5 reasons why Justin Trudeau and his fellow Liberals cannot be complacent about next federal election

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      You can almost feel the smugness of the federal Liberals these days.

      According to CBC's poll tracker, which looks at publicly released opinion research, the Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives.

      Justin Trudeau's party has 37.3 percent support, according to this data, compared to 33.1 percent for the Conservatives and 15.5 percent for the NDP.

      The Greens have seven percent support and the Bloc Québécois is at a measly 3.3 percent.

      The Liberals' carbon tax—the prime minister calls it "pricing pollution"—has been crafted to further isolate federal Conservatives.

      The 2019 campaign should be a slam dunk for Trudeau, especially when you consider that former Conservative MP Maxime Bernier will be fielding right-wing candidates with his new People's Party of Canada.

      Canada's economy continues growing and unemployment is low, which are two other factors in the Liberals' favour.

      But is Trudeau going to cruise to reelection and win another majority government?

      Here are five reasons why he shouldn't be too sure of himself.

      1. Climate change

      The carbon tax is designed to win over climate-conscious voters, and particularly climate-conscious millennials in urban areas. But Trudeau's government also bought a pipeline company and plans to complete the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project.

      His government spent $4.5 billion to purchase the Canadian assets of Kinder Morgan.

      Trudeau plans to spend another $9.3 billion to triple diluted bitumen shipments from Alberta to B.C.

      This will make his MPs big targets in Vancouver, Burnaby, and North and West Vancouver, where the Liberals hold seven seats.

      In the recent Vancouver civic election, Green candidates captured the seven highest vote totals. Only one Green candidate was defeated.

      If Green Leader Elizabeth May can recruit some star candidates by 2019, Trudeau's Liberals could easily go down to defeat in several of those ridings.

      That's because Conservatives could be elected on vote splits between the Liberals and the Greens in some ridings, particularly on the North Shore.

      Meanwhile, Greens could be elected in the city of Vancouver. And the NDP could come roaring back in Burnaby.

      Trudeau has tried to sell his climate change as a necessary bargain that must include a pipeline project.

      Judging from the recent local elections, residents in Vancouver don't buy the argument that to reduce greenhouse gases, you have to build more oil infrastructure.

      Trudeau's plan to invest billions on pipelines doesn't appeal to many Quebec voters, either.

      Moreover, it makes the Liberals appear as though they're unconcerned about the fate of endangered southern resident orcas in the Salish Sea.

      2. Public mindset of "throw the bums out"

      In province after province, incumbent governments have been defeated in elections dating back to 2016. It happened in Quebec, Ontario, B.C., Manitoba, and possibly New Brunswick.

      The Liberals survived in Nova Scotia, but they might not be so lucky next year on Prince Edward Island, where the Greens are enjoying an unprecedented level of support.

      Some local incumbents are managing to remain popular, notably Toronto mayor John Tory. But the incumbent mayor of Montreal, Denis Coderre, was defeated and the incumbent mayor of Vancouver, Gregor Robertson, chose not to seek reelection.

      Robertson's party was nearly obliterated, with only one school trustee winning reelection. The mayor's party in Surrey was also trounced and the long-time mayor of Burnaby went down to defeat.

      3. Federal deficits under Trudeau

      This year's budget forecast an $18.1-billion shortfall. Even if the numbers come in better than expected because of strong economic growth, Trudeau's reputation as a manager of the public treasury could come under fire in the next federal campaign.

      According to the parliamentary budget officer, Canada only has a 10 percent chance of balancing the budget by 2021–22.

      This year's deficit is forecast to come in at $19.4 billion, which is higher than Finance Minister Bill Morneau predicted last February.

      Rising interest rates will also make debt-soaked voters feel more pinched. Trudeau can say he's for the middle class, but that's no solace to those grappling to meet their higher mortgage payments.

      4. Gallivanting on the world stage

      Canadians repeatedly see their prime minister travelling abroad to boost his profile.

      This might not bother the Liberal base. But for swing voters, it's getting tiresome.

      It also reinforces the perception of Trudeau as a leader who prefers international junkets than staying in Ottawa and doing the people's business.

      During the next campaign, expect the Conservatives to make a big deal out of Trudeau's less-than-stellar trip to India earlier this year.

      This has potential to drive down Liberal polling numbers before voting day.

      5. The NDP pulls off a stunning turnaround

      As things appear now, the NDP is looking very vulnerable, having lost several byelections under the leadership of Jagmeet Singh.

      But what if Singh, a lawyer by profession, surprises people by winning televised debates against Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer? It's not beyond the realm of possibility, given Singh's legal training.

      Trudeau received a huge boost in the 2015 campaign when he outperformed expectations in his first debate against Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair. The two old political warhorses looked canned and insincere next to the more earnest Trudeau.

      Debates are dangerous for leaders who are topping the polls. Opponents all gang up on that person, likely to be Trudeau, and if this leader is not quick on his feet, he can make the kind of mistake that can sink a campaign.

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