Dissecting the spin behind the Royal visit to B.C. and the Trudeau government's conditional approval of an LNG plant

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      Sometimes, it's hard to take the news seriously. There's so much public relations and bluster going on that you need to be a grandmaster in chess to figure out the game.

      The recent Royal tour is one example. Why have the Duke and Duchess spent almost all of their time in B.C. rather than going to any other province? And why was there such an incredible focus on First Nations on this particular trip?

      Here's my hunch: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau encouraged William and Kate to go to B.C. because Trudeau wanted to help his friend Premier Christy Clark's reelection chances.

      It's not a far-fetched notion, given that Clark's B.C. Liberals go to the polls next May. And the Royals are too polite to tell the prime minister off, particularly if they didn't even realize during the trip planning that they might be being used used for political purposes.

      The last thing Trudeau wants is a revived NDP under a future premier named John Horgan. Trudeau's majority depends on retaining most of his party's 17 seats in B.C. in the 2019 federal election.

      Trudeau's handlers know that photos of Clark with Will and Kate boost the premier's stature with what I charitably call "low-information voters".

      These are the folks who pay no attention to the issues and cast ballots for candidates based on the most simplistic reasons.

      If you want to have a good belly laugh, go to the B.C. government's website and marvel at the number of images of Clark with the Royals. I stopped after counting 100 of them.

      Predictably, Clark donned First Nations attire in many of these pictures. This is something she's been doing in recent times to convey her interest in indigenous people.

      Of course, her government has decided to forge ahead with the $8.8-billion Site C dam in northeastern B.C. without First Nations' consent. And without subjecting the megaproject to independent review by the B.C. Utilities Commission. So the reality doesn't reflect the images. 

      (This is the cue for the B.C. Liberal spin doctors to slam me for making a sexist comment about a female politician's clothing.)

      Premier Christy Clark (right) joined cabinet ministers Jim Carr, Catherine McKenna, and Dominic LeBlanc (not in photograph) for the LNG announcement on September 27.

      LNG spin makes Royal visit seem tame in comparison

      But the greatest charade of all concerns the Pacific NorthWest LNG project. Amid massive hype, three federal Liberal cabinet ministers recently flew out to Vancouver to announce that the government had granted approval if 190 conditions were met.

      The media went into overdrive about this "approved" project, even though LNG prices in Japan have been in a free fall. In August, the spot price averaged a mere US$5.40 per million British thermal units. That's far, far below the US$12 to US$13 per price that Deutsche Bank estimated was necessary a few years ago for North American LNG projects to be viable.

      But LNG helped the B.C. Liberals win the last election so why not build this Potemkin Village again in time for the next campaign? Clark  would be doomed if she conceded that it's not going to get off the ground, at least not before Election Day next May.

      The Trudeau government's conditional approval is incredibly convenient for the premier. She can now maintain with a straight face that B.C. still has a shot at creating a homegrown LNG industry. Notwithstanding the low LNG prices. Notwithstanding Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe wanting to restart many of his country's nuclear reactors. Notwithstanding China securing massive amounts of natural gas from Russia in a 30-year deal. And notwithstanding the astonishing increase in uptake of solar power in warmer countries.

      To nobody's surprise, the minister responsible for LNG development, Rich Coleman, is insisting that the Pacific NorthWest LNG is on track. And the majority shareholder, the Malaysian state-owned energy giant Petronas, demonstrated that it's onside with the Clark government by denying a Reuters report that it wants out of the project.

      Meanwhile, the media and environmentalists have zeroed in on the effect of the project on B.C.'s greenhouse-gas emissions. The common question is how can Canada meet its climate targets if something like this is built? Of course, that's not a concern for Trudeau if he privately feels that it will never go ahead...and if he conveys this to Canada's allies who might be worried about greenhouse gas emissions north of the 49th parallel.

      Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak (with former prime minister Stephen Harper) has been at the centre of some massive scandals.

      Malaysian scandals add another level of lunacy

      The behaviour of Canadian politicians is almost comical when you consider what's going on in Malaysia these days.

      There, the prime minister and finance minister, Najib Razak, is under fire for a US$681 million "personal contribution" to his bank account from the Saudi Royal family before the 2013 election. The country's attorney general cleared Najib of any wrongdoing.

      Meanwhile earlier this year, the Hong Kong-based business publication FinanceAsia named Najib as the worst finance minister in the Asia-Pacific region.

      Around the same time, Switzerland's chief prosecutor launched a criminal probe into the alleged misappropriation of US$4 billion from Malaysian state-owned companies.

      Shenanigans in Malaysia have even engulfed film star Leonardo DiCaprio. He's been urged to repay donations to his foundation for rain forest protection linked to the state-owned 1Malaysia Development Berhad.

      1MDB, as it's called, also reportedly financed his film, The Wolf of Wall Street.

      The money reportedly came from two businesspeople, including the stepson of Prime Minister Najib, named in connection with a U.S. Justice Department complaint about 1MDB. The movie itself is even named in the government's complaint, though DiCaprio is merely referred to as Hollywood Actor 1 in the document.

      Leonardo DiCaprio won a Golden Globe for The Wolf of Wall Street, which is now the subject of a U.S. legal action against Malaysian businessmen.

      LNG coverage divorced from scandals

      To date, Pacific NorthWest LNG has not been linked to the scandals swirling around Malaysia's prime minister and his family. But it's still curious that so little of this is ever mentioned by Canadian broadcasters in their breathless coverage of B.C.'s nascent LNG industry.

      Judging from broadcast media reports in particular, most British Columbians could easily conclude that the Pacific NorthWest LNG will be built. According to this narrative, this will put Canada in a terrible position regarding its promises to the international community at last year's Paris climate summit. And First Nations are going to be stuck with a plant in their back yard without their consent.

      Quite likely, none of this is true.

      Malaysia could become the world's next political hot spot if it hits a financial wall.

      A more likely scenario is that Malaysia will eventually hit a financial wall because of massive corruption. A financial default in Malaysia will give a boost to a growing Islamist movement in Southeast Asia, which is home to hundreds of millions of people, including 200 million Muslims in Indonesia. 

      Moreover, 61 percent of Malaysia's population is Muslim. If that country devolves into civil war, it will become a huge concern for its neighbours, including U.S. allies Singapore and Thailand, as refugees flow across their borders.

      If you think Syria is creating headaches for the world, imagine how much worse things will be if Southeast Asia were to be suddenly and seriously destabilized?

      LNG pipe dreams in B.C. are great for fuelling provincial political campaigns. But geopolitical realities are another thing altogether.

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