Australia could be on verge of condo price crash

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      Sometimes, it seems that real estate is the only news story that people care about in Vancouver.

      It's supplanted the stunning rise in fentanyl-related deaths, the growing global crisis with climate change, and the B.C. government's plan to build a $3.5-billion 10-lane toll bridge across the Fraser River. 

      Many commentators are pointing to Australian-type solutions to stop foreign real-estate purchases in Vancouver, even though it appears that most homes are being bought by permanent residents and Canadian citizens.

      This morning, I was curious to find out what was going on in Australia's property market. I wanted to know if measures to stop foreign buying were having any impact on prices Down Under.

      In Sydney, apartment prices rose 6.7 percent in the second three months of the year, according to a company called CoreLogic. Melbourne prices were up 1.1 percent over the same period.

      But according to a July 7 article by News.com.au's Frank Chung, a "growing number of experts are warning Australia could be heading for an apartment market crash of epic proportions".

      He quoted AMP Capital's chief economist, who forecast a possible apartment-price reduction of up to 20 percent if interest rates increase or if there's a recession. House prices could drop by 10 percent.

      Chung's article noted that apartment prices in Perth and Adelaide were down 5.5 percent and 4.1. percent, respectively, in the second quarter of 2016.

      Part of the problem is an oversupply of units, but another factor cited in the article is more restrictions on foreign buying.

      NAB chief economist Alan Oster told Chung that there are no signs that purchasers from China are defaulting. But Oster also noted that there will be a problem "if they all decide to sell at once", though "there's no bloody obvious reason why they would".

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