David Suzuki: Oil prices drop as global warming rises

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      With oil prices plunging from more than $100 a barrel last summer to below $50 now, the consequences of a petro-fuelled economy are hitting home—especially in Alberta, where experts forecast a recession. The province’s projected budget surplus has turned into a $500-million deficit on top of a $12-billion debt, with predicted revenue losses of $11 billion or more over the next three or four years if prices stay low or continue to drop as expected. Alberta’s government is talking about service reductions, public-sector wage and job cuts and even increased or new taxes on individuals. TD Bank says Canada as a whole can expect deficits over the next few years unless Ottawa takes money from its contingency fund.

      It’s absurd that a lower price on a single commodity could have such a profound economic impact, but that’s what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket and fail to plan for such contingencies. With a population and oil-and-gas production profile similar to Alberta, Europe’s largest petroleum producer, Norway, is also feeling the impacts. But much higher taxes on industry, majority state ownership of the country’s largest oil-and-gas company and an approximately $900-billion sovereign wealth fund built from oil revenues are cushioning the fall.

      Some see low fuel prices as good news, but there are many downsides. With driving becoming less costly, more cars and trucks could be on the road, which is good for the auto industry but bad in terms of pollution, climate change and traffic accidents. And because the price of oil is now lower than the cost to extract oilsands bitumen, the industry is starting to put the brakes on rapid expansion plans—bad news for workers and businesses in Fort McMurray and those heavily invested in the industry but good news for the planet.

      Recent research shows most of Canada’s oilsands bitumen—as well as all Arctic oil and gas, most of Canada’s coal and some conventional oil and gas—must be left in the ground if the world is to avoid a global temperature increase of more than 2 C above pre-industrial levels, the internationally agreed-upon threshold for limiting catastrophic impacts of global warming. The report, by researchers at University College London's Institute for Sustainable Resources and published in the journal Nature, concludes a third of the world’s oil reserves, half of gas reserves and more than 80 percent of coal reserves must not be burned before 2050.

      The study also found that carbon capture and storage, touted as one way to continue exploiting and burning fossil fuels, is too new, expensive and limited to make enough of a difference by 2050.

      Study co-author Paul Ekins told National Geographic that putting hundreds of billions of dollars into fossil fuel exploration and development is “deeply irrational” economic behaviour. “What would be ideal,” he said, would be to “use the opportunity of this fall in the oil price to start instituting a global carbon tax, which would take some of the volatility out of the prices.” Removing fossil fuel subsidies would also help.

      John Stone, a Canadian scientist and lead author on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, told CBC the UCL study “is another wake-up call to snap us out of our denial of climate change.”

      With 2014 confirmed as the hottest year on record, and 13 of the hottest 15 years having occurred since 2000, we can’t afford to ignore the consequences. According to researchers, the odds that natural variability is causing today’s climate change are less than one in 27 million! It’s astounding that, in the face of such overwhelming evidence from scientists worldwide, people continue to deny the problem exists or that humans are responsible and can or should do anything about it.

      It’s especially irresponsible when energy conservation and cleaner fuel alternatives offer so many economic benefits, including job creation, greater stability and reduced healthcare costs. As world leaders prepare for the UN climate summit later this year, we must look at the recent market meltdown as an opportunity to shift away from fossil fuels. It’ll be much easier and less costly to get on with it now than to wait until we’re left with few choices.

      Comments

      9 Comments

      Finbarr Saunders

      Jan 20, 2015 at 4:20pm

      Sorry David, but you cried wolf one too many times. Perhaps if you hadn't spent these past years making nonsense doom and gloom prophesies that haven't come true, all the while flying around the globe on your private jet to be paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to speak on this topic, people might be more willing to listen to you. As it stands, you've pretty much lost all credibility.

      The Snufkin

      Jan 20, 2015 at 5:20pm

      @Finbarr. Ummm... David Suzuki doesn't have a private jet and the information in the article is factually and scientifically verifiable. You haven't really presented an argument at all in your string of nonsensical and irrational insults. But then, we probably shouldn't expect a lame cartoon character to have a grip on reality.

      Bob Bingham

      Jan 20, 2015 at 11:19pm

      The oil price volatility is all about a customer supplier relationship with Saudi being the suppler and the USA as the customer. When the USA started fracking and boosted its output, it reduced its imports from Saudi. To expect Saudi to reduce output and income just to help American oil companies is a bit unrealistic. Now we have over supply and a dramatic collapse in prices.

      Consumer Dropout

      Jan 21, 2015 at 7:35am

      I would like to know David Suzuki's opinion on the reversibility of the environmental damage we have wrought on ourselves. I've heard theories that we passed the point of environmental recovery way back in the 1970's. If so, what would he recommend we do to prepare for the inevitable consequences of oil gluttony?

      My favourite Suzuki comment was something like "We seem to believe that people need to adapt to keep the economy running smoothly, but the economy is a construct created by people and should adapt to serve its creators."

      Stop buying crap, people.

      J.M.T.

      Jan 21, 2015 at 8:45am

      Sweet. Cheap gas and warmer temperatures? Sorry, but I don't see the down side to this.

      Hog wash

      Jan 21, 2015 at 11:26am

      I clicked on that Ottawa Sun link and as the page was loading, the name Ezra Levant appeared on the side bar. Before the text finished loading, I had already clicked the little red X in the top right hand corner of the browser window.

      Considering the source...

      Snufkin

      Jan 21, 2015 at 12:11pm

      Here come the deniers, with links to an oil industry-funded Heartland Institute weatherman blogger and Ezra "reckless disregard for the truth (according to two judges)" Levant to back up their nonsense. It would be funny if it weren't so pathetic.

      "Willard Anthony Watts (Anthony Watts) is a blogger, weathercaster and non-scientist, paid AGW denier who runs the website wattsupwiththat.com. He does not have a university qualification and has no climate credentials other than being a radio weather announcer. His website is parodied and debunked at the website wottsupwiththat.com Watts is on the payroll of the Heartland Institute, which itself is funded by polluting industries."

      http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Anthony_Watts

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