Gwynne Dyer: Stupidity in action in Ukraine

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      It’s all too easy to imagine the high-level meeting in Kyiv where the Ukrainian government decided on its next move. It probably sounded a bit like this: “Very well, gentlemen, we are agreed on our strategy for dealing with the Russians. First we will figure out exactly what they are trying to force us to do. And then we’ll do it.”

      Of course, it sounds stupid when you put it like that, but this does appear to be the Ukrainian strategy in a nutshell. Or as Ukrainian Security Service General Vasyl Krutov put it, “They [separatists] must be warned that if they do not lay down their arms, they will be destroyed.”

      As I write this, the first reports are coming in of Ukrainian troops trying to take back control of occupied government buildings in the east of the country by force. This cannot be done without killing people. And that is exactly what the Russians want.

      The provisional government of Ukraine does have a serious problem in the east, of course. It is trying to organize a national election in less than six weeks’ time that will produce a government whose legitimacy nobody can question. There may be a referendum on constitutional reform at the same time. It will be harder to do that credibly if government buildings in half a dozen eastern cities are occupied by armed men.

      On the other hand, if Russia’s president Vladimir Putin really wants to seize control of eastern Ukraine, or even all the parts of Ukraine where there are significant numbers of Russian-speakers, what he needs is a pretext. It’s already clear from Russian official statements what that pretext would be: that the “fascist puppet government” in Kyiv is “killing its own citizens” just because they are Russians or Russian-speakers.

      It is doubtful that all or even most of the heavily armed men in the occupied buildings are actually Ukrainian citizens. There was no separatist political organization in the east before the revolution that was capable of producing hundreds of volunteers with military training, wearing identical uniforms and carrying identical Russian-made weapons, and using them to seize multiple targets in different cities simultaneously.

      It looks like Crimea all over again: a lot of the “local militia” there were also really Spetsnaz (Russian special forces). But there is a big difference: the Donbas, the region where Donetsk and the other affected cities are located, does not contain a civilian majority that actually wants to be ruled by Russia. If it did, the pro-Russians could just come out in non-violent crowds, like the protesters did in Kyiv, and take control of the region peacefully.

      The Crimean tactics won’t work in the Donbas, because most people there see themselves as Ukrainian even though they speak Russian on a daily basis. So there are no peaceful mass protests demanding “unification” with Russia, and the small groups of armed men who have seized buildings in various cities will only provide a usable pretext for a Russian invasion if some of them are killed by Ukrainian government forces.

      The truth, mercifully withheld from the soldiers in the occupied buildings, is that they are there to provide some martyrs—and when they die, Spetsnaz or not, they will be portrayed as local people killed by the government in Kyiv. Then the Russian forces will move, to “save” the oppressed Russian-speakers of eastern Ukraine from the fascists in Kyiv.

      So why is the Ukrainian government going to provide Putin with exactly that pretext by attacking the buildings in question? It would be inconvenient, but quite possible, just to blockade them, leave them in Russian hands and carry on the election around them. Or, if the authorities in Kyiv find that too embarrassing, then just cut off the water and wait for the occupiers to come out peacefully. A week or two should be enough.

      You would think that the government in Kyiv, which came to power itself by mainly non-violent means, and finally won when the Yanukovych government discredited itself by the massive use of force, would understand the importance of not killing people. You would, it appears, be wrong to think that.

      Maybe this conclusion is premature. Maybe, when the “volunteers” occupying the government buildings don’t flee at the first shots—and they won’t; these guys are professionals—the Ukrainian troops will be ordered to stop. Common sense could yet prevail. But the Kyiv government has been doing the wrong things in the east for so long that a last-minute change of heart seems unlikely.

      And by the way, could somebody please explain to the Central Intelligence Agency why the optics of sending John Brennan, the director of the CIA, to Kyiv last Sunday were so bad? And why swatting the critics away by saying that it was just a “routine” visit made matters worse?

      Governments that are “routinely” visited by the head of the CIA are usually puppet governments. Though to be fair, in this case it’s not so much a puppet government as a very stupid government.

      Comments

      13 Comments

      doconnor

      Apr 16, 2014 at 11:27am

      "First we will figure out exactly what they are trying to force us to do. And then we’ll do it."

      Sounds like the American government after 9/11.

      I Chandler

      Apr 16, 2014 at 12:10pm

      " It's doubtful men in the occupied buildings are actually Ukrainians...hundreds of volunteers with military training, wearing identical uniforms and carrying identical Russian-made weapons"

      The Dailymail has video of some civilians blocking a Ukrainian tank in a little car - they look civilian:
      Ukraine's armoured vehicles are being seized by pro-Russian militants:
      "All the soldiers and the officers are here,' he said. 'We are all boys who won't shoot our own people. Later on, the same soldier was quoted by the AP as saying: 'Our bosses made the decision and we obeyed."
      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2605828/Tanks-bearing-Russian-fl...

      "just come out in non-violent crowds, like the protesters did in Kyiv, and take control peacefully."

      What were they were singing? We Shall Overcome?
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqerP44Mj10

      "You would think that the Kyiv government, which came to power by mainly non-violent means"

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0kTv_8lwiQ

      "why the optics of sending John Brennan, the director of the CIA, to Kyiv last Sunday were so bad?"

      LOL - Maybe Brennan needed to talk to the puppet president and Victoria - but he didn't want NSA or Snowden listening in...

      SH

      Apr 16, 2014 at 5:05pm

      When I was a kid in the 1970s, Odessa was in Russia. And when Putin annexed Crimea it seemed almost righteous of him to do so.

      But I don't think Putin wants to protect People from Kiev, as much as he wants 1/2 of the Black Sea coastline and shipping ports.

      The time to act has come and gone. And if Kiev hasn't got enough intelligence on the street to know what's going on in it's own country, how can it be expected to respond when the next building is taken over?

      When someone breaks into your country you mobilize and fight, or you don't. It's my opinion that the Ukraine military doesn't want to be commanded by the rookies in Kiev. Putin sees this.

      I've never understood why Russia doesn't develop in the East. Putin could do a huge trade with China and emerging Asian economies hungry for oil and gas. He could do a lot more harm to the US in the long run.

      The West could develop alternative energy sources and keep money out of Putins coffers, but that would solve the problem, and put people out of jobs making bullets.

      Joe Srach

      Apr 16, 2014 at 6:23pm

      Odessa has always been part of Ukraine.
      The systematic Moscow policy of Russification has been in place since Czarist times and was especially implemented under Communists. That is why in the villages in Eastern and Southern Ukraine you will still hear the Ukrainian language while in the urban areas you hear Russian. Russian was imposed, at times by force, but more often by limiting jobs, enrollment in higher education and political work to those who spoke Russian. In addition to Russification Russian citizens were moved from Russia to Ukraine.
      Mr. Dyer is correct. Ukraine is in an impossible position. Do nothing and Russia annexes part of Ukraine or fight and Putin gets his excuse for full scale invasion. Even provoking Putin's wrath means blood will run. How this makes the interim government stupid is difficult to see.
      The real danger is yet to come and not just for Ukraine. Ukraine together with Russia, the UK and the USA signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum by which Ukraine gave up the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for a guarantee of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. By invading and annexing Crimea and now attempting to do the same to Eastern Ukraine Putin betrayed Ukraine. What's more the world has become a much more dangerous place. Every tinpot dictator including leaders of North Korea and Iran see no benefit to entering into nuclear disarmament, Why should they? Just witness what has happened to Ukraine.

      Rosco

      Apr 16, 2014 at 7:18pm

      “You would think that the government in Kyiv, which came to power itself by mainly non-violent means,”

      Wrong again Dyer, as usual.

      The pro-EU crowd, liberals, and other “peaceful” marchers posed no threat to the existing order and were easily smashed by the Berkut.

      It was the militant nationalists such as Pravy Sektor who fought the police, took the bullets and baton swings, and occupied government buildings to create the conditions to delegitimize Yanukovych’s rule. While the Western media did its best to portray the protests as an outpouring of a desire to be Westernized -- with the protestors representing a diverse spectrum of society -- the fact is the men in balaclavas were not throwing Molotov cocktails on behalf of same-sex marriage and mass immigration.

      But now the US needs fighters in the Ukrainian army and not on the street. They also want politicians who will quickly sign onto integration with the EU and won’t hassle them about the stipulations that comes with accepting a bailout from the IMF. The nationalists are not those people -- now they are simply a nuisance to US interests. And so, similar to what happened in Egypt in 2010, the militant / nationalist factions were promptly disposed of. There is simply no way that America will invest millions of dollars and place a stake in their geopolitical scheme into a country, and then let that country be overtaken by anti-liberal forces.

      David English

      Apr 16, 2014 at 8:10pm

      At this point it seems a toss-up between the Kiev government doing stupid things despite being warned otherwise, or they're being tricked into doing stupid things by people that care nothing for the people of Ukraine. Maybe Mr. Dyer is right, or maybe there are bigger games afoot. I don't know.

      But, it does seem like Putin is being dragged over his own red line. Will he really send those 40,000 troops into Ukraine? He could have got off with Crimea. Marching into mainland Ukraine will bring nasty costs to Russia on a host of fronts, far worse than any possible gain. But, they will be nothing compared to the costs for the Ukrainian people.

      Ukraine risks becoming another Syria... this time on Russia's border. The only ones that could possibly win from that are those far away.

      DR-Montreal

      Apr 16, 2014 at 9:03pm

      Totally wrong on that one Dyer, outside of your take on the inept CIA-sponsored "government" pawns in Kiev.

      There WERE huge crowds of "Ukrainians" urging the "Ukrainian" troops to defect... and they did. Spetsnaz? Wasted on symbolically occupying government buildings in east Ukraine? Hilarious--this sounds like a CIA plot soon to be heard on CNN.

      Note also that capturing a flat airfield with no defensive potential, as is usually the case, is absolutely nothing compared to going into a heavily populated urban area where many people are hostile to your presence.

      The only clever person in all this is Putin, and he does not need the dire threat of Spetsnaz cooked up by foreign journalists like Dyer (pun noted)to push things along, when he can just sit back and watch the slow-moving train-wreck of this CIA instigated putsch in western Ukraine unfold at a quickening speed daily.

      SH

      Apr 16, 2014 at 9:07pm

      My mistake, Odessa was behind the Iron Curtain in the Russian sphere. Why did WWII allies go their separate ways? I find US Russian relations tedious at best.

      I don't think the Ukraine government is stupid, and I am sure the military is excellent and ready. Yet the initial claim by Putin was that he was 'protecting citizens' has faded. No one has attacked citizens during the interim. Russia is not to threaten the citizens of Ukraine.

      Of all the institutions in Ukraine I would think the Military and Agriculture would be at the fore. Only the former can affect the situation, and they've made a token effort to surrender some personnel carriers to 'the other side.'

      And that's the rub. The citizens must ask for intervention, and the military won't help.

      We shouldn't worry that Putin takes East Ukraine, we should accept that only force will drive Russia from Crimea. The citizens of Ukraine cannot do it, and the military will not.

      Possession is cyclical and we have no history of hot war.

      Keep People alive.

      P.Peto

      Apr 17, 2014 at 1:09pm

      Consider this: the unelected, illegal Ukrainian regime are not really "Stupid" but rather they are compliant to their puppet master[s],namely, the oligarchic republic of America. Their masters want to provoke a "civil war" in the Ukraine to create chaos on the borders of Russia, just as they have done to other non compliant states like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Venezuela. They have set a geostrategic trap for Russia to intervene in Ukraine on behalf of indigenous Ukrainian Russians who are rebelling against their puppets. If the Russians invade this gives the Americans a further pretext to escalate further hostilities against RUSSIA, which is in the process of repudiating the American petrodollar.To distract the American masses from their economic misery and to use the threat of war to prop up the faltering US dollar, which is the ultimate safe haven for world capitalists. Of course , the Russians know this and will try very hard not to fall into the American trap but it will be very hard for them to stand aside to not come to the rescue of their Slavic brothers.

      Hypie\

      Apr 17, 2014 at 4:24pm

      The actual people of the Ukraine, even Westerners, are becoming well fed-up with the junta government in Kiev. Troops deployed by them to “destroy” the protesters are defecting over to the Russian side.

      http://en.ria.ru/world/20140416/189244276/50-Ukrainian-Soldiers-Join-Fed...

      Interesting that this was not okay when it was alleged that Yanokovich did the exact same thing (killing protesters), except against protesters who were literally being bankrolled by the US taxpayer instead of genuinely pushing for change.

      And of course, as it turned out, the Maidan was killing its own people. Which is why they still refuse to investigate the shootings.

      The claims that Russia is responsible for fomenting the troubles become simply idiotic when it is seen that even Maidan’s own soldiers are defecting to the side of the protesters.

      Dyer and the Western media are going to have a hard time explaining this one. It must be very difficult to come up with an excuse as to why murdering protesters is okay in one case and not in another, how overthrowing a democratically elected government is okay and opposing a junta coup government is not okay.

      The glaring inconsistency makes spinning this thing nearly impossible.

      Putin has played this brilliantly.