Trump can't last—Canada trade negotiators should just wait until Mike Pence becomes president

    1 of 1 2 of 1

      Almost every day, the news media are obsessing over Donald Trump's latest insult against Canada.

      On some occasions, he's trying to play the Mexicans off against us.

      Another day, he's bellyaching about supply management in Canada. Then he's threatening huge tariffs on automobiles.

      It's a wonderful diversionary tactic for a president facing intense legal difficulties.

      The reality is that the Republicans are likely to be hammered in the midterm elections in November.

      For proof, look no further than the supposedly safe GOP seat in Ohio's 12th congressional district.

      The Republican, Troy Balderson, barely won on election night on August 7, but the final results won't be known until a recount is completed.

      It had been held by the Republicans since 1983. There has been only one loss since 1939 when Democrat Bob Shamansky won the district in 1980.

      Keep in mind that the Democrats only need to take 23 extra seats this November to control the House of Representatives.

      Once the Democrats take over, they can begin impeachment proceedings against Trump.

      This involves bringing charges forth, alleging that the president committed "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours".

      Trump has provided plenty of ammunition to a Democratic Congress.

      These impeachment charges will lead to the end of the Trump administration.

      Like another Republican president, Richard Nixon, Trump will eventually have to bid adieu to Washington.

      Then Mike Pence, just like former Nixon vice president Gerald Ford, will become president.

      Pence is a former Indiana congressman and a former Indiana governor.

      When he ruled over the state, he was "a tireless advocate for free trade", according to Politico writers Matthew Nussbaum and Eliana Johnson.

      Here are some revealing statistics from the Library of Parliament about Indiana's trade relationship with Canada.

      In 2016, Canada ranked first for Indiana's merchandise exports.

      There were 174,300 jobs in Indiana that depended on trade with Canada in 2013.

      Indiana, on the other hand, only ranked 11th among all 50 states for Canada's merchandise exports.

      But Indiana ranked sixth among all states for merchandise imports to Canada.

      Pence knows that his home state will suffer significant job losses if the Trump administration rips up the North American Free Trade Agreement.

      Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are smart to play the long game.

      There's no need to worry excessively about Trump, given his grim political future.

      Pence will be a far, far more significant player by this time next year.

      Canada can do a deal with Pence before the Democrats win back control of the White House in 2020.

      Many Canadians will wince over the prospect of a Pence presidency. I've heard several people say that he would be even worse than Trump.

      But if Trudeau is serious about locking down a trade agreement, Pence is going to be far easier to deal with than an easily distracted, bullying, and mercurial real-estate developer.