B.C. Liberals appear to be doomed in upcoming provincial election

Comments9

The window is closing on the B.C. Liberals' chance of pulling off a major upset victory in the 2013 provincial election.

A new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll shows that the governing party has not received a boost from the recent throne speech and provincial budget.

If an election were held, the B.C. NDP would capture 47 percent of the vote, compared to just 31 percent for the B.C. Liberals.

B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix has a 43 percent approval rating, compared to 31 percent for Premier Christy Clark.

Female voters prefer the B.C. NDP by a 20-point margin: 47 percent to 27 percent. Among men, the B.C. NDP is up by 12 percent.

The B.C. Greens are at 10 percent, followed closely by the B.C. Conservatives at nine percent.

The B.C. NDP is also ahead in every age category, every household-income group, and in all four regions of the province.

One of the very few bright spots for the B.C. Liberals was a dent in Dix's popularity. Over the past three months, 28 percent of respondents reported that their opinion of the B.C. NDP leader had worsened, whereas only 21 percent said it had improved.

The poll reported that 28 percent also had a worse view of B.C. Conservative Leader John Cummins. Only four percent said their opinion of Cummins had improved.

However, Clark suffered an even worst fall in the eyes of respondents: 45 percent stated that their view of her had gotten worse, whereas only nine percent cited improvement.

The B.C. Liberals appear to be on the verge of obliteration on Vancouver Island, where they trail the B.C. NDP by 31 percent. There are 16-point and 15-point margins in the Interior and the North.

Only in the Lower Mainland, where it's 44 percent to 35 percent, are the B.C. Liberals even mildly competitive.

If these results hold through the election, expect most of the cabinet and the premier to go down to defeat in their constituencies.

Already, the B.C. Liberal vote appears to be hemorrhaging in large numbers to the Greens on Vancouver Island and to the B.C. Conservatives in the Interior and the North.

If this pattern isn't reversed by election day on May 14, the B.C. Liberals will be lucky to hold more than a dozen seats. But because the Greens and B.C. Conservatives don't have a lot of money, they'll probably concentrate their firepower on a few constituencies in the hope of achieving a breakthrough.

This may offer the B.C. Liberals a chance to pick up a few extra seats, based on the strength of the candidate in certain constituencies.

I'll go out on a limb and predict 18 seats for the B.C. Liberals after the May 14 election. Here they are:

1. Andrew Wilkinson (Vancouver-Quilchena)

2. Sam Sullivan (Vancouver–False Creek)

3. Jordan Sturdy (West Vancouver–Sea to Sky)

4. Ralph Sultan (West Vancouver–Capilano)

5. Jane Thornthwaite (North Vancouver–Seymour)

6. Rich Coleman (Fort Langley–Aldergrove)

7. Mary Polak (Langley)

8. Stephanie Cadieux (Surrey-Cloverdale)

9. Gordon Hogg (Surrey–White Rock)

10. Teresa Wat (Richmond Centre)

11. John Yap (Richmond-Steveston)

12. Simon Gibson (Abbotsford-Mission)

13. John Martin (Chilliwack)

14. Mike Bernier (Peace River South)

15. Bill Bennett (Kootenay East)

16. Norm Letnick (Kelowna–Lake Country)

17. Steve Thomson (Kelowna-Mission)

18. Ben Stewart (Westside-Kelowna)

If this prediction turns out to be true, it would mean the defeat of some of the best-known names in government, including Clark, Finance Minister Mike de Jong, Health Minister Margaret McDiarmid, Environment Minister Terry Lake, and Justice Minister Shirley Bond.

Comments (9) Add New Comment
abby house
I would be surprised if Polak wins - she's not that popular. Simon Gibson really. Well it'll be interesting.
29
12
Rating: +17
Rick in Richmond
The Liberals continue to miscalculate. They seem to think the average BC voter has the memory of a turnip.

They never understood how angry we were regarding the HST. They denied they were going to do it. They denied what new taxes it imposed. They denied its impact. And they never listened to the voters.

By the time they woke up, it was too late.

Now, they have the same problem with BC Rail. They denied they were going to sell it. Then they did. Then they lied about the real cost.

The $6 MILLION the Liberals spent to pay the legal fees for convicted criminals continues to grate and insult. Everything about this deal was rotten, unreasonable, and greedy. It remains so.

BC Rail is Marley's Ghost for the Liberals. It is in the room, howling. It will haunt them to their inevitable defeat.
44
17
Rating: +27
Alain

What about the debacle with Alberta's premiere, trying to look tuff? And the position on the pipelines and tar sands?
The ''shifty shifty'' tactics of clark is just not cutting it.
I cannot agree or disagree on their positions because they agree and disagree on anything and everything depending who they are talking to or who they think is listening.

Who could trust a party like that?

My 2 cents.
30
7
Rating: +23
Drew Scott
Sam Sullivan is a mean little man in a wheelchair.
39
7
Rating: +32
Vancouver West
@ Rick in Richmond

Many still remember the 1990's and the dishonest NDP. That is why they got reduced to 2 MLA in 2002. Is selling a money losing railway a really bad thing? BC Rail never made profits. Look at VIA rail, they are not doing so well. HST is not that bad, BC has the lowest HST rate. You are lucky you are not living in Toronto or east coast.
15
48
Rating: -33
Melissa
@Vancouver West, you are very misinformed or you rhave little memory.

Average economic growth under the NDP of the 90's was 3%, BC Liberals was 2%. Under the NDP corporate profits rose by 251%, exports jumped 107%, the Provincial GDP was up by $51 billion (a 63% hike), capital investment rose by 35%.

The BC Liberals received 5 equalization payments from Ottawa over a decade for a total of $2.7 billion, the NDP had 1 of $125 million.

The BC progress board has been cancelled by Christy because a report shows a decline in BC's standing. In the last ten years we have gone from 4th to 5th in economy, 3rd to 4th in personal income & 5th to 7th in jobs. Business productivity grew by 6.3% between 97 and 2000 & by about 3% in the next 10 years. BC now ranks 25th out of 34 OECD jurisdictions when it comes to exports per capita.

We are worse off now than in the 90's & it's the fault of the Liberals. It's time for a change.
15
7
Rating: +8
colleen moore
It is over for the Liberals. And the former BC Rail is making a bundle shipping tar sands and whole logs that is the cause of lost jobs in saw mills. It is to bad BC sold its rail but who could have seen what was coming down the track but industry and government. I shudder to think what the party will sell off next.
16
7
Rating: +9
James Blatchford
The only thing tightening-up in the run-up to the election is the noose around Christy's neck...There is a straight line from the 'Quick Wins' memo to the millions that will be spent for a Bollywood bash....pass the barf bag please.
10
10
Rating: 0
Tom Guinley
Thankyou Gordon Campbell...for opening our eyes to the real Liberals. You are the direct cause of the total defeat and downfall of your party. Hopefully a lesson to ALL political parties....don't friggin lie to us!!!
4
9
Rating: -5
Add new comment
To prevent automated spam submissions leave this field empty.