What to expect in Bo Horvat’s next contract

While the Vancouver Canucks have handed out plenty of contracts this offseason, there are still a few that need the team’s attention before training camp begins in September 

The arbitration date for Reid Boucher is set for August 1, while the Canucks recently avoided a second arbitration hearing, re-upping forward Michael Chaput to a one-way contact.

In these situations, when a player and team aren’t able to come to an agreement on a contract for a restricted free agent, an independent arbitrator sets what they determine to be fair value on a one-year contract.

The Canucks also have two restricted free agents that aren’t going to arbitration.

After not being taken in the Vegas expansion draft to the relief of many fans who still believe he can be a useful third-line centre, Brendan Gaunce is still due a contract.

Then there’s Bo Horvat.

The Canucks have just under $9 million in salary cap space without Horvat, Gaunce and Boucher signed. And while the team should be able to get the latter two signed for under a million each, Horvat won’t be so cheap.

The team has two options: a short-term bridge deal that would see Horvat locked up for two years or so at what would be a high price, or a longer term deal.

The Canucks would be wise to get Horvat’s name on a long-term contract and all indications are that’s what they want to do. While team president Trevor Linden recently said that he doesn’t think he’ll be handing out a maximum eight-year deal, something around the six-year range is heavily rumoured.

Many outlets have listed comparables to the Canucks leading scorer last year, and it’s worthwhile taking a look under the hood at a few of them.

Tyler Johnson, C, Tampa Bay Lightning

Contract: Seven years/ $5 million

When using comparisons to predict what a player can expect in his next contract, it’s easiest to point out recent contracts, as the salary cap often increases year to year, changing how much the contract is actually worth. 

And while Johnson is the most recent forward to sign a big money contract, the comparisons to Horvat don’t quite fit. For one, Johnson, will be 27 at the start of this coming season. Plus, his most productive seasons are likely behind him. For Johnson, a stable, long-term contract was the priority.

After a great 2014-15 campaign with 72 points in 77 games, Johnson has struggled to stay healthy and hasn’t posted over 50 points in the two seasons since. Leaving some money on the table and taking the longer term was a solid move for the centre, but Horvat won’t be hamstrung by an injury history and declining performance in negotiations.

Higher or Lower Average Annual Value for Horvat? Higher

Jonathan Drouin, LW, Montreal Canadiens

Contract: Six years/ $5.5 million

Another contract that was signed this offseason, Drouin’s is the most oft-cited contract when predicting Horvat’s new deal. This is partially because of the date of the deal, but also because the two players had similar numbers last season, are both 22 and were both high draft picks.

Last year Drouin potted 53 points in 73 games. Horvat’s 52 in 81 games slightly pales in comparison, but it’s worth noting that Horvat plays a more demanding position and was on a much worse team than the 2016-17 Tampa Bay Lightning.

Horvat, of course, plays a different style than Drouin. He is less naturally gifted offensively, but he offers more of an all-around game than the new Canadiens star. Combine that with the fact that the Canucks seem all-in on Horvat as their next captain, and it’s a good bet that the London, ON native’s agent, Mark Guy, will use Drouin’s deal as a jumping off point.

Higher or Lower AAV for Horvat? Higher

Nathan MacKinnon, C/RW, Colorado Avalanche

Contract: Seven years/ $6.3 million

This one might be wishful thinking for Horvat and his agent. While MacKinnon did only register one more point than Horvat this year, the Colorado Avalanche were absolutely putrid last year. After MacKinnon in points on the team was Matt Duchene at 41, as the Avalanche marched towards one of the worst seasons in the modern era. 

MacKinnon is still a star though, and his pedigree as a number one overall draft pick — combined with a sensational rookie season that saw him capture the Calder Trophy — vaults him over Horvat in value.

Higher or Lower AAV for Horvat? Lower

Jonathan Huberdeau, LW/C, Florida Panthers

Contract: Six years/ $5.9 million 

Like everyone except Johnson on this list, Huberdeau comes with a prominent draft pedigree, having been drafted third overall in 2011.

Prior to signing his current contract, Huberdeau put together two solid statistical seasons in a Panthers jersey, registering 54 points in 79 games in 2014-15 and then following up with 59 points in 76 contests.

It was evident he’d get paid after two strong seasons and an undisputable reputation as a blue-chip prospect prior.

Horvat is a year younger than Huberdeau was when he signed the contract, and as a result he only has the one year over 50 points. Like MacKinnon, Huberdeau also won the Calder trophy in his rookie year, albeit against a decidely lackluster rookie crop (Nail Yakupov and Cory Conacher finished fifth and sixth in voting that year, and both are now fringe NHLers). 

Huberdeau is a suitable comparison and this is a tough call, but….

Higher or Lower AAV for Horvat? Slightly Higher

Call it a hunch, but we see #53 getting six years at a clean $36 million.

What say you? Higher or lower?