Are Canadian cannabis stocks ready for a rebound?

by Charlie Smith on April 1st, 2020 at 6:44 AM

1 of 9 2 of 9

I spent part of this morning looking at 12-month charts for various Canadian cannabis stocks. And they painted a dreary picture.

In fact, all major Canadian licensed producers saw their share price fall every single month over the past year.

Yet all of them also showed a significant upswing in the latter part of March after plunging to their 52-week lows.

While some might snicker and ask if the recent jump is a typical bear-market dead-cat bounce, there are reasons for some to believe in cannabis stocks.

That's notwithstanding this morning's plunge on North American stock exchanges shortly after the opening.

Let's start with the fundamentals.

First off, people are likely to consume more weed when they're stuck at home playing Call of Duty, watching HBO, and listening to tunes rather than working.

Secondly, there's been an onslaught of edibles, topicals, and extracts coming on the Canadian market since they were legalized late last year.

Thirdly, provincial regulators, notably in British Columbia, have been cracking down on unlicensed retailers. That's creating more room for licensed private and public stores to thrive. And the licensed retailers only carry product from publicly traded licensed producers.

That's not to say that there aren't still some issues plaguing the licensed producers. (My mother warned me about double negatives in a sentence!)

Namely, the cost of their weed tends to be significantly higher than what's available from private, unlicensed dealers.

But nevertheless, the charts below suggest that something may be afoot in the market.

Technical analysts tend to look for a sign of a breakout rather than focusing on fundamental factors. And to see all these stocks behaving in more or less the same manner could be taken as an indication that the overall sentiment is changing.

But be careful—this market is not for the timid.