By-elections suggest resurgent federal Liberals will capture more seats in Greater Vancouver in 2015

Yesterday's by-elections in Ontario and Alberta demonstrate that the federal Liberals have the most momentum going into the 2015 election.

With a strong candidate in Toronto-Spadina in councillor Adam Vaughan, the Liberals won a decisive victory over the NDP.

This seat had been held over three elections by Olivia Chow, the widow of former NDP leader Jack Layton.

In the suburban Toronto riding of Scarborough-Agincourt, the Liberals' rookie candidate, Arnold Chan,won by a far larger margin of victory than his predecessor, Liberal Jim Karygiannis.

The Liberals even fared well in the heart of the oilpatch, more than tripling their percentage of the vote in Fort MacMurray–Athabasca.

So what does this mean in the Lower Mainland, where the federal Liberals were reduced to two seats in the 2011 election?

It suggests that several ridings held by Conservatives and New Democrats are in play for them.

Vancouver South, which is held by Conservative Wai Young, will be high on the Liberal agenda. Previously held by former Liberal cabinet minister Ujjal Dosanjh, it's more likely to swing Liberal again as a result of redistribution, which has moved some Conservative voters on the west side of the riding into the new seat of Vancouver Granville.

Vancouver Granville was created as a fairly safe Conservative bastion in the middle of the city, encompassing Shaughnessy, almost all of Oak Street, and other high-income areas on the West Side. But it could conceivably go Liberal, given Canadians' fatigue with Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

Keep in mind that Vancouver Granville includes voters south of West 6th Avenue in the Fairview neighbourhood, many of whom have voted in the past for Liberal Hedy Fry.

It's hard to imagine apartment dwellers in this area being big Harper supporters, giving the Liberals a base upon which to build their support.

Meanwhile, some of the more Conservative-voting areas of Vancouver Quadra have been included in the new riding, thereby strengthening Liberal Joyce Murray's hold on the city's westernmost constituency.

If the federal New Democrats were riding higher in the polls, they may have a better chance in the mostly downtown riding of Vancouver Centre, which has been held by Fry since 1993.

But it's hard to see how Fry could lose when her party is so much more popular under Justin Trudeau than it was under MIchael Ignatieff or Stephane Dion. The Liberals' recent success in the federal by-elections may discourage stronger candidates from stepping forward for the NDP to run against Fry.

The federal Liberals know they will have difficulty taking Vancouver East, given the likelihood that Jodie Emery will be running against popular NDP MP Libby Davies. Anything is possible, though, as long as the Liberals maintain their huge lead over the New Democrats in recent national polls.

Liberal Anna Teranna won Vancouver East in 1993 and Art Lee took Vancouver East for the Liberals in 1975. So once in a generation, it can fall to the Liberals if they're polling way ahead of the NDP at a national level. However, it's hard to imagine an Emery upset against one of the NDP's most popular MPs.

A better bet for the Liberals is Vancouver Kingsway, which is represented by hard-working New Democrat Don Davies. This used to be one of the safest Liberal seats in the region during the Jean Chrétien era, but the moderate Davies has found just the right political pitch to appeal to voters in this diverse riding.

Meanwhile, Vancouver Kingsway has lost some its higher-income West Side residents to Vancouver Granville, which could strengthen Don Davies's hand.

However if his party is trailing the federal Liberals by more than 15 points in national polls on election day, it's quite possible that the former labour lawyer won't survive a Trudeau landslide.

Given the Liberals' success in the Toronto suburbs in the by-election and the recent provincial election, it's safe to assume that the federal party will increase its share of the vote across the Lower Mainland in the 2015 general election.

In the Lower Mainland, redistribution has changed the dynamics. Elections Canada calculated of the 30 new seats added across the country, 22 would have gone Conservative based on 2011 voting results.

The Liberals' best bets in this region may include North Vancouver, Richmond Centre, and Surrey-Newton, parts of which they held during the Chrétien–Paul Martin era.

West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country is another possibility. Former West Vancouver mayor Pam Goldsmith-Jones has become the Liberal candidate.

In addition, the new riding of Burnaby North–Seymour has potential for the Liberals. Entrepreneur Terry Beech, who was once elected as a councillor at the age of 18 in Nanaimo, hopes to be the candidate.

The Conservatives will be very competitive in Burnaby North–Seymour if three-term District of North Vancouver councillor Mike Little secures his party's nod.

This riding combines the eastern part of the North Shore with the northeastern section of Burnaby. The Liberals were not competitive in Burnaby-Douglas the last time out, where New Democrat Kennedy Stewart narrowly defeated his Conservative rival, Ronald Leung.

In light of current polls, it's not out of the question to consider the possibility of a Liberal sweep of the North Shore, along with victories in four or five of the six Vancouver seats.

In Richmond, traditional NDP voters will be tempted to go Liberal if there's a widespread perception that this is the only way to turf Conservative MP Alice Wong.

One of the Liberals' biggest challenges, however, will be developing a strong enough ground game in the suburbs to compete against the New Democrats and Conservatives.

The NDP and the Conservatives have had many years of practice in identifying their supporters and getting them out to vote. It's an often overlooked aspect of politics.

Journalists like to focus on the political air wars: what's taking place in the media and with the national campaigns. While the air war is important, what's taking place outside of the view of the media on doorsteps is equally significant.

Sometimes, elections are won in ridings based on the hard work of a candidate and a party's ability to get people to polling stations on election day.

The Liberals have considerable strength in this area in Vancouver Quadra and Vancouver Centre, which helped Murray and Fry survive the party's national debacle in 2011.

Trudeau's party machinery is not quite as strong in Burnaby or New Westminster, where the NDP organization reigns supreme. This will make things tougher for the Liberals in Burnaby South and New Westminster–Burnaby. The eastern part of Fraser Valley is Conservative country.

This helps explain why Liberal backroom operator Mark Marissen is so eager to help Coun. Barinder Rasode in Surrey, where his federal party is hoping to register a breakthrough.

If Marissen quarterbacks a Rasode mayoral campaign, it will bring him in contact with hundreds of volunteers in B.C.'s second-largest city.

It will also  give Marissen and his fellow Liberals deeper insights into voting patterns in Surrey, strengthening the party in time for the 2015 federal campaign.

Who knows? If Rasode runs for mayor in 2014 and loses, she could conceivably re-emerge as a federal Liberal candidate the following year in Surrey-Newton or Surrey Centre.

Even if the Liberals fail to win any seats in Surrey in 2015, their stronger presence in the city will force the Conservative and NDP national campaigns to devote more resources there to preserve what they hold.

This, in turn, could create more room for the Liberals in ridings that they're targeting in other areas of the Lower Mainland, notably in Vancouver and the inner suburbs.

The 2008 municipal elections across the region were seen by many as a dry run for provincial parties in advance of the 2009 campaign.

It's safe to assume that the 2014 municipal elections will be a testing ground for the federal parties going into their next general election.

The Liberals, in particular, have a good reason to get more involved in Surrey even though they were shut out south of the Fraser River the last time around.

The same is true on the North Shore and in Richmond and Vancouver, where there's plenty of potential for the party to make gains under Trudeau in 2015.

Comments (11) Add New Comment
Hazlit
If you want a party that wants to increase funding for the arts, give teachers everything they ask for, fund higher education properly, increase corporate taxes, and vehemently opposes natural resource development whom do you vote for?
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AJ
Even most experienced political pundits know that making big predictions based on 4 by-elections, in 2 provinces, during a long weekend, with a very low turnout is an unwise thing to do. We have seen far too often seats getting picked up by the opposition during a by-election, then getting retaken by the governing party in the general election. By-elections mean less than we really think they do.

While I agree that Trudeau has the potential to pick-up in Surrey due to the Liberals' traditional support within the South Asian community, there are various other assumptions made in this article that haven't been thought through. E.g. I believe Trudeau will have a hard time winning in Richmond. Richmond is the quintessential "suburban" riding with bread-and-butter voters... they vote on the economy, tax cuts, and whoever is good for business. Liberal policies on pot and carbon tax aren’t going to be attractive enough to swing many of these voters Liberal.

Another thing in the article that should have had more research is about the Vancouver ridings. If the author checked Elections Canada’s projections based on 2011 results, it’s Vancouver Granville that is more vulnerable for the CPC than Vancouver South (which had basically the same vote percentages as 2011 even under new boundaries).

Anyway… time will tell what will happen in 2015. They say a week is a lifetime in politics, and yet we still have a year to go.
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Bruce
Except for the small problem that Trudeau Jr supports the Kinder-Morgan pipeline, and the majority in the lower mainland do not. More importantly, the ratio of "strongly oppose" to "strongly support" is 2:1.

Amazingly, the ratio for voters under 35 is 44 to 1. You could ask younger voters how they felt about lighting themselves on fire and you probably wouldn't get a ratio like that.

http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/KinderMorgan0514_...
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Charlie Smith
Dear AJ,

If you saw Justin Trudeau at the Pink Pearl Restaurant being mobbed by first-generation Chinese immigrants on January 31, you might have a different view of Liberal prospects in Richmond.

We don't know who the Liberal candidate will be. But I've noticed Mayor Malcolm Brodie adopting a higher profile in recent weeks concerning transit funding, which will be a central Liberal plank in the next election campaign. He's doing this even though Richmond already has its Canada Line, which happened to be approved thanks to a $450-million contribution from a Liberal federal government.

If Brodie were to become the Liberal candidate, Alice Wong would be in trouble.

I think it's far too early to count out the Liberals in Richmond, given that the party held the riding from 1993 to 2000 and from 2002 to 2008.

Charlie Smith
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TJ
Partially flawed analysis, Charlie.
First, the Libs didn't win 2 seats in the Lower Mainland last election - they won 2 seats in ALL of BC.
In fact, they won only 5 seats west of Ontario.
Second, national polling is not the only metric at play. You are ignoring polling in BC, where the results have consistently showed the NDP even with, or higher than, the Liberals.
Third, while the Libs have credible shots at Vancouver South and Granville, no way will they take Vancouver East or Kingsway. Both Libby and Don Davies had greater than 50% of the vote last time - more than all their opponents COMBINED. Both work incredibly hard in their ridings, are very popular across all communities and are very strong constituency MPs (the factor that really determines elections).
In Kingsway's case, in 2011, the NDP had 24,000 votes - the Libs barely 7,000. The percentage was 50.1% to 16%. Even a Trudeau surge (if it happens, which is far from certain once he has to perform in his first election) makes overcoming those numbers almost impossible.
Libby is even more entrenched.
Both NDP MPs won multiple elections with far stronger pluralities than did Hedy Fry or Joyce Murray, who were in much tighter races.
I see Wei Young losing to a Liberal, and Granville being competitive. I also see the Libs having shots in Surrey and Richmond, as you say.
But East Van? It's staying NDP....
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Martin Dunphy
TJ:

Most people can agree it would be unlikely for Davies to lose.
But nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
And nobody expected Anna Teranna to win Van East.
Stuff happens. Just sayin'.
And as far as polls go, may I direct you attention to a certain provincial election?
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TJ
Hey, Martin:
Well, polls being suspect goes both ways, no?
If the polls that showed the provincial NDP were famously inaccurate - the same thing applies to federal polls now.
And by-elections are virtually meaningless. The previous 4 by-elections saw the Cons keep 2 seats and the Libs keep 2 seats they already held. The last 4 by-elections saw the same thing - except the Libs took back Trinity Spadina, which the NDP always had a hard time winning, even with Olivia Chow.
More proof? Kevin Lamoureux won Winnipeg North for the Libs, taking it from the NDP who held it for decades, just months before the 2011 federal election - and we all know how that turned out!
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Martin Dunphy
TJ:

Man, you just have to have the last word, don't you? Thanks for ignoring my point.
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Vancouver Watcher
Interesting ideas, but the fact is that the NDP won just two (2) more seats outside of Quebec than they had pre 2011 election. So much for the "orange wave".
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Loki
You armchair analysts had it wrong in both Ontario and Quebec all the way through the run-up to the election. You read way too much into only those things that support what you want to believe. And you read way too much into these 4 by-elections.
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TJ
Actually, the NDP won 7 more seats outside of Quebec in 2011 than in 2008 (37 to 44).
Interestingly, in 2011 the NDP won more seats outside of Quebec (44) alone than the Liberals won in the entire country (34).
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