Gwynne Dyer: What's Vladimir Putin's next move in Ukraine?

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      Crimea is going to be part of Russia, and there is nothing anybody else can do about it. The petty sanctions that the United States and the European Union are currently imposing have been discounted in advance by Moscow, and even much more serious sanctions would not move it to reconsider its actions. But Vladimir Putin still has to decide what he does next.

      One option, of course, is to do nothing more. He has his little local triumph in Crimea, which is of considerable emotional value to most Russians, and he has erased the loss of face he suffered when he mishandled the crisis in Kyiv so badly. If he just stops now, those sanctions will be quietly removed in a year or two, and it will be business as usual between Moscow and the West.

      If it’s that easy to get past the present difficulties in Moscow’s relations with the U.S. and the EU, why would Putin consider doing anything else? Because he may genuinely believe that he is the victim of a Western political offensive in Eastern Europe.

      Paranoids sometimes have real enemies. NATO’s behaviour since the collapse of the Soviet Union, viewed from Moscow, has been treacherous and aggressive, and it doesn’t require a huge leap of the imagination to see the European Union’s recent policy in Ukraine as a continuation of that policy.

      After non-violent revolutions swept the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe from power in 1989, the Soviet president, Mikhail Gorbachev, made a historic deal with U.S. president George H.W. Bush. It was unquestionably the most important diplomatic agreement of the late 20th century.

      Gorbachev agreed to bring all the Soviet garrisons home from the former satellites, and even to allow the reunification of Germany—a very difficult concession when the generation of Russians that had suffered so greatly at Germany’s hands was still alive.

      In return, the elder President Bush promised that the countries that had previously served the Soviet Union as a buffer zone between it and Germany—Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria – would not be swept up into an expanding NATO. They would be free, but NATO’s tanks and aircraft would not move a 1,000 kilometres to Moscow.

      It was a wise deal between two men who understood the burden of history, but they were both gone from power by the end of 1992—and Gorbachev had neglected to get the promise written into a binding treaty. So it was broken, and all those countries were in NATO by 2004—together with three other countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, that had actually been part of the Soviet Union itself.

      NATO’s eastern frontier is now only 120 kilometres from Russia’s second city, St. Petersburg. The Russians were burned again when NATO encouraged the secession of Kosovo from Serbia (a handy precedent for Crimea’s secession from Ukraine), and once more when NATO got Moscow’s agreement to an emergency military intervention in Libya to stop a massacre, and expanded it into a campaign to overthrow the ruler, Moammar Gadhafi.

      To Russian eyes, what has been happening in Ukraine is more of the same. If Putin believes that, then he thinks he is already in a new Cold War, and he might as well go ahead and improve his position for the coming struggle as much as possible. Specifically, he should grab as much of Ukraine as he can, because otherwise the western part will be turned into a NATO base to be used against him.

      Crimea is irrelevant in this context: the Russian naval bases there are nostalgic relics from another era, of no real strategic value in the 21st century. What Putin does need, if another Cold War is coming, is control of the parts of Ukraine where Russian speakers are a majority or nearly so: not just the east, but also the Black Sea coast. But he shouldn’t occupy western Ukraine, because he would face a prolonged guerilla war if he did.

      This is all extremely paranoid thinking, and perhaps it never passes through Putin’s mind at all. But if it does, then he knows that he has just over two months to make up his mind.

      If Putin allows Ukraine to hold the scheduled national election on May 25, then even the preposterous pretext he has been using for the past month to justify his meddling—that he is intervening to protect Russian-speakers from a “fascist junta” in Kiev—will vanish. So we should know fairly soon which way he is going to jump.

      My money says that Putin will stop with Crimea, because he’s not that paranoid, and because he understands how weak Russia is economically and how quickly it would lose a new Cold War. He has already saved his face; why run further risks? But I have been wrong in the past, once or twice.

      Comments

      26 Comments

      What

      Mar 19, 2014 at 6:01pm

      No real strategic value in Russia's only warm naval base which has seen heavy use since 2008 to trade with Iran/Syria and Libya, and for the Georgian war? Have you lost it Gwynne? There's no such thing as a strategically worthless port that close to the middle east

      Grant Kolman

      Mar 19, 2014 at 6:12pm

      Great column as always. Russia's a great nation that's been through 100 years of hell. And the west just keeps goading it and goading it, and the Ukrainians of all people foolishly decided to join in the fun. All bets are off now, Crimea's gone and sorry I think you had that coming. And while I agree that Putin is unlikely to take it up and along the Dnieper, I really wouldn't see it as a surprising or even a terrible thing. The question's been forced and if NATO and their punky new friends on Russia's borders want to keep pushing it, expect Russia to push back in its old school ways. Am I saving that Ukraine would be well served by getting off its high horse, stop actively giving Russia the finger and generally behaving as a weaker but intimately connected neighbour of a giant... and that the EU/US should back off too? Yep, as that's what you call a pragmatic approach.

      Hegemony

      Mar 19, 2014 at 7:19pm

      Does it matter? This is about hegemony of corporate control of financial institutions over the entire world, particularly the Bank of International Settlements and those who control it, and Putin is not exempt. The main exemptions, Libya, Iran and North Korea are down to two, and not for long.

      The Frightened Dyer

      Mar 19, 2014 at 7:24pm

      After the revelations that Bin Laden wanted to correspond with Dyer and other western journalist who didn't buy the malarkey that Western governments are spooning, he has been frightened into subservience. I have noticed a definite trend in his writing over the last few years from serious analysis to elements of the mindless pap that you see from provacteurs and their pseudo-analysis masquerading as balanced opinion. Always a nod to something useful with a conclusion so off-base that it is painful to read.

      Michele Baillie

      Mar 19, 2014 at 8:37pm

      Mis- handled Kiev crisis so badly? Um Gwynne....Russia is Ukraine's next-door-neighbor. What would you have them do? Enact the US "style" of dealing with it, which we all are aware of?

      Russia had treaties with I remind you; the LAWFUL, ELECTED government of UKRAINE for use and access to Sevastopol.

      The cautious, careful response of Russia in dealing with what truly HAS happened in Ukraine was a model of Statesmanship and respect both for Crimea and her people, as well as respecting International Law.

      Shot-O-Vodka

      Mar 19, 2014 at 9:09pm

      I don't know what Vladimir Putin's next move is going to be.

      There Gwyne, I just told everyone the same thing you did. And I only had to use 12 words.

      Canadian Xpat

      Mar 19, 2014 at 10:12pm

      @What

      The bases have tactical value but not strategic.

      Their respective accesses to Syria and Libya let alone other parts of the world depend on Turkey's consent. In a crisis involving Nato, the black sea would be closed by Turkey's control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles straights. Turkey has the second largest army in Nato and could easily deny the Russians access South.

      doconnor

      Mar 20, 2014 at 6:27am

      "as well as respecting International Law." The first rule of international law it no military invasions of other countries, especially in order to annex them.

      I Chandler

      Mar 20, 2014 at 8:44am

      And what's NATO's next move?

      "Because Putin may genuinely believe that he is the victim of a Western political offensive in Eastern Europe."

      If the New York Times ( &Merkel? ) says he's crazy, that's good enough for me:
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWkfpGCAAuw&list=UUEHsSWvrGVSIA63OV3J6vhA

      Western media may genuinely believe that the Ukraine is a victim of Russian political offensives in Eastern Ukraine... or maybe THEY’RE still lying, and they’ll go on lying:

      "And so there is some kind of operation going on here...they have demonstrations in 11 different cities almost at the same time."

      Billionaires don't make good politicians:
      "But I think that the central government in Kiev does have a legitimacy problem. They haven't won all the hearts and minds of the people, and so, they have appointed, for instance, these wealthy oligarchs, billionaire businessmen... ...I’m not going to go out and fight for this Billionaire Ukrainian governor either. Every single leader we have gone independent has been a crook. Let them go out and fight. And this is really the problem that the Kiev government faces, which is to make people feel they have a stake in Ukraine as an independent country."

      http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/russian-speaking-troops-seize-ukrainian-n...

      I wonder what Ed Snowden has to say for himself ? Sock puppet , David Weigel writes "No one has asked Snowden, Cyborg Thought Leader, anything about Russian politics or the Crimean incursion...Snowden should leave Russia and give himself up to American justice and become an advocate for his cause."

      "THEY’RE still lying, and they’ll go on lying"

      After being subjected to lies, it's refreshing to listen to Snowden: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVwAodrjZMY

      Reality check

      Mar 20, 2014 at 9:18am

      The West and Ukraine pushed too hard and are reaping what they sowed. Complain all you want about treaties and what's right, apply sanctions and fuss away. But face it: It's not going to get Crimea back, and it won't stop Russia from attempting to maintain and build its buffer against the West going forward. Heck, Russia has now decided to send warships on visits to Cuba like they haven't done in years. Vex them on their own block, they'll vex you on yours. Not right? Maybe, but sphere-of-influence reality's always going to rule the day.