Gwynne Dyer: Netanyahu calls election in Israel as world loses patience over his approach to Palestine

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      Benjamin Netanyahu, “Bibi” to both his friends and his ever-growing list of enemies, is running for a fourth term as the prime minister of Israel. He called the election, two years early, because the leaders of two of the parties in his coalition government had become too openly hostile to his policies. So he is rolling the dice again in the hope of being able to form some different coalition.

      That’s what he always does. His coalitions draw mainly on the centre-right and, increasingly, the far right, partly because that is where he stands personally on “security” issues and partly because Israel opinion in general has been drifting steadily to the right. But beyond that, he has no fixed policy. His primary goal is to hold his coalitions together and stay in power.

      Netanyahu is hardly unique in this. Professional politicians anywhere tend to divide into two types, the “conviction politicians” and the players, with the majority usually in the latter category. He is a tremendously good player of the game, but it has a paralyzing effect on Israeli politics.

      Since he cannot afford to come down in favour of either a real “two-state” solution that allows for an independent Palestine or a single Israeli-ruled state that permanently controls all or most of the occupied Palestinian territories, Israel never gets to choose between the two. Until, perhaps, now.

      Netanyahu’s excuse for refusing to choose has usually been the lack of a valid Palestinian negotiating partner, and there is certainly some basis for that. Mahmoud Abbas, the “President” of the Palestinian Authority, has not faced an election, even within his own Fatah party, for 10 years. Moreover, Abbas has no control over the 40 percent of the Palestinian population who live under Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.

      But it is more an excuse than a reason. Genuine negotiations envisaging a Israeli withdrawal from most or all of the West Bank and a real Palestinian state, even a demilitarized one, would destroy any coalition Netanyahu has ever built. Going flat-out with the extreme right-wing project for a “one-state” solution incorporating the whole West Bank but denying Palestinians the vote would do the same. Result: permanent paralysis.

      Indeed, Netanyahu has even encouraged Israelis to believe that this peculiar status quo can be a lasting substitute for a negotiated settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is a ridiculous proposition, but it clearly has appeal for Israelis who would like to believe that they can have security without the pain of territorial compromise.

      Meanwhile, however, the outside world has been losing patience. Abbas has been pushing for a November 2016 United Nations deadline to end the Israeli occupation unless two-state negotiations have succeeded by then. And last week the European Parliament voted to recognize Palestine statehood “in principle” as part of the two-state solution, with Jerusalem as the capital of both states.

      The EU resolution also said that Israeli settlements in the occupied territories are illegal under international law—as indeed they are, but it has not been normal for Israel’s allies and supporters to say so explicitly. (The European Union has granted Israel trading privileges so extensive that it is practically a member economically.) The vote was 498 in favour and only 88 against, and there was a standing ovation in the chamber afterward.

      The rot is spreading rapidly. Four national Western European parliaments—Ireland, the United Kingdom, France, and Spain—have recently endorsed resolutions in favour of Palestinian statehood, and Sweden has actually recognized Palestine as a state. Other European Union members are on the brink of doing so, and even Israel’s final line of diplomatic defence, an American veto, is no longer guaranteed.

      The United States has used its veto on the UN Security Council to shield Israel from resolutions that criticize the country 41 times in the past 40 years. Indeed, it has used its veto for no other purpose since 1988. Israelis fully expect Barack Obama to use it a 42nd time to defeat Mahmoud Abbas’s appeal for a two-year deadline for an agreement on a two-state solution when it comes before the Security Council, most likely in January.

      They are probably right, but Obama will be sorely tempted to let people think that he might not use the veto, and perhaps also to push the Security Council vote down toward the March 17 date of the Israeli election, in the hope of influencing Israeli voters to turn away from Netanyahu.

      It’s quite common for Israeli voters to push back when they feel they are under foreign pressure to make concessions, so this could actually play out to Netanyahu’s advantage. A great deal can happen between now and March 17, so one shouldn’t give too much weight to current polls. But at the moment, the numbers suggest that Netanyahu’s gamble on forming a new coalition may not succeed.

      And that might open the way to one last attempt to make the two-state solution work.

      Comments

      9 Comments

      John Turnbull

      Dec 24, 2014 at 12:59pm

      Netanyahu's belief that "this peculiar status quo can be a lasting substitute for a negotiated settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" is not ridiculous at all.

      Israel's secure position is entirely dependent on the US, which shows no inclination to change. In fact, despite some early-term presidential rhetoric, the State Department's committment to the expansion of Israel's territorial control has only strengthened. The attempt at "negotiations" have served that interest.

      In the waning months of Obama's term, there is hardly any hope that this US-Israel realtionship, which is based on a shared fear, will alter a single Palestinian life for the better. Red or Blue, US politics are emeshed in a program of economic dominance that requires the control of large "surplus" populations, domestic and foreign alike. Israel is a world leader in the command and control of non-combatants. The US pays its tuition and learns these lessons at every level -- from municipal police departments to automated drone operations. (Lists of the police chiefs and military staff who have studied Israeli techiques and technology are easily avalable.)

      Israel will eventualy suffer the failure of every war-mongering state in history, but it will survive as long as the US continues to pay it and surround it with a military buffer zone. At the moment, there is no end in sight for the annual $3 billion grant or the end of ground operations against non-compliant Arab/Persian states. As Canadians, we can only hope that our largest trading partner, protected by geography, will survive its Middle-East adventures.

      Whether it's Netanyahu's Likud or some "moderate" winner, Israel will follow the Zionist dream/nightmare, and Palestians will suffer. Happy Holidays everyone.

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      I Chandler

      Dec 24, 2014 at 4:08pm

      Dyer: "And that might open the way to one last attempt to make the two-state solution work."

      Dyer's naivety leads one to question Santa's list. Does Dyer still believe?

      Dyer: "BIBI to both his friends and his ever-growing list of enemies..."

      Is ISIS on BIBI's friend or enemy list? Dyer might suggest isis is on Santa's naughty list.

      Dyer: "Politicians tend to divide into two types, the “conviction politicians” and the players"

      Politicians can also be divided into naughty and nice. BIBI is nice - Just like Only Nixon could go to China, Only Bibi can go to Gaza.

      We know that both the Castros and Putin are on the naughty list. If the Cubans can embrace Santa and his reindeer, they can enjoy Xmass.

      We now know Cuba’s economy is in terrible shape. Dyer doesn't explain that Santa does not just send in elves to rescue countries - he sends in the NED/USAID and their corporate partners:

      http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/12/22/who-was-alan-gross-working-for/

      "DAI has worked for the US State Department,Pentagon, World Bank and private sector giants like Monsanto, Wal-Mart, HP, Exxon Mobil, Daimler Chrysler, Unilever and The Gap."

      We tackle fundamental social and economic development problems caused by inefficient markets, ineffective governance, and instability”, says DAI about its work. “Since 1970, we have worked in more than 150 countries—delivering results across the spectrum of international development contexts, from stable societies to challenging environments racked by political or military conflict.”

      Venezuela is also naughty and ended up with new US sanctions on the very same day that Santa re-established diplomatic relations with Cuba:

      " DAI acted as a conduit for USAID and NED funds to the Venezuelan opposition to president Hugo Chavez. Furthermore, it was instrumental along with NED affiliated organizations for financing black propaganda on Venezuelan private network TV during the general strike in 2002. "

      Dyer: "President Abbas, has not faced an election, for 10 years."

      Oh well. As long as your nice - elections are not important:
      http://williamblum.org/chapters/killing-hope/bulgaria-albania

      Putin has been naughty and he gets coal in his stocking:
      http://www.mining.com/germans-give-up-on-getting-back-their-gold-held-in...

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      Janice Vian

      Dec 24, 2014 at 10:13pm

      I had thought, a few months ago, that Ebola would spread to Palestine, and be uncontrolled there, so that Israel would have had to assume control over the whole territory. I fully expected Ebola to spread all over the Arab world, as a consequence of widespread travel by African Moslems around the time frame of Ramadan. Interesting times we live in.

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      Adrian C.Y. Fu

      Dec 25, 2014 at 9:57am

      Self-determination for Palestine now! End the Zionist occupation of Palestine now! From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!

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      Uncle Jack

      Dec 25, 2014 at 3:35pm

      Great name!!

      F.U!!

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      Israel Uber Alles

      Dec 25, 2014 at 3:49pm

      Palestine is used as a proxy issue by people who think that any sufficiently large group of violent, underfed people may declare themselves "sovereign" and then demand an aid package, which they get to distribute amongst themselves, because they are "sovereigns." It's nutbar talk.

      These same socialists, who require a coercive structure to give the aid packages, will also _never_ allow the same to be done on a per-household basis. My family has lived on this spot in BC for decades. Why can we not declare an independent state? So Palestine depends on Israel for aid---I'd depend on the City for water. Same deal, right? Not to loony lefties!

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      @Israel Uber Alles

      Dec 26, 2014 at 8:53pm

      It's interesting how rational comments like this tend to get very few upvotes, lots of downvotes. I wonder if those voting down have a cogent refutation or if they are just emoting. If Palestinians can declare their own state, why can't I? I'm not brown-skinned enough?

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      Me Yu

      Dec 27, 2014 at 12:32am

      I find it grotesque that Canada and the US BOTH support a so-called "nation" that has been sanctioned over 130 times by the UN for flagrant violations of the UN Charter, the UN Conventions- not to mention the Vienna Convention AND the Genenva Convention........

      It is unfathomable that the "so called state of israel" thinks that it can continue without some form of backlash.

      We have been told to forget that the area that the "israelis" call their homeland belonged to someone else, first. If you do your homework, you'll find that the area was, has always been, and hopefully will be again- an Arab state.

      The State of Palestine.

      It's sad that the powers that be continually try to say that Palestine never existed. Simply sad...

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      SPY vs SPY

      Dec 31, 2014 at 2:38pm

      Israel is nothing more than a European Military Colony - Financed by Europe and the USA

      I am astonished that a Simple Barrier of Words - Conceals and Camouflages Israel's Ultra Racist and Murderous Culture.

      Think of all those Ultra Devoted White Baptists in the Southern USA - who would not have hesitated for a second from lynching any and all African Americans - who would have dared to walk into any of those White Baptist Churches. Yet they believed they lived lives of Devotion to Jesus.

      Zionists are similar to those Nazi soldiers on whose belt buckle was printed--- -----GOD IS ON OUR SIDE