Where does the Vancouver Canucks’ top line rank among the league’s best?

by Nathan Caddell on November 4th, 2019 at 10:21 PM

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The Vancouver Canucks’ first line has two very vital components any such unit should aspire to: it’s performing extremely well, obviously, and it has a great nickname.

Like other noteworthy units of Canucks lore—we’re thinking of the West Coast Express and, to a lesser degree, the Mattress Line—the Lotto Line gives a memorable moniker to a trio that could be playing together for a long time.

(The name plays on the numbers the forwards on the line wear. Brock Boeser is number 6, Elias Pettersson wears number 40 and J.T. Miller sports number 9… 649, get it?)

This line is also doing things we haven’t seen in Vancouver since the Sedins were in their primes. That is, they are among the very best units in the NHL.

It’s early, for sure, but it’s worth considering how Pettersson, Boeser and Miller are faring compared to other teams’ first lines.

In terms of even-strength production (and yes, all three have been hot on the power play of late but that isn’t counted here), the trio has accounted for nine goals when all three are on the ice. That doesn’t sound like that many, but as of Monday, November 4, it was seventh in the league.

Courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

And things get more impressive when you dig a little deeper into the stats. Of trios with at least eight even-strength goals scored (there were 13), the aforementioned Canucks were tied for first in goals-for percentage when they are on the ice.

(They were locked even with the Edmonton Oilers’ line of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisatl and a seemingly renewed Zach Kassian.)

They also had the highest shots-for percentage of those 13 lines, controlling 64.1 percent of the shots when they are on the ice. The next highest mark was the Boston Bruins’ absolutely unstoppable unit of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, who came in at 60.4 percent.

That’s impressive, even if it does come with the caveat that the Lotto Line has started 75 percent of shifts in the offensive zone—fourth among the 13 lines.

Another advanced stat, expected goals (it measures the likelihood of teams and players scoring based on metrics like shot location), is also kind to Vancouver’s top line.

https://twitter.com/KyleSage44/status/1191437495742935040

Pettersson, Miller and Boeser are tied for fourth among qualified lines in expected goals percentage, holding a 64 percent rate.

They are tied with the Vegas Golden Knights’ unit of Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone and Paul Stastny, and slightly trail another Knights line, that of Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith and William Karlsson.The Golden Knights are analytical darlings and have as stacked a top six as any team in the league.

In the number one and two spots are the Nashville Predators threesome of Ryan Johansen, Michael Granlund and Fillip Forsberg, and the Arizona Coyotes’ Phil Kessel, Clayton Keller and Derek Stepan, respectively. However, both those units have played far fewer minutes together than the Canucks’ trio.

In any case, both the surface-level numbers and the underlying ones are forming a compelling argument in favour of the Canucks’ top line being among the league’s best right now.