Federal New Democrats could face an uphill battle in B.C. in 2019 in wake of Site C decision

    1 of 1 2 of 1

      There have been four federal elections when the NDP was holding power in B.C.

      And each time, the party's federal wing was slaughtered.

      This is no doubt on the mind of B.C.'s 14 NDP MPs just two years from the next federal election.

      It takes on added significance in the wake of the provincial cabinet's controversial decision to approve the $10.7-billion Site C dam, which has riled NDP supporters in many areas of the province.

      In three of those federal elections, the NDP only won two federal seats across B.C. In the fourth, the NDP won three seats.

      One factor was that a significant number of voters were angry at what the provincial New Democrats were doing in government.

      In the most recent instance in 2000, New Democrats won only two of the 34 seats in B.C.: Vancouver East and Burnaby-Douglas.

      Under then leader Alexa McDonough, the party only captured 11.3 percent of the votes in B.C. in 2000.

      In 1997, the federal New Democrats won three of B.C.'s 34 seats (Vancouver East, Burnaby-Douglas, and Kamloops) under McDonough. The NDP won 18.2 percent of the votes in B.C. in that campaign.

      Back in 1993 when Jean Chrétien won his first Liberal majority, the NDP only won two of B.C.'s 32 seats (Kamloops and Burnaby-Kingsway) under leader Audrey McLaughlin. The federal NDP won just 15.5 percent of the votes in B.C. that year.

      Contrast that with the 1988 federal election when the Social Credit was in charge of the provincial government. The NDP won its record of 19 seats and 37 percent of the vote under the leader at that time, Ed Broadbent.

      There was only oe other time a federal election was held while the NDP was governing the province: 1974.

      In that instance, the NDP won only two of the 23 federal seats in B.C., even losing long-time NDP bastions of Vancouver East and Vancouver Kingsway to the Liberals.

      New NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is going to need to perform well in B.C. if he hopes to keep his job for a long period after the next election. But if history offers any lessons, he could get steamrollered in Canada's westernmost province by the federal Liberals, Greens, or Conservatives.

      And it would all be because of policies being advanced by Singh's provincial counterparts.

      So far, no NDP MP has spoken out publicly against the B.C. NDP cabinet's decision to complete the hydroelectric dam that will flood an 83-kilometre section of the Peace River.

      All 14 have remained silent, even though demand for electricity in B.C. has remained flat for a decade.

      As the election looms and if polls start suggesting that these B.C. NDP MPs might be in danger of losing their jobs, there's a possibility that some might publicly disagree with the provincial party consensus on this issue.

      If I were a betting man, I would put my money on two of the most environmentally inclined members of the federal caucus, Richard Cannings or Murray Rankin, to be among the first to break ranks.

      Rankin, in particular, could face a tough challenge from the Greens in Victoria. Don't doubt for a minute that Green candidates, including the one in Victoria, will try to use the Site C dam as a wedge to pry away traditional NDP voters.

      Cannings is a biologist and one of B.C.'s leading bird experts. The South Okanagan–West Kootenay MP has also spoken against the Site C dam in the past.

      "Enabling rapid construction of Site C also contradicts the federal government’s pledge to support green initiatives, since power coming from a dam that floods valuable agricultural land and destroys habitat for species at risk can hardly be labelled green energy," Cannings said in Parliament last year. "And B.C. citizens would benefit financially from a go-slow policy around site C; energy economist Robert McCullough has calculated that a one-year delay in construction would save us $268 million because of the current low demand for power."

      In light of comments like these, it's hard to see how he could be a happy camper about the decision. And within the party's federal wing, he's likely not alone in this regard.

      More

      Comments