Gwynne Dyer: Tony Blair and the great Islamic threat

People often wind up believing their own cover story. Former British prime minister Tony Blair, for example, is trapped forever in the rationalizations he used in 2003 to explain why he was going along with George Bush’s invasion of Iraq. He was at it again last week, telling the BBC that “radical Islam” is the greatest threat facing the world today.

The BBC journalist went to Ireland for the interview because Blair chose Dublin for the only live signing of his newly published autobiography: a personal appearance in Britain wouldn’t be safe. Even in Ireland, the protesters threw eggs and shoes at the man who was Bush’s faithful sidekick in the struggle to save western civilization from radical Islam.

But is militant Islam really a bigger threat to the world than the possibility of a major nuclear war (happily, now in abeyance, but never really gone)? Bigger than the risk that infectious diseases are going to make a major comeback as antibiotics become ineffective? Bigger even than the threat of runaway global warming?

Blair has to say it is, because he was one of the people who launched a crusade against radical Islamists after 9/11. Or at least against those whom they accused of being supporters of radical Islam, although many of them (like Saddam Hussein) were nothing of the sort.

Blair has never publicly acknowledged that Saddam was actually an enemy of radical Islam: admitting that would drain the last dram of logic from his justification for invading Iraq. So he only talks in general terms about fighting “radical Islam” and hopes that the more ignorant part of the public will think that includes the Iraq war.

Never mind. It’s far too late for Blair to change his story, and the argument about Iraq has gone stale by now anyway. Except for one thing: many influential people in western countries still insist that “radical Islam” is, indeed, the world’s greatest threat. Some do it for career reasons, and others do it from conviction, but they all get a more respectful hearing than they deserve.

It depends on what you mean by “radical Islam”, of course. In some western circles, any Muslim who challenges western policies is by definition an Islamist radical. But if it means Sunni Muslims who believe in the Salafist interpretation of Islam and are personally willing to use terrorist violence to spread it, then there aren’t very many of them: a few hundred thousand at most.

These people are unlikely to start blowing things up in New Jersey or Bavaria, though they are a serious threat to fellow Muslims living in their own countries. (They are particularly keen on killing Shias.) The vast majority of them speak no foreign language and could never get a passport.

It’s a big, ugly problem for countries like Iraq and Pakistan, but it is a pretty small problem for everybody else. The number of people killed by “radical Islamic” terrorists in the past decade outside the Muslim world is probably no more than 15,000.

None of these deaths is justifiable, but it is weird to insist that a phenomenon that causes an average of, say, 1,500 non-Muslim deaths a year, on a planet with almost seven billion people, is the greatest threat facing the world today. Yet the people who launched the “war on terror” do say that, as do many others who built their careers by pushing the same proposition.

They do it by the simple device of warning (to quote Blair’s recent interview) that “there is the most enormous threat from the combination of this radical extreme movement and the fact that, if they could, they would use nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. You can’t take a risk with that happening.”

Never mind the quite limited damage that terrorists actually do. Imagine the damage they might do if they got their hands on such weapons. Very well, let us imagine just that.

During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had 10,000 nuclear weapons ready to launch at each other. If they had ever gone to war, hundreds of millions of people would have been killed—even several billion, if it had caused a nuclear winter. And, of course, the two countries had huge biological- and chemical-warfare capabilities too.

If “radical Islamists” ever got their hands on a nuclear weapon, it would be one bomb, not 10,000 warheads. If they managed to explode it, it would be a local disaster, not a global holocaust. The worst poison-gas attack ever, on the Tokyo underground system in 1995, killed only 13 people, and although germ warfare could be hugely destructive of human life, it requires scientific capabilities that are very difficult to master.

Besides, just how does invading various Muslim countries shrink any of these dangers? It probably increases them, actually, by outraging many Muslims and providing the extremists with a steady flow of recruits.

Terrorism, by radical Islamists or anybody else, is a real threat but a modest one. It cannot be “defeated”, but it can be contained by good police work and wise policy choices. It might make it into the top 10 global threats, but it certainly wouldn’t make it into the top three. Anybody who says it does has something to sell or something to hide.

The second edition of Gwynne Dyer's latest book, Climate Wars was published recently in Canada by Random House.

Comments

18 Comments

bcameron54

Sep 5, 2010 at 6:08pm

Blair's book 'A Journey' is the shabby apology of a Prime Minister who enjoyed every political virtue except judgment. It is too late to save the legacy of the political agents of a criminal war on Iraq, against a dictator created, supported, manipulated and then removed for the business interests of the Anglo-American empire. If Blair were to become interesting, he would explain to us why he did what he knew to be morally and ethically wrong, sacrificing so many innocent lives (including the soldiers'), and why he continues to seek absolution in turning to drink, adopting a religion, writing a book and continuing to lie about his judgment and his mistakes. This sycophantic lap-dog of the military-industrial complex lacked the courage to do what was right, and even now lacks the imagination to profit for telling the truth. The explanation and legacy is Blair's bequest to the English language: Poodleism.

NDB

Sep 5, 2010 at 6:44pm

Radical Islam is the biggest threat our world sees today. Thats a fact I completely agree with.

What is even worse is non-radical Islam not condemning the radicals.

Gwynne yo ask "But is militant Islam really a bigger threat to the world than the possibility of a major nuclear war". If radicals got there hands on a nuclear bomb (which has been proven they have been trying to do) would you think the bomb is the threat, or the radicals who have it?

Calling radical islam a "modest threat" proves you have your head in the sand. Would you still consider it moderate the cell in Ottawa wasnt stopped and killed people you love with a suicide bomb?

Keep you eye on the ball.

Paolo

Sep 5, 2010 at 9:38pm

Hitler never killed many people before 1938 either. Amagonnadojihad from Iran is only too keen to set the nukes on Israel, and after that, who next?

Dyer is a Muslim apologist and he should leave this topic alone. Islam is the biggest threat to Western civilization, not only from outside but inside. They use our freedom of speech and religion to fight our freedom of speech and religion. They are corrupting our essence of a free society. We need to stop Muslim immigration to the West now, before it is too late.

BDN

Sep 5, 2010 at 9:40pm

Radical Christianity is the biggest threat our world sees today. Thats a fact I completely agree with.

What is even worse is non-radical Christianity not condemning the radicals.

Gwynne yo ask "But is militant Christianity really a bigger threat to the world than the possibility of a major nuclear war". If radicals got there hands on a nuclear bomb (which has been proven they have been trying to do) would you think the bomb is the threat, or the radicals who have it?

Calling radical christianity a "modest threat" proves you have your head in the sand. Would you still consider it moderate the cell in Ottawa wasnt stopped and killed people you love with a suicide bomb?

Keep you eye on the ball.

R U Kiddingme

Sep 5, 2010 at 10:38pm

There is no way to publish anything critical about I****ism that does not risk a death threat. Threats which are, Gwyn, occasionally backed up by actual death. I don't know of any other ideology that you can say that about today. In terms of raw scores, sure I****ism is well behind cigarettes and ineffective gun control or microbes, but those are all soluble problems because people can openly discuss the threat without being condemned, politically or actually.

There is also the question of what you mean by "the world." If you mean England, Canada etc, then no, it is not a serious problem. If you mean any part of the world that actually has to live by its rules, read some Ibn Warraq.

hAYOKA

Sep 5, 2010 at 11:27pm

NDB your a tit

JBAthens

Sep 6, 2010 at 7:11am

Dyer hits it right on the mark again. The threat of radical Islam in the West is nothing more than trumped up propaganda by our government to distract us from their failings. Look at the so called Toronto 18, how may are actually still in jail? They are free not because of a lacks justice system, but because they were no threat at all. The same will be seen about the Ottawa "cell", in a few months time on the back page of the newspaper the true story will come out. At that time Harper will probably be crying about Russian bombers again or something, anything to distract the masses.

Ron Mayer

Sep 6, 2010 at 12:41pm

I prefer the scenario posited by THE GHOST WRITER. Highly recommended if you haven't seen it, and a must see for anyone who knows their who's who of the silly decade.

NDB

Sep 6, 2010 at 1:56pm

BDN

Ill agree with you on that was well. All religion is poison.

But lets be honest not many Christians today behead other humans yelling "god is great". Can't really say that there have been many Christian Terrorist cells being busted discovered lately...if im wrong on that please enlighten me.

Having said that....like I said above...all religion is poison.

arland7@telus.net

Sep 6, 2010 at 3:30pm

I'm ashamed that the CBC through Peter Mansbridge's interview, would give this raving anti-Islamic idiot (Blair) air time.