Seats predicted for Conservatives, Greens in B.C. election

From the 1990s until 2008, UBC’s Election Stock Market successfully predicted the outcomes of provincial and federal elections.

If the now-renamed Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets continues its tradition of being on the money after a hiatus, then the makeup of the legislative assembly after the May 14 election is going to be a lot more interesting.

At present, 45 B.C. Liberal MLAs hold the majority of the 85 seats in the house. The NDP follows with 36 seats, and independents fill four.

As of March 13, share prices predicted the following post-election seat distribution: 56 New Democrats, 23 B.C. Liberals, three B.C. Conservatives, two independents, and one Green.

Although that’s just one seat for the Greens, it would validate leader Jane Sterk’s expectations that 2013 will be the breakthrough year for her provincial party following the election of MP Elizabeth May in 2011.

If accurate, the results will also give B.C. Conservatives a foothold in the legislative assembly on which they could build a new coalition of the right to eventually replace the beleaguered B.C. Liberals.

Investors in the stock market buy and sell shares on three contracts representing the popular vote, seat distribution, and prospect of a majority government.

UBC professor Werner Antweiler runs the market, and according to him, traders have been consistently predicting a B.C. NDP win.

“It’s not very likely as far as the markets tell,” Antweiler told the Straight when asked by phone if the B.C. Liberals could still pull out a victory.

Comments (10) Add New Comment
Ken Lawson
I agree with this and I see a minority government on the rise,Liberals blew it and NDP still has not been forgotten what they did to this province

A conservative voter
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The Truth
I agree with you Ken the BC Liberals did blow it & I will never ever Vote for the NDP after what they did to BC in the 1990's with the fast ferries,& conflict of interest disgraced premiers...... but many here will disagree with me & I expect it as the Straight is pretty much a fan site for NDP lovers who don't remember the 90's & just yesterday it came out that the NDP used tax payer funds from 2007 to 2011 for advertisements so ya see they're no different than the BC Liberals ......... Go & blindly vote NDP......Baah BBaah like sheep, Sad thing is there's no party in BC worthy of a Vote..... Be careful what you wish for on election day.
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BC Mike
The BC Conservatives will have at least 3 seats in the Valley alone! The liberals will not have 1 seat in the Fraser Valley.
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PJ
Ken: Isee that there is still a lot of misguided voters out there by the looks of your statement.I belive they need to look at what each party actually did for BC,and not at what the other party said they will do,or history will repeat itself.
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BC Scott
Vernon-Monashee, the home of Fostergate, is likely BC Conservative too.
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Captain Mopar
I would tend to agree with BC Scott on his analysis. It would seem the BC Conservatives MAY win in Vernon-Monashee and the Shuswap, and probably will win in the Peace. That would probably be the extent of their foothold. I 'd say that the Green party MAY win a seat on Vancouver Island and the Liberals? I doubt they will get more than nine seats. The Independents are polling well however and I expect them to win their seats. I also expect the NDP to win all of the remaining seats
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e.a.f.
What the NDP did to the province? Check your facts. The NDP left the province in fairly decent shape.
You want to go on about fast ferries? How about el gordo's German Ferries. Not only were they not built in B.C. they are not fuel efficient, have their own problems which the MSM won't print about, are costing us 10% interest. What conflict of interest? Do you mean the "selling" of B.C. Rail to some guy el gordo knew; the "investigation" of the deaths at Burnaby General hospital; the awarding of the "dumb" meter contract to a lieberal "insider"; the "renovations" of Eric Foster's office in Vernon; the use of government resources for lieberal party politics, etc.

Oh and the best one of all, the lieberals have left this province in so much debt, not all the previous governments, combined, added that much debt. So lets try this again. The lieberals have made a mess of this province with one scandal after another. How about all the money over spent on a new roof for B.C. place? Now how many hundred million did that go over budget? How much did the addition to the convention centre go over budget? A few hundred million you say, only in B.C. with the lieberal at the helm.
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Stan Mortensen
"How about all the money over spent on a new roof for B.C. place? Now how many hundred million did that go over budget?"
I am still trying to get my head around how we could spend half a billion dollars on it and only managed to get a one year warranty.
Sure would like to see the General Contractors' P & L and cost analysis on this one.
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Johnny Longform
It is too bad the Liberal Party has brought themselves to this low demise and will soon pay the piper. To find out where they when't wrong we should have a inquirer into and starting with all contracts for the past Olympic Games, CNN Rail, New PortMan Bridge,Delta 2 billion truck Hwy. Smart Meters, Pst, and of course make public all pensions of top public people involed in these ventures. After the election the next party to win will have to deal with a bankrupt province somewhere around 56 Billion in hidden debt that is soon about to surface. You think Greece is bad lookout it's coming to a province near you soon.
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Patrick Doyle
I get so upset when I read statements like "what the NDP did to this province". What I see when I read is someone who did not do ant research what so ever before making this untrue statement. The NDP left the BC Liberals 1.6 million dollar surplus of money which disappeared rather suspiciously. The NDP left this province in really good shape compared to what it is today...
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