TransLink has laid out four possible things that could happen with the ongoing pandemic.
Each scenario involves the regional transportation authority losing a lot of money because of COVID-19.
The worst of the four potential situations is referred to as the “Paradigm Shift”.
It involves “major new outbreaks”, forcing a return to lockdowns. Return to normal is years away, or sometime in January 2023.
Under this Paradigm Shift, a “high travel demand” setting means that TransLink is going to lose $1.2 billion in cumulative 2020-2021 revenues.
Most of the projected losses will be fares, at $795 million.
In a “low travel demand” situation under the Paradigm Shift, TransLink expects to lose $1.4 billion, which is the worst.
Most of the anticipated revenue losses will be fares, at $881 million.
The least dire of the four scenarios is called “Quick Recovery”.
This means a return to pre-COVID 19 conditions by July 2021.
Still, TransLink will be bleeding.
Under this scenario, the transportation authority expects to lose cumulatively between 2020 and 2021 revenues ranging from $544 million to $945 million.
The numbers are found in a report by Geoff Cross, vice president of transportation planning and policy with TransLink.
Cross’ report is in the agenda Thursday (June 25) of the Mayors’ Council on Regional Transportation.