Vancouver NPA councillor Peter Ladner's victory over Mayor Sam Sullivan in the NPA mayoral-nomination race could have a significant impact on the city's residents.

However, Ladner will first have to win the mayoral race in November, which might be an uphill battle.

Ladner hasn't demonstrated nearly as much interest as Sullivan and former mayors Larry Campbell and Philip Owen in harm-reduction measures, such as heroin trials or supervised-injection sites.

Many NPA members have been uncomfortable for years with the council's move under Owen to support harm-reduction as part of the Four Pillars approach.

This led to the appointment of Donald MacPherson as the city's drug policy coordinator. Ladner's victory might not be the best news for MacPherson, former director of the Carnegie Centre.

Ladner's emergence as the party's mayoral candidate could also lead to a harder law-and-order approach to property crime. At times, Ladner has resisted police pressures for more funding, but he has also campaigned against aggressive panhandling.

If Ladner is elected, don't be surprised if he asks the provincial government to amend the Safe Streets Act to get tough on panhandlers before the 2010 Olympics. 

On the other hand, Ladner has appeared to be far more interested than Sullivan in securing changes to federal tax legislation to stimulate the development of rental housing.

Almost a year ago, Ladner said the most urgent need was for the federal government to change tax laws to enable private developers to build apartment buildings for rent only.

Ladner also echoed the Canadian Real Estate Association and other groups' call for the elimination of capital-gains taxes on the sale of apartment buildings if the money were to be reinvested in more rental housing. 

Sullivan and his NPA council sidekick Suzanne Anton have been the strongest proponents of EcoDensity; Ladner, on the other hand, once voted against a three-unit rowhouse project in MacKenzie Heights because of neighbhourhood opposition. What this means for EcoDensity is anyone's guess.

Ladner's victory might also create turmoil for other political players.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has no doubt enjoyed having Sullivan as mayor. Sullivan has been supported by many federal Conservatives. His 2005 nomination campaign was run by Colin Metcalfe, now a senior operative in the federal cabinet office in Vancouver.

Ladner has the establishment and educational credentials that federal Liberals often find so appealing. Ladner's victory in the NPA mayoral-nomination contest might be interpreted by some as the revenge of the federal Liberals on Sullivan for playing footsie with Harper.

It was also revenge of the city's establishment, which was never entirely comfortable with Sullivan's eccentricities and his propensity for describing drug addiction as a disability (not to mention for also allowing an addict to smoke crack in his van several years ago).

If Ladner is elected mayor of Vancouver, it could give federal Liberal Leader Stephane Dion a boost if the next federal campaign occurs after the November civic election.

Meanwhile, Ladner's victory could also have an effect on the Vision Vancouver mayoral nomination, which takes place next Sunday (June 15).

Ladner is likely to try to appeal to environmentalists by claiming to support a more sustainable city. No doubt he'll try to woo voters who've previously cast ballots for Green party candidates.

This might persuade Vision Vancouver members to back Gregor Robertson as their candidate as the best bet to offset Ladner.

Both Ladner, former publisher of Business in Vancouver, and Robertson, cofounder of Happy Planet juices, have experience in business.

However, some Vision Vancouver members might see in Ladner's victory a new opportunity for Coun. Raymond Louie as the party's mayoral candidate. 

Sullivan, who speaks some Cantonese, has enjoyed a great deal of support in the Chinese community.

Ladner, on the other hand, did not attract a great deal of support from Chinese Canadian kingpins in the period leading up to the nomination meeting.

Vision Vancouver members might look at this, conclude that Ladner is weak with the Chinese-speaking voters, and then choose Louie as their candidate.

If first-generation Chinese Canadians decided to back Louie en masse to try to elect the city's first mayor of Chinese descent, then Ladner would be toast in the November election.

The only clear loser on the Vision side is park commissioner Allan De Genova. As a Vision Vancouver mayoral candidate, De Genova was well-positioned to attract votes from NPA supporters who disliked Sullivan.

With Sullivan off the ballot in November as the mayoral candidate, there is less reason for Vision Vancouver members to choose De Genova. He won't pull nearly as many disgruntled NPA supporters' votes now that Ladner is heading the ticket; De Genova also won't help the party woo environmentally minded voters either, judging from his response to a Georgia Straight question about peak oil.