The website ThreeHundredEight.com has posted new riding projections across the country. And they must be discouraging to NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, who's in B.C. this weekend trying to shore up support for his party.
The website, which also tracks poll results, has the Liberals with a 50 percent or greater chance of winning 14 B.C. ridings. If the website's riding projections turn out to be accurate, it would put Justin Trudeau's party in a dead heat with the NDP and one seat ahead of the Conservatives in B.C.
When Parliament was dissolved, the Liberals held only two B.C. seats: Vancouver Centre (Hedy Fry) and Vancouver Quadra (Joyce Murray).
The website has the Liberals likely or in serious contention to elect the following candidates in addition to Fry and Murray: Jody Wilson-Raybould (Vancouver Granville), Terry Beech (Burnaby North-Seymour), Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South), Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver), Pamela Goldsmith-Jones (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country), Lawrence Woo (Richmond Centre), Joe Peschisolido (Steveston-Richmond East), Carla Qaultrough (Delta), Randeep Sarai (Surrey Centre), Sukh Dhaliwal (Surrey-Newton), Ken Hardie (Fleetwood-Port Kells), and Judy Higginbotham (South Surrey-White Rock).
Higginbotham, a former Surrey councillor, would be the biggest shocker because the Conservatives are running former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts in this riding.
"These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding," the website cautions.
ThreeHundredEight.com also emphasizes on its website that people shouldn't take projected results in individual ridings too literally.
"For that reason I have long thought about not publishing riding projections," founder Eric Grenier wrote. "But I think it is important to 'show my work', and that is what the riding projections do. They also include ranges that should give people a decent idea of who is and who isn't in play in a given riding."
Just to make things clear, he also added this caveat: "The individual riding calls are not nearly as important as the overall regional and national projections."
The website has the NDP with a 50 percent or greater chance of electing these 14 B.C. candidates: Jenny Kwan (Vancouver East), Don Davies (Vancouver Kingsway), Kennedy Stewart (Burnaby South), Peter Julian (New Westminster-Burnaby), Fin Donnelly (Port Moody-Coquitlam), Bob D'Eith (Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge), Murray Rankin (Victoria), Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke), Sheila Malcomson (Nanaimo-Ladysmith), Alistair MacGregor (Cowichan-Malahat-Langford), Gord Johns (Courtenay-Alberni), Rachel Blaney (North Island-Powell River), Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley), and Richard Cannings (South Okanagan-West Kootenay).
The Conservatives are listed to have a 50 percent or better chance of electing the following 13 B.C. candidates: Ed Fast (Abbotsford), Todd Doherty (Cariboo-Prince George), Dan Albas (Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola), Mark Strahl (Chilliwack-Hope), Dean Drysdale (Cloverdale-Langley City), Douglas Horne (Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam), Cathy McLeod (Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo), Ron Canaan (Kelowna-Lake Country), David Wilks (Kootenay-Columbia), Mark Warawa (Langley-Aldergrove), Brad Vis (Misson-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon), Mel Arnold (North Okanagan-Shuswap), and Bob Zimmer (Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies).
Green Leader Elizabeth May is deemed almost certain to be reelected in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
Trudeau has played up his B.C. roots in TV ads targeted at voters in this province. In these spots, he's seen walking up the Grouse Grind and mentioning how he spent many years living here.
His maternal grandfather, James Sinclair, was a Liberal MP and fisheries minister who represented North Shore voters for nearly 20 years in the 1940s and 1950s.