Canadian political junkies will have Edmonton on their mind this weekend.

That's because NDP Leader Tom Mulcair will find out in the Alberta capital if he still retains strong support from the membership.

The federal New Democrats are lagging in the polls and their provincial counterparts were trounced this week in Saskatchewan.

In the face of this, you would expect the knives to be out for Mulcair. But most New Democrats have either been muted or wildly enthusiastic about him remaining at the helm.

Here are five reasons why Mulcair might survive:

1. The B.C. branch has a reasonable shot at forming government in 2017

Traditionally, the federal party has had a disproportionate number of members from B.C. The somewhat timid B.C. New Democrats are not going to want a federal party bloodbath as they're about to take on Premier Christy Clark. Nor do they savour the prospect of a more radical voice (i.e. Niki Ashton) putting forward provocative policy proposals in a federal leadership race just as they're positioning themselves as mushy moderates ready to govern.

2. New Democrats outside Quebec feel Mulcair is their best bet inside Quebec

Le Bon Jack (i.e. Jack Layton) had a spectacular 2011 breakthrough in Quebec, thanks in part to Mulcair's high credibility in that province. If Mulcair is tossed aside, there's a concern among many of English Canada's New Democrats that their party will never recover there. This is notwithstanding an open letter by Quebec New Democrats seeking "party renewal".

3. Fear

If a leader is being pushed out, there's a chance that those around him will lose their jobs, party consultants will miss out on contracts, and MPs on good terms with the boss could be demoted. That's a recipe for nastiness. And anyone who is publicly seen to be out for blood could pay a very high price in future nomination races or in other ways. Former B.C. MLA Jenny Kwan discovered what happens to NDP whistle blowers when she fronted for a group of caucus members dissatisfied with the leadership of Carole James. One zealous James supporter threw feces at Kwan's home and she was treated as a pariah despite 15 years of service to the party. Eventually, Kwan decided to quit to run federally, leaving the B.C. NDP with no Cantonese-speaking MLA.

4. Climate change

Mulcair has higher credibility with the environmental movement than many other New Democrats because he has demonstrated genuine interest and a great degree of knowledge around climate change. The NDP must be able to blunt the Green party or else it risks becoming even less relevant. Some see Mulcair as the best man for this task.

5. The niqab, childcare, and Bill C-51

Mulcair's principled positions defending women's right to wear the niqab, supporting universal childcare, and opposing Stephen Harper's antiterrorism law stood him in good stead with New Democrats. Under Mulcair, the NDP might have lost the election, but party members believe they fought the good fight, which could buy him two more years as the boss.

Here is one reason why Mulcair should be replaced:

1. He was a rotten campaigner

Mulcair was a wooden speaker during the 2015 campaign. His stump speech sucked the life out of his audiences. Even though he delivered virtually the same address in many communities, he still relied on a teleprompter again and again. Mulcair also came across as stilted in televised debates. For B.C. New Democrats who grew up listening to former premier Dave Barrett's stemwinders, Mulcair was about as inspirational as Ben Affleck in Batman v Superman.