Housing prices shot up on Mayor Gregor Robertson's watch, but does the NPA have the guts to tackle the problem?

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      Today, NPA city councillors were down near Kitsilano Beach for a protest over the city's plan to spend $6.4 million to expand the sidewalk on Point Grey Road.

      The city's goal is to create a more desirable pedestrian experience for those who want to walk or jog the seawall around Stanley Park and continue across the West Side to reach Jericho Beach and Spanish Banks. But residents in one of the city's most expensive neighbourhoods are upset that landscaping will be removed as part of this project, which will take place on city-owned land.

      The NPA later issued a news release criticizing this "wasteful infrastructure spending". The NPA also cited a $3.5-million plan to install fencing on the Burrard Bridge. This is supported by Vancouver Coastal Health and Crisis Centre B.C. to reduce the risk of suicide.

      The NPA has sided with Heritage Vancouver, which has argued that the fencing will undermine the bridge's heritage value. It's not going to win the hearts of some Vancouverites who've lost a family member to suicide.

      In addition, the NPA has condemned what it calls a lack of consultation around a new Beatty Street bike lane, which will run in front of a military garrison.

      Anyone who was on a bike route this weekend probably noticed gazillions of other cyclists. The NPA's "bikelash" in recent years hasn't helped it win the confidence of those who see cycling as a means to save the planet. 

      While all of these public statements set the NPA apart from Vision Vancouver, they aren't the issues that will sway the next election. The NPA played the "Vision isn't listening" card in 2014 and still went down to defeat.

      In 2011, then federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff also tried this tactic against Stephen Harper's Conservatives, only to be crushed in the election.

      The only way that the city's main opposition party will retake city hall is if it focuses on the issue that everyone's talking about: housing.

      Home prices rose on Gregor Robertson's watch

      The reality is that under Vision Vancouver's rule, condo prices have reached nearly $1,000 per square foot on Main Street going up the hill toward Mount Pleasant. Prices are even higher in the precinct immediately around the Olympic Village.

      Only a few years ago, condos near the Mount Pleasant library and community centre were selling for $550 to $600 per square foot, which seemed high at the time. More recent price rises have been a shocking turn of events.

      This zone could see even higher home prices in the coming years with construction of a new hospital on False Creek Flats and the opening of the new Emily Carr University of Art + Design. These projects will attract even more people to the area.

      As things stand now, nurses who will work in the new False Creek Flats hospital or new college instructors at Emily Carr probably won't be able to afford to live nearby.

      Gregor Robertson has expressed concerns about housing affordability, but is he really tackling the problem?
      Yolande Cole

      Mayor's solutions fall short

      One of Mayor Gregor Robertson's responses has been to propose a tax on empty homes, some of which are worth millions of dollars. This will likely have very little impact on affordability for people looking for condos in Vancouver under $300,000 or for one-bedroom rental suites under $1,200 per month.

      Robertson has also tried to stimulate the development of "market" apartments built by large Vision Vancouver campaign contributors. These units go for monthly rents that are simply unaffordable for those caught in Vancouver's housing crunch.

      But his party has been reluctant to take on neighbourhood associations in any serious way and push for much greater densification in single-family zones.

      Sure, there's the occasional clash over spot rezonings, such as Shannon Mews near Granville Street and West 57th Avenue or the redevelopment of the Safeway site at Granville and West 70th Avenue. Laneway houses are being promoted, which offer homeowners a chance to increase revenue with a second unit on-site.

      There's also been densification in Norquay Village and it's proposed for the Collingwood neighbourhood, where Vision Vancouver doesn't feel it will pay a heavy political price. In addition, there will be a few new towers under the West End community plan to accommodate a growing population.

      Meanwhile, First Shaughnessy has been converted into a "heritage conservation area", which might lead to more rental dwellings going into some old houses. There aren't a lot of Vision Vancouver voters living there, and this move helped deflect criticism about the pace of demolitions.

      But to deal with a growing population, all of these measures do not even come close to adding enough housing at prices that low-to-moderate-income Vancouverites can afford.

      That's because of the growing population.

      B.C. Stats reported that in the first three months of 2016, there was a net increase of 7,426 immigrants to the province.

      "This is a noticeable increase when compared to the net gain of 1,835 reported for the first quarter of 2015," the agency stated. "This is driven by the increase in the total number of immigrants arriving in British Columbia from January 1 to March 31 (+11,750), almost double the number registered during the same three months in 2015 (+6,772). As for persons leaving B.C. for international destinations, an estimated 3,359 left on a permanent basis and 1,376 were away temporarily in the first quarter of 2016, unchanged from the same period in 2015."

      B.C. Stats also reported a net increase of 5,067 interprovincial migrants to this province in the first quarter of 2016, which was "by far" the highest gain for any province or territory. It was driven, in part, by the exodus of people from Alberta, with 2,628 moving to B.C.

      In addition, there were also 1,418 more births than deaths in the first quarter in B.C.

      The City of Vancouver has about 13 percent of B.C.'s population. If 13 percent of these new B.C. people live in Vancouver, that would add up to 1,808 new residents in just three months. Extrapolating that over the year, it would result in 7,232 new residents. But because immigrants are more likely to move to the Lower Mainland than other parts of B.C., the number could easily be much higher.

      Southeast False Creek has become unaffordable for many Vancouverites.
      Stephen Hui

      Immigration could increase

      Meanwhile, the Liberal Party of Canada has promised several changes to make it easier for certain types of immigrants to come to this country.

      For example, the maximum age for dependents who can move to Canada will be raised from 19 to 22. There will also be greater access for applicants with Canadian siblings. In addition, the number of parents and grandparents who can immigrate will be doubled from 5,000 to 10,000 per year.

      The previous Conservative government capped immigration at around 250,000 per year. It's unclear what impact the Liberals' policies, which include accepting 25,000 Syrian refugees, will have on the overall annual total.

      All of this is apart from the effect of Airbnb on the number of affordable rental apartments.

      If Vancouver politicians want to keep a lid on housing prices, they're going to have to adopt policies that go much further to address increasing pressures on the existing stock of homes. And somebody has to stand up to the premier and declare that the goal should be to reduce housing prices rather than pledging not to do anything that might diminish the value of homeowners' increasingly bulging nest egg.

      Municipal politicians are going to have to come up with a housing policy that's in sync with the country's immigration policy and interprovincial migration trends.

      Sad to say for the homeowner-dominated neighbourhood groups, it's going to require a whole lot more densification.

      For years, we've heard the phrase NIMBY to describe those who don't want new housing projects in their back yards. It's on display all over the city.

      If prices continue escalating, there's a real chance that non-homeowning millennials in Vancouver may try to counter this. Don't be surprised if some band together to become YIMBYs, i.e. Yes In My Back Yard, like they've done in San Francisco, where housing prices are in the stratosphere.

      A catalyst for the YIMBY movement would be if proposed projects offer the prospect of buying units at less than $300,000 or renting for something significantly lower than $1,800 or $2,000 per month.

      There is an opportunity for the NPA to fill this void in the political marketplace should it have the courage to challenge the homeowner-dominated neighbourhood groups.

      Of course, any politician who does this will get hammered at public hearings. And it would also involve standing up to developers, who invariably try to maximize their profits in a hot housing market.

      But is it really reasonable that a condo should cost $1,000 per square foot along Main Street? That alone should be proof that something has gone completely haywire in the city's planning process.

      Why not pledge to approve some sky-high rezonings in certain areas if the proponent is required to keep the price at $500 per square foot? To prevent buyers in these projects from flipping their affordable units, legislation could put them and any subsequent owner legally on the hook for a windfall-profits tax if they tried to sell within a 30-year or 40-year period. 

      Would it really be the end of the world if some more affordable condos were built in Kerrisdale or Kitsilano or Mount Pleasant, even if they blocked some views?

      The NPA has an opportunity to get really imaginative in trying to address the city's housing crisis. But this won't happen if it's too preoccupied with stopping suicide-prevention efforts and bike lanes, not to mention worrying about the width of the sidewalk along Point Grey Road.

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