Why Estelle Lo matters in the Vancouver civic election

Tonight, I checked the City of Vancouver Web site and saw that Estelle Lo is still listed as the city's general manager of corporate services, director of finance, and chief financial officer.

She is identified as having overall responsibility for a bunch of areas, including "real estate and property management".

However, this could be out of date because a separate organizational chart includes a new department of business planning and services, which is headed by Ken Bayne.

Bayne previously reported to Lo. However, when he was put in charge of his own department, Esther Lee was  recommended for the position of  deputy director of finance in a report that Lo wrote on July 28, and which was approved by council on September 16.

But three weeks  later, city manager Judy Rogers wrote a report to council  recommending that Bayne be reinstalled as deputy director of finance. He retained his position as general manager of business planning and services. Council approved this at the October 14 meeting.

Did Lo quit the day that council voted in favour of Bayne's reinstatement as her deputy?

Lo wasn't at the in-camera meeting held on the same day  at which city council approved a $100-million loan guarantee. This was  to ensure that the Olympic Village will be completed in time for the International Olympic Committee to take control of the  site  by next November.

Did Bayne, the newly reminted deputy director of finance, make the staff presentation at the in-camera meeting? If he wasn't back in the number two spot in the finance hierarchy, he couldn't have been able to make the presentation with the imprimateur of "deputy director of finance" on his title, giving the presentation more legitimacy in the eyes of council.

Meanwhile, Vision Vancouver councillor Tim Stevenson has alleged  Lo either quit or has been fired--a claim rejected by NPA mayor Sam Sullivan.

Why is this significant from a political perspective?

One reason is that Lo is the highest ranking Chinese-speaking bureaucrat at City Hall, which is dominated by a  mostly Caucasian senior civil service. She is the only Cantonese-speaking bureaucrat among the managers who head the 14 departments, including police and fire and rescue services.

The only other top management official of Chinese descent is police Chief Jim Chu, who was born in Shanghai and who  has admitted publicly that Mayor Sam Sullivan speaks better Cantonese than he does.

In this election, the NPA already faces new challenges attracting votes in the city's large  Cantonese-speaking population.

The party won't have Sullivan  at the top of the ticket. And  Sullivan  is very popular within the first-generation Cantonese-speaking subset of the Chinese Canadian community, in part  because he has learned to speak the language.

Sullivan has also enjoyed the support of heavyweights in the Cantonese-speaking local community, such as Tung Chan and Maggie Ip. They probably weren't pleased by Peter Ladner's victory in the NPA mayoral-nomination race last June.

If Lo is fired or if she has already quit, this will be a major story in Sing Tao, Ming Pao, and on the  Fairchild broadcasting outlets--three media outlets that cater to the city's large Cantonese-speaking population.

It will also be a big story on Channel M, particulary on  a popular talk show hosted by Guo Ding.

In past elections, the NPA has relied upon the Chinese-speaking community to win and take control of the city.

SFU public-policy professor Kennedy Stewart predicted earlier this year that there will be at least 18,000 Chinese-speaking voters in the 2008 Vancouver civic election on Saturday (November 15).

According to exit polling that Stewart and SFU graduate students  conducted in 2005, Sullivan took 70 percent of the votes of Chinese-speaking residents in the last mayoral contest. That was more than enough to give him a narrow victory over Vision Vancouver candidate Jim Green.

In the 2006 census, 29 percent of Vancouver residents identified themselves as being of Chinese descent. Of course, many are second-, third-, and fourth-generation Canadians of Chinese ancestry.

The 2006 census also reported that there were 331,795 residents in metropolitan Vancouver whose mother tongue was Chinese. This could include Cantonese, Hakka, Taiwanese, Chaochow (Teochow), Fukien, Shanghainese, and other Chinese languages not specified on the forms.

But where will those voters go this year in Vancouver?

Vision Vancouver has nominated three council candidates of Chinese descent--Raymond Louie, Kerry Jang, and George Chow. All three are highly regarded among many  voters who trace their roots back to Hong Kong and southern China.

The NPA's sole councillor of Chinese descent  over the past three years was the rather underwhelming B.C. Lee, whose roots are in Taiwan.

An NPA  mainstay in the Cantonese-speaking community was  former school trustee and councillor  Don Lee, but he died earlier this year. Lee was a Sullivan supporter.

Lo also traces her roots back to the same part of the world.

The NPA could face unexpected trouble if its  dealings with a  couple of Iranian real-estate developers at the helm of Millennium and their financiers on Wall Street  trigger  Lo's departure.

That's because this will be big news in the local Chinese-language media, which cares about all things real estate.

Chinese-speaking developers could rightly ask why one particular development company gets loan guarantees from taxpayers whereas nobody else enjoys this benefit--just at a time when  the market is imploding.

Now that's a story with legs in the Chinese-language media--especially if Chinese-speaking developers start  grumbling publicly that  the NPA has forsaken the community.

This is the NPA's worst nightmare in the week of the election. Another problem? NPA council candidate Kanman Wong does not have Don Lee's stature in Chinatown.

And the NPA's other council candidate of Chinese descent, former senior banker David Lee, doesn't have nearly the same populist appeal in the community as Vision Vancouver's Chow.

Chow won nearly 18,000 votes in 2002 as an independent candidate for council, even though he had never sought office before.

Ladner and the NPA can still win this election.

But they better hope that Estelle Lo doesn't pull the plug on her job in a very public way this week, because that's one headline Ladner doesn't want to see in Ming Pao or Sing Tao  before Chinese-speaking voters go to the polls on Saturday.

 

Comments

12 Comments

David Wong

Nov 12, 2008 at 10:15pm

Like I said before... Charlie, you amaze me with your knowledge of this community. And our friend Andy Y and I often wonder how a gweilo like you has figured it out.

I agree with most of what you've written above... and almost all of the Chinese media I've recently been in touch with share the same sentiments - that only Mayor Sullivan made a real effort to cultivate a relationship in the Chinese Canadian community.

You earlier wrote that you would eat your words on the steps of City Hall should Peter Ladner succeed in landing the Mayor's job. That'd be fun to see.

The bamboo network indicate that Mr Ladner is currently enjoying the lead ...due to the recent misjudgements by Mr Robertson - his apparent Skytrain fare oversight and his making a meal of undermining confidential City business dealings - meaning lack of integrity and playing unfair ...two big slaps in the minds of this community.

I was at a few community functions this past week... and everyone was conversing about Robertson's lack of integrity ... speaking in Chinese. Then when the Vision Vancouver folks wandered over. Everyone clammed up and just smiled for the cameras.

David

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sleepswithangels

Nov 13, 2008 at 2:21pm

Gee whiz David... I wonder what the "bamboo network" has to say about Estelle being in HK and about the fact she has quit. There is only one party to blame for that and it doesn't start with a V (for victory).

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David Wong

Nov 13, 2008 at 6:22pm

V for Vendetta.

Good point you raise sleepswithangels, everyone is quick to point the finger at the various candidates...but no one has openly wondered about Estelle. It is a bit strange that there hasn't been a peep from her, at least an official peep from the stoneheads at City Hall.

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sleepswithangels

Nov 14, 2008 at 1:43am

That's a really low (npi) blow David, and now we have a "you smelled it..you dealt it" scenario wafting from BC Lee. Or is it a "he says..she says". According to the Sun (re: the exact time the missing document was discovered) he says: "Lee was adamant that the afternoon chat Smith referred to never happened." and she ( Lee's assistant Cecelia Smith) says "Smith said Lee had told her he had found the document much earlier."...this happened hours before the time BC Lee told the authorities it was found but the later time puts Raymond Louie in the frame. If that flimsy bit of fiction holds for another few hours it might salvage the NPA's campaign, but I think this little package of rotting fish is like your stale polling numbers for Ladner..you should have composted that info a couple of weeks ago.

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David Wong

Nov 17, 2008 at 1:13pm

Interesting exit poll in today's (Nov 17) Vancouver Sun. It shows over 2/3rds of Chinese Cdns choosing Peter Ladner over Gregor Robertson. But the same results could not be translated into their respective parties.

I firmly believe that if the NPA had captured the Chinese language audience ... they may have been able pull off what Sam Sullivan had done in the last election.

Look at the numbers on the exit poll. If another 1/6th (ie half of the Chinese numbers supporting Gregor) had moved over to Ladner, and if an equal amount of additional Chinese voters got off their duffs and had voted in favour of Peter, Peter could have captured the Mayor's seat.

Do the math... & remember to subtract the numbers from Gregor's count to figure out the outcome.

But to translate this support over into his Councillors would have been much more difficult. Gregor had Raymond and George... who are highly regarded in the community. So if the NPA had high profile Chinese candidates, especially those knew how to tap into the Chinese speaking media ... the election results may have been different.

The Chinese media relayed a common theme when I was bugging them - and that beef was the lack of a "relationship" with the Chinese candidates that had ran under the NPA.

David

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sleepswithangels

Nov 17, 2008 at 6:35pm

David...while I can admire your passion for the political process and your optimism, given the thrashing your chosen party has just taken, you are not cognizant of the fact that the NPA, like all right wing entities primarily attract elitist opportunists which is why the best Asian candidates gravitate towards parties who are centrist or center left. The myth that Conservative parties are fiscally conservative or are in any way good for the vast majority of citizens is a myth that is slowly but
surely being exploded and exposed for just another in a long line of Big Lies foisted upon us by media conglomerates that are little more than propaganda organs for select corporate interests.
Oh yeah...and exit polls are notoriously unreliable within the Asian community as Asian voters are quite rightly put off at having their privacy invaded by intrusive questioners. Having said that I would love to be able to guage the effect the news of Estelle's departure from city hall (and trip to HK) had on "the Asian vote". In my estimation there are still far too many gullible people who are taken in by the absurdly named Non Partisan Association. They should change it to the Pretending to be Something we're Not Party or PSNP or Petty, Shallow and Nasty Party.

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David Wong

Nov 17, 2008 at 9:43pm

Thanks for your comments 'sleepswithangels'.

Actually, I'm a Vision Vancouver card carrying member. Unlike some other VV members, I actually paid for my membership to join VV, and paid for other members of my family to join. So I'm not a NPA cheerleader.

In fact, I threw a fairly successful fundraiser at my home for Vision, where a couple of Vision Councilors, Vision directors and Senator Larry Campbell attended and graced our place. We had a hoot, and even had a legendary music band attend.

I don't know if this counts for anything, but Vision had even asked me to run for them ( by a couple of their councilors, a number of times) after I had already declared my support for Peter. I turned them down, like I turn down other similar requests.

I don't just throw my support to any old clown. Those that know me, know that I am highly opinionated and am an obnoxious prick, but I support good leaders. I diss every political stripe... especially the folks of my ethnicity if they exhibit narcissistic antics.

I supported Peter Ladner and few other NPA folks - people I got to know, because I saw a real appreciation of their passion, knowledge and support of our city.

I've the same respect for George Chow, Raymond Louie, and a number of wonderful new candidates I met during this tough civic campaign, people like, Sarah Blyth, Sharon Urton, and others.

I supported Peter Ladner because he has high integrity and did not take the low road like so many other politicians. I did not support him because he was NPA.

I feel that partisan politics pits good people against each other... and that sucks.

I'm also glad that you also speak out and share your thoughts. It's important. Because we need vigilance from ordinary Vancouverites with passion.

David

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sleepswithangels

Nov 19, 2008 at 2:58pm

You really surprise me David...I'm a self paid for member of VV as well though on election night I hung at COPE HQ as you won't find a less pretentious crowd anywhere. Given your political insight I'm quite surprised you got taken in by a man who, in private, is quite prickly and petulant. I find this is especially typical of those right wingers who dress in centrist drag in order to get elected then proceed to bend their voters over the nearest log and make sneering references to their pretty mouths. Nasty people end up doing nasty things but if they happen to be smart with political ambition, they work very hard to project an image they think will appeal to fence sitting voters. I could paraphrase some biblical references here but that would creep me out so I'll close by saying Peter Ladner should see if John Hof has something for him to do out Langley way....maybe building crosses or polishing jack boots.

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David Wong

Nov 20, 2008 at 12:37pm

Thanks 'sleepwithangels'. Maybe my knowledge of Peter Ladner is not as in depth as yours, but I got to know him over many long years... and saw a side of him that showed integrity and compassion.

I had also supported Sam Sullivan for his initial and successful bid for the Mayor's job. I even helped Sam learn a few early words of Cantonese... considering the fact that I can hardly speak Chinese myself, is a feat in itself.

I would have wanted to support Sam again, and I like Sam, but I couldn't handle the many ass kissers around him... uhhh, some things are best not said openly.

sleepwithangels, I got to admit - I enjoy your wit and humour... and do look forward to your postings here. Keep up the mischief making... it keeps everyone in this city honest.

David

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sleepswithangels

Nov 20, 2008 at 7:47pm

Very high praise indeed coming from you David. I've asked around and your reputation as a first class, self confessed prick proceeds you. If I can become even half the asshole you are, I can die a happy man.
No doubt our paths will cross before long. In the meantime have you wondered what will become of all the ass kissing douchebags who are being evicted from their little rat holes at City Hall? The number one wanker is being considered for something that is far above his talents...I hope the hiring committee does a full criminal background check first.

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