Vancouver school board officials have released a long-range planning report that could result in some big changes.

They include the possible closure of 11 to 12 elementary schools and one secondary school over the next 15 years. 

In addition, it suggests that up to eight school sites "may be repurposed for temporary accommodation" to support a seismic mitigation plan.

The report also concludes that nine elementary schools and five secondary schools should be the "immediate priority" for completion of seismic mitigation.

The elementary schools on this immediate-priority list are Cavell, Wolfe, Tennyson, Maple Grove, Weir, Jamieson, Bayview, Lloyd George, and Kingsford-Smith.

The secondary schools recommended as an immediate priority for seismic mitigation are Prince of Wales, Thompson, Point Grey, Hamber, and Killarney.

The report also recommends that the board ask staff to "review the viability" of the following elementary schools as part of a zone-planning initiative: Waverley, Grenfell, Begbie, Mackenzie, Renfrew, Carleton, Livingstone, Hudson, and False Creek.

Secondary schools that should have their viability reviewed as part of zone planning, according to the report, are John Oliver and Templeton.

According to the report, the city's population has grown over the past 20 years, but enrollment in public schools has been on the decline. It's forecast to continue falling by 550 students, or one percent of the total, over the next 15 years.

There are 50,387 students enrolled in 77 elementary main schools, 15 elementary annexes, and 18 secondary schools in the Vancouver school district.

Vancouver public schools are operating at 84.6 percent of capacity across the district, whereas most large districts exceed 95 percent, according to the report.

It recommends that the board work to achieve district-wide capacity utilization of 95 percent through the implementation of the seismic mitigation plan.

The highest enrollment capacity, 102 percent, is in the west section of the district. The Kitsilano and downtown section is next at 93 percent, followed by the central area at 85 percent.

The southeast section is at 80 percent enrollment capacity, whereas UBC is at 79 percent and the northeast is at 74 percent. (More detailed numbers are available here.)

There are 69 schools "at high risk and require seismic mitigation", with five of those already under construction.

Another 24 have been approved for feasibility planning, the report states, and another 40 have not received support for this work from the Ministry of Education.

"If a school was closed or repurposed, on average the VBE would save annual operating costs of $249,000 for an annex, $567,000 for an elementary main school and $1,949,000 for a secondary school," the report notes. "If a school was closed or repurposed, one-time costs could be avoided for deferred maintenance ($2-$4 million for an elementary school and up to $17 million for a secondary school) and seismic mitigation ($8-$16 million for an elementary school and $30-$60 million for a secondary school)."

On Wednesday (January 20), trustees and stakeholders will discuss the report at the board's planning and facilities committee meeting.

Then it will go to the board on the following Monday (January 25).

The Vancouver school board stated on its website that an interim plan will be sent to the Ministry of Education on January 31.

In 2010, the board considered the possibility of closing five elementary schools, but decided against doing this in the face of intense opposition in the community.