Prediction for 2013: the B.C. Liberals will not be destroyed

Many B.C. Liberals are probably heaving a sigh of relief as the curtain falls on 2012.

Poll

Will the B.C. Liberals fare better in 2013 than in 2012?

Yes 24%
59 votes
No 71%
170 votes
Maybe 5%
12 votes

That's because it's looking increasingly likely that their party will still exist after the May 2013 provincial election, albeit in opposition.

This was not a sure thing a year ago when a Forum Research poll had the B.C. Conservatives in a dead heat with the B.C. Liberals with 23 percent support.

At the start of this year, there was a legitimate expectation that the B.C. Liberals might come third in spring by-elections in Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody–Coquitlam, which would finish off the party. 

By April, the B.C. Conservative candidate in Chilliwack-Hope, John Martin, was claiming that the B.C. Liberal carbon tax "is punitive to all economic activity and increases the cost of everything in the province".

"The Liberal government has failed the people of British Columbia and has squandered trust with the public on issues such as paying $6 million in legal fees for two convicted criminals (Basi and Virk) and the introduction of the HST shortly after the last election when they said it was not on the table," Martin wrote in an op-ed piece on this site.

When the B.C. Liberals came second in both by-elections, that let some of the air out of the Conservatives' tires. And in a remarkable about-face, Martin is now the B.C. Liberal candidate in Chilliwack.

The last Angus Reid poll shows the B.C. Liberals have the support of 29 percent of voters. That's a huge lead over the B.C. Conservatives, who are mired at 12 percent. The B.C. Greens are further back at nine percent.

The biggest danger facing the B.C. Liberals is if their supporters feel they have no chance. That's when there's no risk in tossing a vote at one of the fringe parties.

This is what finished off the B.C. NDP in 2001 and the federal Progressive Conservatives in 1993, when each was reduced from forming government to just two seats.

But if the B.C. Liberals can narrow the gap with the B.C. NDP—which has 47 percent support in the last Angus Reid poll—the governing party doesn't have to worry about being obliterated in less than five months' time.

Meanwhile, the B.C. Conservatives and B.C. Greens don't have nearly enough momentum, members, or money to supplant the B.C. Liberals as the party for most British Columbians who loathe the B.C. NDP.

I'm guessing that there will still be enough people willing to vote B.C. Liberal in 2013 to ensure the party becomes Official Opposition. Then it will live to fight another election around 2017.

However, things don't look nearly as bright for Premier Christy Clark. Given the weakness of the B.C. Greens and the popularity of David Eby, her NDP opponent in Vancouver–Point Grey, she's unlikely to keep her own seat.

If Clark loses, that would likely clear the way for a B.C. Liberal leadership race pitting former finance minister Kevin Falcon against some MLAs who survive the 2013 provincial election.

As for B.C. Conservative Leader John Cummins, my bet is he'll go down to defeat against Transportation Minister Mary Polak in Langley. And the B.C. NDP's Andrew Mercier should run a surprisingly strong third.

I also expect the B.C. Liberals' treatment of Abbotsford councillor Moe Gill to haunt them in Abbotsford South, where independent John van Dongen will probably hold onto his seat. 

Comments (27) Add New Comment
Ken Lawson
I disagree especially when people hear about the smart meter and board of directors at BC Hydro which came out to day, where was your staff sleeping on the job again?
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Rating: -8
James Blatchford
Most Inevitable Liberal Fail
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Rating: +27
Pauline Maden
Sorry furthest thing from the truth the Liberals are not in any good position with Clark. Her excuses that the Economy is her focus and not listening to Canadians NOT wanting the pipe line is ridiculous. Harper and Clark need to go!!!! They don't listen!!!
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Rating: +38
cedarsmitty
The worst political party in the history of BC will be destroyed and Christy Clark can work at one of those minimum wage jobs she created.

Good riddance !
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Rating: +54
Keats Morton
I'm suprised that this article didn't mention Adrian Dix's most incredible approval rating, that will play a serious factor in the next election, just like Christy Clark's poor approval rating. I am down right scared if the BC Liberals win again, I do not want to see them continue their sloppy governing.
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Rating: +33
Patrick
I don't think the press can candy coat the Liberals at this late stage of the game. People have had enough of the constant deception for self interest by the Liberals and are demanding a change. To many Crown Corporations have become bloated with upper management wonks parachuted in by their political masters. Dix will clean house and we will have a much needed fresh start. Christy was unqualified for the position from the beginning. An anchor dragging down a very toxic ship.
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Rating: +48
Juan Carlos
It is remarkable how the BC Conservative so brutally squandered this opportunity that was literally gift-wrapped for them by the Liberals. We may never see a better example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Not listening to their members, not listening to their supporters, installing a leader with numerous issues, backing him to the bitter end like crabs in pot of boiling water dragging each other down to a miserable death. What an epic debacle.
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Rating: +38
Will
There's a little the BC LIBs can do. The mood out here is too nasty. They don't stand a chance.
There's a precedent as well. Look up Rita Johnson and the Social Credit.
We're looking at a rerun.
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Rating: +20
BC Mike
Your in for a few surprises!
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Rating: -17
Gromit
By the time the new party comes into power they are going to be left with such an enormous financial and political mess there is going to be a need for a South African style truth and reconciliation commission. What we don't know and will soon find out regarding secret back room financially crippling deals will astound us.
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Rating: +32
Ron S.
Well Charlie if they aren't wiped out they will have to sit there and be humiliated by the revelations of their inept 12 years in government. If so, I will enjoy watching them squirm. What a bunch or bottom feeders.
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bobo
Do you left wing nuts really think government document altering Adrian Dicks and the NDP (Socialist) party will save you? I would laugh if it weren't so serious. Yes the Liberals (not by a long shot) are ridiculous, but the NDP is even more sinister!
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p lg
As long as we have a MSW using its "news" outlets for propaganda we will not know the extent of yet another pawning off of our public assets to "balance" the budget.

Going back to the late 1980's when Bill Vander Zalm was Premier, we saw major public assets sold to bring in revenue to "balance" the budget and have a few crumbs left over for re-election goodies. Unfortunately we lost a very valuable asset, the gas division of BC Hydro, which is now in the hands of private interests, as well as 11 other valuable public assets.

What we have with this Socred/Liberal coalition, with Ms. Clark at the helm, is nothing but a group of desperate politicians auditioning to be pawn stars with our assets.

Pathetic, they deserve to lose.
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Rating: +11
cuz
Hey Charlie, I like how you didn't approve my post because I pointed out that Adrian Dix (the guy who altered government documents) and the NDP were worse than the Liberals. Of course everyone knows you worship the ground the NDP tramples on in their efforts to take away everyone's hard earned money.
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Rating: -9
Charlie Smith
cuz,

There are different people here who approve or reject comments based on whether they're defamatory or not. I can't recall dealing with yours, cuz, because during the week, I deal with relatively few comments.

So if you're feeling like your comment was censored, it was probably done by someone else. I suspect it was done for a good reason and not just to protect me. People attack me all the time in the comments section.

I have a thick skin.

Charlie Smith
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Jennifer
I think the NDP will stay the Official Opposition. People don't want radical changes during these uncertain economic times. That's all this province needs. We need stability and predictability, a party that supports businesses, which means supporting socio-economic advancement and promoting job creation. This won't happen under the socialist NDP. The economy will falter and go to ruins like Spain and Greece.
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Mackenna
The Liberals are DONE. Christy Clark embarrasses herself and her party every time she opens her mouth. Her Jobs Plan is a pack of regurgitated half-truths and outright lies. The Chinese largely state-owned HD Mining has the go ahead to proceed with only Chinese foreign workers (this is not well received by any BC resident). And Christy is still a waffler when it comes to Northern Gateway. The Liberal legacy is well documented by Laila Yule on her web site. These crooks need to be turfed.
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Phil
Iwas hoping the BC Liberals would adress the mistakes they have made, but they continue to lose faith even with free enteprize supporters. The HD mining issue of employing foreign workers in well paying resouce based jobs is a recent example. Misjusdging goverment income by 1.6 $billion and doubling the Provinical debt over their terms is another concern fron a business perspective.
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Rating: +11
James Blatchford
Jennifer,

How is the Kool-Aid? Sweet enough for you? Did it come with talking points on the cup?

We'll see who's looking for work after May 14th.

We'll see what you have to say on May 14
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Rating: +3
judi sommer
Who do you see the last person standing in her current caucus? Coleman seems to be the only given so far.
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Rating: +6

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