Gwynne Dyer: Benjamin Netanyahu wins reelection by destroying the myth of the “two-state solution”

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      Midway through the election campaign Israel’s leading satirical TV show, Eretz Nehederet, came up with a new take on the man who has dominated the country’s politics for the past 20 years. Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, it suggested, was cursed as a child to be Israel’s prime minister for eternity. His only chance to break the spell was to become its worst-ever leader.

      Well, if that was his strategy, he has failed again. Despite having run a government that delivered too few jobs, stagnant wages, a rapidly rising cost of living, and a full-blown housing crisis—it now costs the average Israeli 148 months’ salary to buy a home, compared to 66 months for the average American—Israelis voted him back into power in Tuesday’s election.

      Only a week ago, he was running behind in the polls, but a massive last-minute scare campaign turned it around. On polling day, Netanyahu even put a video clip on his Facebook page in which he warned that “the rule of the right is in danger. The (Israeli) Arabs are moving in droves to the polling stations. Left-wing organisations are bringing them there in buses.” And who was paying for those buses? “American money,” explained Bibi’s campaign team.

      Israel’s voting system of strict proportional representation has never given a single party a majority of the Knesset’s 120 seats in any election in the state’s 67-year history. Netanyahu’s Likud Party won 30 seats, while its nearest rival, the centre-left Zionist Union, got only 24. But that gives Likud the first chance to form a coalition with the required 61 seats, and there are enough smaller right-wing parties to make up the numbers.

      Bibi is back for up to five more years, which would make him the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history. But turning the tide had a price, and Israel has not yet begun to pay it.

      Netanyahu won mainly by cannibalising the vote of the parties to Likud’s right, but that strategy required him to say some things out loud that he had previously conveyed to his hard-right admirers only by nods and winks. The most dramatic shift came just one day before the election, when he finally said plainly that he would never allow the creation of a Palestinian state.

      “I think that anyone who moves to establish a Palestinian state and evacuate [Israeli-occupied Palestinian] territory gives territory away to radical Islamist attacks against Israel,” he said. Does that mean that a Palestinian state would not be permitted if he were re-elected, asked the interviewer. “Indeed,” Netanyahu replied.

      This will come as a vast surprise to practically nobody. Netanyahu’s entire political career has been dedicated to sabotaging the 1993 Oslo Accords (which envisaged Israeli and Palestinian states living side-by-side in peace) and planting so many Jewish settlers on the Israeli-occupied territories that a separate Palestinian state becomes physically impossible.

      He largely destroyed the Oslo agreement in his first term as prime minister in 1996-99 (the creation of a Palestinian state was scheduled for 1998). Almost 10 percent of Israel’s Jews now live in the occupied Palestinian territories (east Jerusalem and the West Bank) that would make up a Palestinian state. But to keep his American allies and his European supporters happy, he never actually said he would not allow an independent Palestine.

      Netanyahu finally spoke the truth on Monday because that’s what the settlers and their supporters wanted to hear, and he needed those votes in order to survive politically. But it destroyed the myth, useful to the United States and the European Union, that there is some surviving “peace process” that must be protected by keeping the Israelis happy. The “peace process” is dead, dead, dead. Has been for years. There is no “two-state solution” on the table.

      This makes it a lot harder for the U.S. to veto resolutions critical of Israel at the United Nations, as it has done 51 times since 1972. Without the cover of peace talks, these vetoes become votes for perpetual Israeli rule over the Palestinian people. And it will accelerate the broader erosion of the old pro-Israel reflexes of people in Europe and the US who needed the reassurance that some day, somehow, there would be a just peace settlement.

      Netanyahu made matters considerably worse during the campaign by openly showing his contempt for President Barack Obama. His panic-mongering speech to the U.S. Congress, painting Obama’s quest for a nuclear deal with Iran as a naive surrender to Iran’s alleged desire for nuclear weapons, was an unprecedented foreign intervention in the U.S. political process. It will not be forgiven or forgotten by Obama.

      His election promise to speed up Jewish settlement in the Palestinian territories (which is illegal under international law) was another nail in the coffin of peace negotiations. Still, it did help to get Netanyahu re-elected, and for him that’s all that counts.

      He still truly believes that only he understands the real and existential dangers facing Israel, and has the will to do something about them. Except that all he ever really does is kick those dangers down the road a bit. Unable to believe that a peaceful settlement is possible or even desirable, he condemns his country to perpetual conflict and growing isolation.

      Comments

      10 Comments

      I know, right?

      Mar 18, 2015 at 1:24pm

      "he condemns his country to perpetual conflict and growing isolation"

      The lack of vision is stunning. All sides.

      And why so worried about nuclear war? The offending producer would immediately be at war with the rest of the world.

      Biologicals are far more compelling.

      Surprise Surprise

      Mar 18, 2015 at 4:27pm

      Once again the people vote against their own self interest. Just like here....

      Cassius

      Mar 18, 2015 at 5:19pm

      Isolated? Not really. Soon the likes of Livni and Herzog will fan out to reassure the Diaspora that all is well and that once Netanyahu passes, peace efforts will resume. They lie and they know it but if they said two and two make five, the Diaspora Jews would hand them a prize for mathematics. Their soothing sounds will resound well in the Democratic party where the Jewish vote and Jewish money count. Watch Hilary Clinton start cozying up to Bibbi. As for the Republicans, they're ecstatic. All they have to do is wait until Obama leaves the Oval Office. And as for the Euro countries, boycotts there may sting, but Israel sells weapons systems to China and India and the Jewish state has strong ties in Silicon Valley. So it's not isolated by a long shot.

      Colin Ross

      Mar 18, 2015 at 5:19pm

      Next - apartheid in enlarged Israel

      greg g

      Mar 18, 2015 at 10:01pm

      Well, I've always contended he never had any intention of allowing a Palestinian state, but with him finally admitting it, he has admitted that Israel is indeed the Apartheid state it has been accused of who have maintained a brutal and illegal military occupation against a people, now to continue in perpetuity, a people they want to rule, but to give no civil rights to, no vote, no security of property ownership, no protection against imprisonment without trial, etc.

      He has absolutely doomed Israel by admitting what anyone with a brain should have known already, and within 20 years Israek will not have a friend left in this entire world. He has also ironically all but guaranteed that Iran *will* get nuclear weapons now as well. He has destroyed his country, and so have the people that voted for this megalomanic race-baiter. He really should think of running for the US Republican Presidential primary as well.

      Hasan Rahimov

      Mar 19, 2015 at 2:10pm

      That last comment (from @Surprise Surprise) is spot on, the Congressional Republicans and Likud (including Bibi) are nothing but errand boys for the *real* King of Israel, Sheldon Adelson.

      While it's a problem in just about every country, the people of the USA and Israel especially would be well-served by getting big money out of campaigns, and I mean real campaign-finance reform, where every party that passes a certain benchmark of support gets exactly the same amount of publicly-financed funds for exhibiting their platforms.

      McRocket

      Mar 19, 2015 at 3:26pm

      Great article, imo.

      @Hasan Rahimov

      Mar 20, 2015 at 10:06am

      "publicly-financed funds for exhibiting their platforms."

      Didn't Harper fix the Federal publicly-financed elections? As for the US - the 2012 presidential campaign was the first $2 billion election; campaign 2016 is expected to hit the $5 billion mark without breaking a sweat:

      http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175970/tomgram%3A_engelhardt%2C_is_a_new...

      Hasan Rahimov

      Mar 22, 2015 at 7:34pm

      Passing laws is kind of pointless when you refuse to follow said laws, e.g. in-and-out scheme, companies making maximum donations to the CPC in their employees' names to get around contribution limits (and the employees usually are paid off as well as getting the tax break)...this last one is widespread, I have first-hand knowledge of at least a dozen businesses in Saskatoon alone that did this during the last election to the advantage of the CPC, Del Mastro's cousin isn't the one who invented this scheme, like I said, it is very widely spread. Harper apparently makes the laws for only the other political parties to have to follow.