Gwynne Dyer: ISIS and the coalition of the unwilling

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      “If Hitler invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons,” said Winston Churchill in 1941, defending his decision to regard Stalin as an ally after Germany invaded the Soviet Union.

      If the brutal fanatics of ISIS and their new “Islamic State” in parts of Iraq and Syria were really an existential threat to the United States, then President Barack Obama, using the same logic, would now be treating the governments of Syria and Iran as allies. But he isn’t.

      U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has just ended a recruiting tour of the Middle East, signing up Arab states and Turkey for a new coalition that will allegedly “degrade and ultimately destroy (ISIS).” Moreover, it must do so without ever requiring U.S. “boots on the ground”: the American public would not stand for any more of that.

      The U.S. will happily provide air strikes if others will do the dying on the ground, of course, and the Iraqi government will go along with that deal since it has just lost a third of its national territory to ISIS. But it will take a long time to rebuild the Iraqi army after its recent collapse—and the only other U.S. allies who are willing to die to stop ISIS are the Kurds.

      Jordan will supply intelligence services. Turkey will make it harder for would-be jihadis to cross its borders with Syria and Iraq (the route by which most of ISIS’s foreign recruits have traveled), but it will not let the U.S. use Turkish air bases for military operations. Egypt murmurs words of encouragement but makes no specific commitments.

      Almost all the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait included, have promised to stop the large flow of donations from wealthy individuals to the various jihadi outfits in Syria (including, at least until recently, ISIS). The United Arab Emirates reportedly even offered to carry out air strikes against ISIS. But it’s hardly a mass mobilisation, and it doesn’t involve any “boots on the ground”.

      There are plenty of boots available if Washington wants them, but they are on the wrong feet. The Syrian Army has been fighting the jihadis for almost three years now, and after its initial losses it has managed to hold its own against them everywhere except in eastern Syria. Elsewhere, it has actually been gaining back ground for more than a year now.

      Then there is Iran, a big, industrialised country whose armed forces do know how to fight. Iran provided the key support for the local Shia militias that stopped ISIS from sweeping into Baghdad last summer, and it has been providing indispensable support to the Syrian government for years.

      Finally, there are the “wrong” Kurds. The Kurds of Iraq can be part of the coalition, because they have their own self-governing region and are legitimate recipients of American military aid. But the Kurdish nationalist forces of northeastern Syria and southeastern Turkey, who have lots of combat experience and have been holding their own against ISIS, are classed as “terrorists” by Washington and so cannot be part of the gang.

      But Washington has not asked these major players to join its new coalition. Indeed, it has invited everybody in the Middle East to join except those who are actually willing to fight ISIS on the ground. How peculiar.

      There are reasons for this odd behaviour, of course. The obsessive American mistrust of Iran goes back to the hostage crisis of the late 1970s, and is reinforced by Israel’s paranoia about Iran.

      Turkey would go ballistic if the United States started arming the Kurdish rebels of the PKK, who have fought a long and brutal war (currently in remission) against the Turkish state. And it’s just too abrupt a U-turn for Obama to start doing business with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, whom he was getting ready to bomb just one year ago.

      Maybe a rebuilt Iraqi army can drive ISIS out of Iraq eventually, although ISIS has lots of local support in the Sunni Arab parts of Iraq. But where does Obama think the troops will come from to drive ISIS back in its Syrian heartland?

      His only answer is to build a new “Free Syrian Army” composed of “moderates” who will fight on two fronts, defeating ISIS while also overthrowing Assad. But that’s ridiculous, since the old FSA has almost all been absorbed into the various jihadi groups in Syria. There is nothing left to build on.

      For added comic effect, this new Free Syrian Army will be trained in Saudi Arabia, the principal supporter and paymaster of those same jihadi groups until ISIS scared it into hedging its bets.

      One is tempted to think that Obama is not really all that worried about ISIS as a strategic threat. One is further tempted to speculate that he has learned not to care too much about what happens in the Middle East any more. But those are subjects for another day.

      Comments

      17 Comments

      Distraction

      Sep 17, 2014 at 5:44pm

      ISIS is a distraction to take international eyes off the brutal oppression of Palestinians that gained some media airplay over the last few months.

      P.Peto

      Sep 17, 2014 at 7:51pm

      Gwynne rightly points out all the contradictions and absurdities of American policy with regards to ISIS,ISIL or IS. However he rally didn't touch upon how the US itself was instrumental in creating this new terrorist "threat" or bogyman. See
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMjXbuj7BPI by 'storm clouds are gathering'.

      We should not be really surprised that a Muslim insurgency is now in the ascendency after more then two decades of western inflicted wars and punishment on Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The reasons are nicely explained by the former Prime Minister of Malaysia, DR. MAHATHIR MOHAMAD. See
      http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/09/17/stop-postulating-the-clash-of-civ...

      One is simply astonished by how easy it is to bait the Americans to go on the war path by the public spectacle of a couple of beheadings. The jihadists seem to be unafraid of American wrath, THEY SAY 'come and put some American "boots on the ground" so we can behead more of you, supply your proxies with more American weapons so we can add to our stockpiles, catch us if you can with your drones and jets, we are not afraid of you. OH, BY THE WAY, we bought shares in your weapons manufacturers, with your dollars which we looted from IRAQI BANKS'!
      See “War is Good for Business"
      http://www.globalresearch.ca/contractors-ready-to-cash-in-on-isis-war/54...

      I Chandler

      Sep 17, 2014 at 11:03pm

      The Obama administration, working through Russia, has secured an agreement from Assad to permit U.S. airstrikes against ISIS:
      http://consortiumnews.com/2014/09/17/reported-us-syrian-accord-on-air-st...

      "Turkey will make it harder for would-be jihadis to cross its borders with Syria and Iraq (the route by which most of ISIS’s foreign recruits have traveled), "

      Will they stop buying oil from ISIS?

      "but Turkey will not let the U.S. use Turkish air bases for military operations. "

      Turkey wouldn't even let Bush invade Iraq from Turkey in 2003.

      doconnor

      Sep 18, 2014 at 6:02am

      "ISIS is a distraction to take international eyes off the brutal oppression of Palestinians that gained some media airplay over the last few months."

      ISIS's oppression is way more brutal then Israel's by almost every measure.

      I Chandler

      Sep 18, 2014 at 8:28am

      Dyer: "Winston Churchill, defending his decision to regard Stalin as an ally "

      Stalin? Wasn't Assad another Hitler? I thought Putin another Stalin - but i might be mistaken.
      William Blum writes that Hitler , I mean Stalin, used the well-known Kosovo precedent, a precedent our Western partners created themselves:
      http://consortiumnews.com/2014/09/16/hiding-ukraines-neo-nazi-reality/

      " a new “Free Syrian Army” composed of “moderates” who will fight on two fronts"

      I'm glad they're vetting the “moderates” before they join the FSA - You wouldn't want any extremists getting in... NBCnews reported that the Chocolate King's shock troops have Nazi symbols on their helmets:
      http://consortiumnews.com/2014/09/16/hiding-ukraines-neo-nazi-reality/

      Dyer: "For added comic effect, this new Free Syrian Army will be trained in Saudi Arabia, the principal supporter and paymaster of those same jihadi groups"

      John Kerry claims ISIS wasn't state suported - they're just robbing banks and selling oil...

      Intel/ Co-intel pro/ Spook Community

      Sep 18, 2014 at 9:16am

      ISIS/ISIL/Islamic State is usnig US military M4 carbines- not the photo op Ak 47's you see online. This is current US Military Ordinance that are being supplied by rogue elements in the US Government. Their supplies are being FLOWN IN by plane.....ISIS/IIL/IS doesn't have planes....what foreign government is supplying them? The leaders of this organization DO NOT act like Muslims according to intel...who are they Really?

      Distraction

      Sep 18, 2014 at 10:40am

      @doconnor

      Israel has been oppressing Palestinians for over 6 decades, stealing their land, killing them to steal their land and shoving millions into a squalid open air prison called Gaza. Israel has been trying to destroy the spirit and hopes of an entire, with the abetting of the western world. This is more monstrous than anything ISIS has done in the few months that they have been around.

      ISIS is definitely a distraction to the real problem in the area, whether they are truly a local grown outfit or one created to provide such a distraction and an excuse for more US military intervention.

      TRUTH

      Sep 18, 2014 at 10:48am

      @doconner

      The ISIS/ISIL/ Islamic State leader Abu Bakr Al Baghadi is a MOSSAD Agent- an Israeli Citizen- can you explain this? I await your answer.

      Bill Casey

      Sep 18, 2014 at 11:05am

      @Co-intel pro

      "The leaders of this organization ...who are they Really?"

      The leader spent did time at Abu Ghraib - Maybe we'll see the leader Artichoked - a judge recently ruled that all Abu Ghraib videos need to be released. We need a journalist to go and interview them. Bob Woodward is a good* journalist. He might do it. He's brave enough - spending al that time in dark garages. He would be a hero - Jon Stewart/Senator Lindsey Graham say that ISIS is coming after us: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hNvpTGkufk

      Scary? Here are brave journalists interviewing leaders @ headquarters, explaining everything:
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4Vrsjs_cLg
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5y8PtfKA14

      *Good but spooky - Schieffer of CBS News said, "Woodward has established himself as the best reporter of our time. He may be the best reporter of all time" Unfortunately Bob might be too busy doing death bed confessions.

      "The leaders of this organization DO NOT act like Muslims according to intel..."

      Tina Turner once asked 'What's Islam got to do with it, got to do with it?'

      nitroglycol

      Sep 18, 2014 at 11:18am

      Hey "TRUTH", your claim that Mr. al-Baghadi is an Israeli citizen and Mossad agent is interesting, but do you have any actual evidence for your claim? I'm no friend of Israel, but you can't just post such a dramatic claim without evidence.