Login / RegisterCMHC predicts flat Greater Vancouver housing sales and prices through 2013
A new federal Crown corporation report forecasts a four percent increase in housing starts in Greater Vancouver this year and again in 2013.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation also predicts that housing sales and prices will remain flat through 2013.
The average multiple-listing-service price is expected to fall two percent this year and rise five percent next year.
The average price for a single detached home in the region should reach $1.13 million by 2013, according to CMHC.
Sales volumes are expected to drop three percent this year and increase by eight percent next year.
"While a few municipalities such as the Tri-Cities and North Vancouver have remained in sellers' market conditions, others such as Burnaby, Vancouver City, and West Vancouver have moved to balanced market conditions in the first quarter of this year," the report states. "Richmond moved from sellers' market conditions in the first quarter of 2011 to buyers' market conditions in [the] first quarter of 2012."
The first quarter saw a one percent decrease in the average multiple-listing-service price compared to the first quarter of 2011, the report adds.
The rental market is expected to remain "stable", the report notes, "in response to expected increases in full-time employment and new household formation".
"With home prices forecast to remain steady and mortgage interest rates stable this year and rising gradually next year, the gap between the average monthly rent and mortgage payment may prompt some renters to choose to continue renting rather than move to home ownership," CMHC states. "As a result, expectations are for downward pressure on purpose-built rental vacancy rates."
The report also states that an increase in the number of secondary market-rental units will likely expand the supply.
Follow Charlie Smith on Twitter at twitter.com/csmithstraight.
boomers are selling single family dwellings and are moving into condominiums away from the city .
my feeling is that in a year and a half from now, house prices in Canada will have dropped by 10% with very few transactions taking place compared to last year.
those who sold last year got out at the top of the market.
That's why they are called "news releases". They aren't sent to you; they are sent to media outlets.
It wasn't "cribbed", which means plagiarized.
It was reported and properly attributed.
Read it or not, your choice.
But do get a life.
It's up to you.
I'm not concerned about the attacks. A report came out this morning. I let our readers know about it. And some of them are having a fit because of what some CMHC economist has concluded after doing some number crunching.
The same story probably showed up on CBC, in the Toronto Star, and in other media outlets across the country.
To quote something Gabor Maté once told me, giving people a keyboard and anonymity has a way of reducing inhibitions. In that regard, it's sort of like alcohol or hot weather.
I'm always amused that when I write an attack on Christy Clark, everyone agrees with me. But if I even hint that a housing crash might bankrupt B.C. credit unions or offer a straightforward article on a CMHC report, suddenly I'm the antichrist.
I must admit I got a kick out of the guy who chose the name Bo Xilai. That may have gone over the heads of many readers, but not me.
Charlie Smith
Oh, what has the Georgia Straight become? Its obviously not the same paper my parents naively distributed for free back in the 60s. Now its just a bunch of sell-out boomers pumping real estate in the hopes young families will ruin their futures buried under a pile of debt.
Back when I was a student journalist, we used to make fun of backwoods CUP papers that ran press releases as new stories. They were just newbie volunteers, though, so it was kind of cute. But a seasoned reporter doing this is truly pathetic.
Sorry Charlie, you fail. :)
It wasn't a press release. It was a report that I downloaded and read. Back when you were a student journalist, you probably weren't running a seven-day-a-week website along with a weekly paper and producing a high volume of work.
Today, I wrote six articles, which you can see here:
http://www.straight.com/archives/contributor/charlie-smith
I also wrote a news roundup in the morning.
http://www.straight.com/article-755031/vancouver/news-youse-nhl-stars-co...
I did the page layouts, final proofing, cover lines, and interviews for articles that will appear in the print edition. Plus I posted a poll on the site, updated the around the web section, gathered photos, assigned articles, and basically worked all day and all night because the newspaper industry is extremely competitive these days and I want the Georgia Straight to thrive well into the future.
You can say I failed, but I know the reality. I worked my ass off. Some stuff you hate, like me reiterating what's in a report. Others like what I wrote about Christy Clark and Stephen Harper today.
The reality is you really don't know what you're talking about when you compare your work as a student journalist to what I've been doing today.
It doesn't bother me because I know that most people have no inkling of what other people have to do in their jobs.
Charlie Smith
Thanks for your input.
CMHC offers mortgage insurance, which the financial vultures want privatized to leave people at the mercy of hedge funds. Yes, these are the same types of people who devised the securitized mortgages that contributed to widespread misery.
http://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-news/news/display.aspx?id=18256
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions appears to be colluding with the banks to undermine CMHC, which could prevent the development of nonmarket housing.
http://www.straight.com/article-284364/vancouver/mortgage-alarm-raised
Shorter amortization periods could make it easier for major chartered banks to gain ground on those pesky credit unions.
http://www.straight.com/article-286394/vancouver/straight-article-offers...
What else should I be writing about CMHC? I recognize it came under fire several years ago for not doing enough to prevent the leaky condo fiasco. But would you rather have Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan as the country's major insurer or mortgages?
Charlie Smith
Thanks for the comments.
I will only add that if your parents "naively distributed" the Straight "for free", then, sadly, they may have been naive. Or their (or your) memories may be faulty
For the 25-cent purchase price, the vendor received seven cents, almost 30-percent commission. (Unless they distributed during an earlier free phase).
Regardless, the Straight valued highly all of its vendors and distributors in its earliest days, as it does today. They are the relatively unsung heroes of its history.
The only problem? Post-work Thursday beers cost, comparatively, far more today.
I think you might want to have a chat with your mom - she may have smoked a lot of drugs when you were in her womb.
More on the topic:
http://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-real-estate-bubble-bubble-toil-a...