high level of energy in the room for the large number of assembled media.
One way to keep the media on the premises was by keeping the candidate under wraps. He was nowhere to be seen as the drama was unfolding.
Eventually, Eby conceded defeat, but the story line was that in losing, the B.C. NDP had actually won by putting the premier on the ropes. This morning, the Elections B.C. website reports that there were actually 167 "election boxes"—and Clark won by 594 votes.
Meanwhile, the B.C. Liberals were doing some serious spinning of their own. Even though the premier was nearly humiliated by a first-time candidate in a wealthy B.C. Liberal constituency, she delivered an extremely rosy twist to her supporters.
Like many politicians, Clark never seems to shut up about the Vancouver Canucks. So we shouldn't be surprised that she brought them up in her victory speech.
The premier said that if Henrik Sedin is holding the Stanley Cup over his head—even after the team wins in game seven in triple overtime—people will be happy.
The problem is that a hockey game is not an election—and her margin of victory was so small that it likely scared the daylights out of some B.C. Liberal MLAs.
Then Clark turned on the charm for her next spin offensive. She said she "broke the curse" of by-election defeats for governments, noting that the ruling party had not won one of these contests in 30 years.
First off, there haven't been many provincial by-elections in the last 30 years. Secondly, she was the first premier to run in one in 30 years. And thirdly, she very nearly lost.
B.C. Liberals might ask: "Why is this a problem? She won."
Here's why it's a problem. The B.C. NDP has been energized by the by-election. As a result, it will attract more volunteers and donations in the future.
The NDP's momentum will persuade some B.C. Liberal donors to hedge their bet and throw some money at the B.C. NDP. There's also a perception among the electorate and the media that Clark is far from invincible, which won't help her.
The collapse of the Green vote in the by-election is also an ominous sign for the B.C. Liberals.
Of course, Clark tried to spin that as well. She claimed that many Green voters might have decided to support the B.C. Liberals because of her party's progressive environmental policies.
If you believe that, you'll probably believe almost anything.
This was not a good night for the premier.
Follow Charlie Smith on Twitter at twitter.com/csmithstraight.
Comments
22 Comments
Pinkie
May 12, 2011 at 8:22am
Well it just stinks like Steveston used to when the fishing fleet came in....I would like to see a recount including advanced polling.
Jimi
May 12, 2011 at 8:40am
Well, I can tell you one thing. I don't beleive you either! I have bounced between the Liberals and NDP for my support over the years depending on the candidate in my riding (Vancouver Point Grey). By elections are where statements to the government are made rather than a sign of the voters preference in leadership. It looks like there was a statement made as the results favored Clark; face it the NDP failed.
Mark Fornataro
May 12, 2011 at 8:47am
If a provincial election is called while UBC is in session, all the UBC students added to the equation may(hopefully) cause Clark to lose the riding next time.
Dave K
May 12, 2011 at 9:17am
A couple of points...
First, the reduced number of Green votes was not all that surprising. The federal Green candidate in Vancouver - Quadra, the federal riding that overlaps with Vancouver - Point Grey, received significantly fewer votes last week than in the previous federal election. The federal NDP was the main recipient of those formally green votes, and that's the same thing that we saw in yesterday's by-election.
Also, it should come as no surprise that the faces at Eby's headquarters were overwhelmingly caucasian. Have you been to Kitsalano or Point Grey lately? With the exception of the UBC campus, this is perhaps the most overwhelmingly white area in the Lower Mainland. The lack of minorities says nothing about the NDP's ethnic support, but rather reflects the population demographic of the riding.
Null Neimand
May 12, 2011 at 10:03am
Will Clark heed the fact that she just got in, and temper her direction at least in her riding noting that of those that voted only a smidgen more voted for her? No she will act as if she got every single vote. It would have been nice to see her try and govern her domain from the hallway.
Bobbylu
May 12, 2011 at 10:06am
Dave K,
You obviously spent little to no time in Point Grey -- this area is very attractive to wealthy Asian people and is anything but overwhelmingly caucasian. (Unless by Vancouver standards overwhelming means 50% representation.)
Peter Dimitrov
May 12, 2011 at 10:21am
Christy Clark's Win = Dysfunctional Democracy
Twenty percent of the citizens voted and CClark got about half
So she does not represent 50% +1 of the citizens in that constituency, and likewise, if Eby was elected neither would he based on the turnout. The truth is that all of the candidates for election are members of political parties, their nomination forms signed by the Leaders of their party, none of the candidates were selected by citizens in the constituency in any kind of candidate selection process. In my mind, no election without (candidate) selection.
It seems to me, some new rules are required, here are some suggestions.
1. Each constituency has a right to have an MLA represent the citizens resident within the constituency provided the MLA is elected by 50% plus one of the total number of citizens eligible to vote. If the 50% +1 number is not achieved, the MLA's seat remains vacant until such time as it is achieved.
Based on this single idea, the right to have an MLA is only perfected when citizens assume sufficient responsibility & participation to bring out the 50% +1 result, if not, they will not have, due to a failure to bear their responsibilities as citizen, an MLA in the Legislature.
This democratic burden shifted from political parties to citizens, where it rightly belongs, must be accompanied with other measures to rebuild democracy, including, imo:
Public funding to built the democratic infrastructure in the Province's constituency to bring about much more citizen participation, including better rights of recall, initiative, policy formation, accountability, candidate selection by constituents and not parties, election of permanent constituency councils (not run by MLAs and political parties) with rights and responsibilities to get the citizen vote out.
Changing the voting system from FPTP to a form of pro-rep that does not enhance the rights of political parties, their leaders & party cadres to construct a list of names from amongst the party membership for the voters to select from. Rather a form of pro-rep that includes a primary, a primary for candidate selection by constituents, and then election to choose one MLA based on pro-rep voting rules that does not include party lists. I believe, please correct me if wrong, that the BC & federal NDP favours Mixed Member Proportional Representation where citizens get to vote on candidate lists proposed by parties. That entrenches party power not citizen democratic rights to select and elect.
Dave K
May 12, 2011 at 10:38am
I have personally lived in this riding for over 10 years and have blood relatives who have lived here on and off for over 80 years. My uncle was the NDP candidate in the last two provincial elections. I have done door-knock campaigning in Point Grey and know first-hand the breakdown of ethnicity throughout this riding. With the exception of some small areas in Point Grey, non-caucasian voters are few and far between. Yes, there are some wealthy Asian immigrants, but they are still a minority, and from my experience with them, they more often than not don't intend to vote. Some of them don't even know that they have the right to do so!
I should also point out that I'm familiar with the breakdown of votes at the various polls throughout the riding, and it is far from uniform. There are areas within Kitsalano that are staunchly NDP, but once you head up the hill into Point Grey, the balance tips really far in favour of the Liberals. As elsewhere, the vote distribution here essentially reflects wealth. If you graphed increasing household income versus increasing Liberal support, you would have an essentially straight line.
lucy onert
May 12, 2011 at 11:27am
Ending second, Eby, Dix and Layton are losers. Despite all their efforts they could not make it. Not even Layton's agreement with May to switch the greens helped enough. Clearly, the people of BC does not want a Stalinist planned economy as advocated by Dix. Dix caries the bagage as the right hand man of Glen Clark.. The fast ferries, the casino fiasco, the BC economy in shambles created by Dix and Glen. Dix face comes accross as a KGB agent ready to take all our money by raising taxes and give it to the union bosses. I say NO to Dix.
RealityCheck
May 12, 2011 at 12:03pm
The fact remains that the NDP threw everything but the kitchen sink at her, and she still won without even running a campaign. Looks like the NDP has swung too far to the left for most moderate voters.
Should have kept Carole James...or at least elected Mike Farnsworth.