Christy Clark's political career is on the line in tonight's televised leaders' debate

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      One of B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark's greatest political assets is her unflappability.

      In public, she comes across as imperturbably optimistic.

      There hasn't been a premier since W.A.C. Bennett who so consistently demonstrates an absence of distress, no matter what the circumstances might be.

      Whereas B.C. NDP Leader John Horgan sometimes shows a temper and B.C. Green Leader Andrew Weaver might be prone to a fit of nervousness, Clark simply sails forward, always smiling, always cheerful, and always ready with a joke to disarm a critic.

      But the state of her campaign is no laughing matter.

      A Mainstreet/Postmedia poll this week showed that the B.C. NDP has surged ahead, with a huge lead in the seat-rich Lower Mainland.

      The poll also indicated that the B.C. Liberals are running third on Vancouver Island, where they could be annihilated for the second straight election.

      Because Clark's personal disapproval rating is so high, her party has been thrusting cabinet ministers like Andrew Wilkinson and Mike de Jong into the spotlight for major announcements.

      It's a sign that the premier may be in serious trouble.

      The B.C. Liberals even hired former Globe and Mail photographer John Lehmann to be the premier's personal shutterbug, but this hasn't helped.

      Lehmann does incredible work but there's only so much he can do with Clark, who's dogged with sky-high negatives.

      Besides, Clark's habit of donning a hard hat to show she's on the side of resource workers is wearing thin.

      It's also likely becoming repellent to some environmentally inclined voters, who see it as a symbol of her government's appalling record in this area.

      Hence the party's dismal showing in urban and suburban areas and on super-green Vancouver Island.

      This is the backdrop to tonight's televised leaders' debate.

      It's increasingly looking like the B.C. NDP has her cornered. And it leaves Clark with a difficult challenge.

      Does she wipe the smile off her face, come out snarling, and show a different side of herself to the public?

      Or does she rely on her usual amusing putdowns and wisecracks, which haven't helped her campaign so far?

      Make no mistake: Clark's political career is on the line tonight.

      If the public concludes that Horgan is a guy they can live with as premier for four years, the wheels will figuratively start falling off the B.C. Liberal campaign bus.

      And if people who hate the B.C. NDP get a sense that they can't stop Horgan by voting B.C. Liberal, they just might throw a protest vote to the B.C. Greens.

      Will history repeat itself?

      A similar scenario unfolded in 1991 following the leaders' debate.

      The Socred premier at that time, Rita Johnston, was on her way out. That was obvious from the polls. Many of those who didn't like the B.C. NDP ended up voting for Gordon Wilson's B.C. Liberals.

      There was no risk turning their back on the governing Socreds because everyone knew the Socreds were toast. On voting day, they were reduced to seven seats in the legislature.

      In 2001, a similar phenomenon occurred. The NDP was spent after 10 years in power. Everyone knew it. So those who were sick of the party and didn't like B.C. Liberals' Gordon Campbell cast protest votes for the B.C. Greens. The B.C. NDP was left with just two seats.

      These were really cases of vote hemorrhaging for governing parties. The same occurred to the federal Progressive Conservatives in 1993, when they were nearly wiped off the electoral map. 

      The bleeding has already started for the B.C. Liberals.

      So far, the premier's smile and irrepressible sense of humour hasn't been sufficient to staunch the wound. 

      This makes tonight's televised leaders' debate far more interesting than previous contests between Clark and the NDP's Adrian Dix or Campbell and former NDP leader Carole James.

      The show starts at 6:30 p.m.

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