Loss of $1.4 billion worst case revenue scenario for TransLink with COVID-19 pandemic

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      TransLink has laid out four possible things that could happen with the ongoing pandemic.

      Each scenario involves the regional transportation authority losing a lot of money because of COVID-19.

      The worst of the four potential situations is referred to as the “Paradigm Shift”.

      It involves “major new outbreaks”, forcing a return to lockdowns. Return to normal is years away, or sometime in January 2023.

      Under this Paradigm Shift, a “high travel demand” setting means that TransLink is going to lose $1.2 billion in cumulative 2020-2021 revenues.

      Most of the projected losses will be fares, at $795 million.

      In a “low travel demand” situation under the Paradigm Shift, TransLink expects to lose $1.4 billion, which is the worst.

      Most of the anticipated revenue losses will be fares, at $881 million.

      The least dire of the four scenarios is called “Quick Recovery”.

      This means a return to pre-COVID 19 conditions by July 2021.

      Still, TransLink will be bleeding.

      Under this scenario, the transportation authority expects to lose cumulatively between 2020 and 2021 revenues ranging from $544 million to $945 million.

      The numbers are found in a report by Geoff Cross, vice president of transportation planning and policy with TransLink.

      Cross’ report is in the agenda Thursday (June 25) of the Mayors’ Council on Regional Transportation.