Login / RegisterNycole Turmel's links to sovereigntists could help the federal NDP
Interim NDP Leader Nycole Turmel's five-year membership in the Bloc Québécois became a big national story during one of the slowest news periods of the year.
It is creating headaches for provincial New Democrats in B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario—where elections are all likely to occur by the end of this year.
As far as I can tell, no media commenators have pointed out how Turmel's past connection with Quebec sovereigntists could actually help the federal New Democrats.
If you think I'm insane for making this suggestion, consider the following:
Ӣ Thomas Mulcair is a front runner to become the next federal NDP leader. He's a federalist from Montreal and former member of the Quebec Liberal cabinet.
Ӣ As a former Liberal member of the National Assembly of Quebec, Mulcair may be viewed with some skepticism by sovereigntists, who previously backed the Bloc. If he becomes NDP leader, these concerns may intensify.
Ӣ Turmel's high profile will mollify sovereigntists and blunt their desire to revive the Bloc. This will help maintain the NDP's strength in Quebec.
Ӣ The federal NDP fares extremely poorly in provinces wherever it holds power. This was particularly evident in B.C. in the 1990s, but has also been true in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Ӣ Turmel's tumultuous start as the interim national leader will be exploited by right-wing politicians in B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario, which could hurt the party's chances of winning any of these provincial elections.
Ӣ As long as the NDP remains in opposition at the provincial level, it has a greater chance of electing more MPs in Ottawa.
There's no proof that this was Jack Layton's game plan when he recommended Turmel to become interim leader. I've already suggested that his primary motivation was installing an older member of caucus who wouldn't be likely to seek the permanent leadership.
But the long-term effect of Turmel's appointment could be a very positive for the federal NDP. This is notwithstanding any collateral damage to its provincial counterparts.
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A clearer indication could not be had of why Steven Harper's Conservatives and the Liberals are so threatened by everything NDP. The President of the NDP, Brian Topp, penned this article that puts a very fine perspective on this last week in Canadian Politics.
The Bloc has repatriated to the provincial Parti Quebecois - with a provincial general election to be held in February 2012 - Soon.
Harper has no support in Quebec where everyone has been a separatist at one time or another including Stephen Harpers own (former) Cabinet Minister. ------------Lucien Bouchard - the Progressive Conservative's organizer in Quebec - - everybody. This is just amateur press night in Canada.
Harper desires to split unions (see Canada Post and public service), Turmel can hold the unions tight - and Quebec supports labour and policies toward the left.
Harper still needs to negotiate the HST deal with Quebec this September and they ain't pleased with how he is dealing with it. For certain the PM is going to pay the price for the HST one way or the other in BC - where he cannot afford to loose any more seats.
Turmel will take the flack willingly - because it is the Conservatives who have a littany of political problems do endure - and a majority which makes Canadians say - "Okay Mr. Bigstuff - show us what you got"
He wont' hold all of Ontario/to the same extent again/ - and with the possibility of vacuum with Layton - and Mulcair extremely popular in Quebec - and a real Rocket Richard calibre politician - and the residual possibility of an amalgamation of all parties other than the Conservatives - I like where the NDP is going. After the last federal election - pundits in Canada must begin to think outside the conventional box/they are running too much public relations and not doing a good job of really analyzing and reporting on politics -imo