Christy Clark faces a bigger risk than B.C. voters if Adrian Dix stays in front in the polls

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      More than halfway into their third term, it's clear that the B.C. Liberals and their leader, Christy Clark, are in serious political trouble.

      A recent poll by Forum Research Inc. showed that the B.C. Conservatives under former MP John Cummins had caught up to the B.C. Liberals.

      Each had 23 percent popularity, whereas the B.C. NDP was well ahead with 34 percent support from British Columbians.

      If these numbers hold up until the May 2013 election, it would probably result in an NDP majority under Adrian Dix.

      In light of this, it's not surprising that the B.C. Liberals have responded with a negative TV and online campaign targeted at Dix.

      Through its riskydix.ca website, the governing party is trying to convey to the public that electing the NDP carries some risk. The use of unflattering black-and-white photos and claiming that the opponent isn't "coming clean" are standard tactics used by governing parties when they're behind.

      Why now? The real risk for the B.C. Liberals is if their traditional supporters feel there's no downside in abandoning them.

      This is what happened to the Social Credit Party in 1991 when a viable non-NDP party emerged in the form of the B.C. Liberals. The Socreds were virtually obliterated because the public felt there was no risk in voting for the other party.

      Two years later, the same fate befell the federal Progressive Conservatives when their traditional supporters felt there was no risk in voting Reform.

      We saw it again in 2001 when NDP supporters abandoned the party en masse to vote for the B.C. Greens. This left the NDP with just two seats in the legislature after the election.

      If the next poll shows the B.C. Conservatives running ahead of the B.C. Liberals, then the wheels are probably about to start falling off Clark's party in the same way.

      People who don't like the NDP will figure that the best way to stop them will be to transfer their allegiance to Cummins, and he'll probably start gaining more momentum.

      This will convince some B.C. Liberal MLAs to sit out the next campaign, making it more difficult for Clark to hold onto existing seats. She'll also have trouble recruiting high-profile candidates, who won't want to be associated with any pending electoral disaster.

      If this scenario plays itself out, B.C. Liberals funders will start hedging their bets by giving more money to the B.C. Conservatives.

      Clark had better remain on good terms with the management at CKNW Radio because the way things are going for her now, she just might need her old job about 18 months from now.

      Comments

      32 Comments

      richard stewart

      Dec 31, 2011 at 6:03pm

      I'm holding my nose and voting Conservative, so the polls sound about rigtht to me.

      Fast ferry NDP and BC Rail Liberals blew it. At least stay accountable to the voters. TransLink is another gem - the next scandal.

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      DR

      Dec 31, 2011 at 7:39pm

      Christy Clark is a woman without substance and her actions are an insult to the intelligence of the people of this province. Witness the recent awarding of the shipbuilding contract to Seaspan. Here is a company that worked years on this project and undoubtedly spent millions of dollars in doing so. And when they deservedly won it there was Chisty front and center taking all the credit for something which she had nothing to do with. Deplorable.

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      Clive

      Dec 31, 2011 at 8:02pm

      This dishonest, lying bunch deserve to go down in flames. Unfortunately they can continue doing a lot more damage between now and the next election.

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      Mad Cathy

      Dec 31, 2011 at 8:34pm

      Christy Clarke and Alison Redford must be sisters. They are both Nuns and pass unfair Nanny Laws. They both passed a law that will charge you with drunk driving after 1 glass of wine (.05%). They have gone to far with their Nanny Laws!
      Vote them out or suffer Nanny laws for years.....

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      ds

      Dec 31, 2011 at 10:18pm

      Christy says, families first and then turns around and gives over a billion in contracts to Alberta based electrical contractors who's parent company is in Texas. Then has these American smart meters installed, laying off meter readers. All the taxes that should have stayed here are gone along with the money that is not spent here. And it's FAMILIES FIRST. Souinds like another Gordy boy move to me.

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      Arthur Vandelay

      Jan 1, 2012 at 12:41am

      The only scare campaign that the Liberals need is to remind people of the Glen Clark government of which Mr. Dix was an integral member. I find it beyond hysterical that the same champions of Mr. Dix endlessly rail about Liberal lying. Apparently writing for or reading the Straight causes nasty cases of amnesia or hypocracy.

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      glen p robbins

      Jan 1, 2012 at 1:56am

      Campbell set the timer on the bomb in 2009.

      Nobody can do the shake (like I do) nobody can do the shing a ling (like I do) Nobody -- nobody but me.

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      RonS

      Jan 1, 2012 at 7:44am

      Clark is an airhead, period! This corrupt government has so much to hide, I can wait to help defeat them whenever they have an election. Then let the investigations begin into the corruption that is the LIbERalS!

      I think airhead is a misnomer, there's only a vacuum between her ears!

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      Maxthegood

      Jan 1, 2012 at 8:03am

      Mr Dix's NDP have lust in their hearts when they look at the current economic structure of our fair province. They would love to get their mitts on the well stocked coffers, spend us into another budget downward spiral, raise our taxes, and bring back their huge, and wildly inefficient, public sector employment bonanza. Jobs for the union boys! They want to banish the profit motive and bring “the means of production and distribution” in BC under government ownership. If you think that’s a scare tactic, read their party constitution! The NDP, particularly now that they are led by Mr Dix, are motivated by jealousy, resentment and the militancy of the radical left economic movements of the 1960s.
      Dix has falsified government documents in the highest offices of the Province, misled a police investigation and orchestrated a web of lies about the Fudge It Budget - remember that one? The thought of an NDP majority with 34% of the vote - by splitting the non-socialist electorate - is the stuff of nighmares!

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      Alfred E. Neuman

      Jan 1, 2012 at 9:08am

      "Study: states that legalized medical pot see decrease in traffic fatalities, beer sales"! (The Missoulian, 28 Dec. Missoula, Montana)
      Researchers "discovered a 9 percent decrease in traffic fatalities in states that passed laws legalizing medical marijuana" and "beer sales in these states dipped 5 percent after medical marijuana was legalized."
      http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/study-states-that-legalize...

      Since the B.C. Provincial Government and Justice system insist on violating our Charter of Rights and Freedoms (for six months or more) in the interest of Public Safety if a policy reduces traffic fatalities (as well as alcohol-consumption & drunk-driving) then we should also demand equally forceful legislation for Legal Medical Marijuana in 2012!

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