No clear favourite in high-stakes by-election

A public man must never forget that he loses his usefulness when he as an individual, rather than his policy, becomes the issue.

-- Richard M. Nixon

What's the biggest issue in the October 28 Surreyí‚ ­Panorama Ridge by-election?

Forget about the book-banning, social-conservative background of Mary Polak, the B.C. Liberal candidate who was chair of the Surrey school board when three kids' books on same-sex parents were kept out of that city's classrooms in a $1-million, five-year legal battle.

And forget about twinning the Port Mann bridge, widening Highway 1, or transportation issues in Surrey.

No, the issue in this by-election is Gordon Campbell and the actions of his B.C. Liberal government since May 2001, not whether or not Polak is a right-wing zealot who favours asphalt for minivans.

But how important is the by-election result? Is it representative of anything broader in B.C. politics, and who will win? Faced with these critical questions, Political Connections was forced to do the only sensible thing: poll the punditocracy.

Former Social Credit government staffer Will McMartin didn't mince words, predicting that the NDP candidate, community activist Jagrup Brar, will win. But McMartin, part of CBC Radio's Early Edition political panel, had a dire warning for the NDP.

"Both parties should be about even in the polls, but the stakes are higher for the NDP, and they should win," McMartin told the Georgia Straight. "If the NDP cannot win Surreyí‚ ­Panorama Ridge in a by-election, I don't see how they can win the general election. If they don't win, they appear to be running for official Opposition, not government."

That's exactly the kind of opinion David Schreck is worried about. "I think the NDP is being set up for a fall, with talk of governments not winning a by-election in 20 years and that the Campbell government is very unpopular," says the former NDP MLA for North Vancouver. "It would be extraordinary for the NDP to win. A betting person would bet on the Campbell candidate to win."

Schreck, whose Web site, www.strategicthoughts.com/, has an analysis of the by-election, said that the riding first created for the 2001 election is composed primarily of parts of Surrey that historically vote against the NDP.

But Erin Airton doesn't agree with Schreck--not surprisingly, because the two debate politics Fridays on 600 AM's Rafe Mair Show. The former Gordon Campbell staffer and federal Conservative party activist says the NDP should be favoured to win unless its vote is split by Green party leader Adriane Carr, who is running in the by-election.

"The only way the Liberals win it is if Adriane Carr somehow pulls out 10 percent of the vote," Airton said. If that happens, Airton believes the NDP vote will solidify in the general election because the by-election will have shown the Greens to be spoilers who set up the Liberal win.

"It's almost better for the Liberals to lose the by-election and have the Greens split the vote in the provincial election," she said.

So, the NDPí‚ ­supporting pundit thinks the Liberals will win and the Liberal-backing pundit is betting NDP, as is the conservative but non-Liberal commentator. Yikes.

Time to turn to Sean Holman, whose Web site, www.publiceyeonline.com/, is a daily must-read for B.C. political observers.

"Internal Liberal polling, I'm told, says the seat is the NDP's to lose, but if that's the case, why would the Liberals be running such a high-profile candidate and investing so much resources in the riding?" Holman wonders.

"It's not a sure thing for the NDP or Liberals. It's going to be a real contest," said Holman, who also writes a weekly column for the Victoria Times-Colonist.

One thing the pundits do agree on: Adriane Carr's decision to run in the by-election is foolish.

"Whoever is advising Adriane Carr should have their head examined," Schreck said. "I can't see anything for the Greens to gain in this."

McMartin and Holman were less blunt, but each said the downside for Carr is considerable.

"A leader has to look like a leader, and if she comes in third or worse, she looks like a failed leader," said McMartin.

Holman said Carr has done little to earn media attention since the 2001 election, so running in the by-election will give her publicity.

"But you have to wonder whether losing an election and costing the NDP a win is the kind of publicity she wants," Holman said.

The key to who wins comes down to one thing: how many people come out to vote. By-elections traditionally have a much lower turnout than general elections.

In the last B.C. election, 71 percent of registered voters cast a ballot, including 70 percent in Surreyí‚ ­Panorama Ridge, but in the last six provincial by-elections turnout ranged from a low of 37 percent to a high of 60 percent. And low turnouts favour the Opposition, because Liberal supporters can safely stay home, knowing the government itself won't be defeated.

"You have to be a die-hard Liberal to go out and vote Liberal," McMartin said. "The Liberals have no reason to vote in a by-election. The big challenge for the NDP is to get out their vote."

Does Liberal candidate Polak's controversial social-conservative history matter to local voters? "Clearly, Mary Polak has a track record as school trustee of being elected and reelected, so she must have some base of support," Holman said.

And Schreck says to watch for an extremely high-spending campaign from the Liberals. "I think the Liberals will throw everything into this one and use it to knock the NDP and validate Liberal actions in government," he said.

So on October 28, expect a classic B.C. electoral donnybrook with high stakes and no clear favourite to bet on. Are pundits ever wrong?

Bill Tieleman is president of West Star Communications and a regular political commentator on CBC Radio's Early Edition. E-mail him at weststar@telus.net.