This morning, I wrote an article outlining 10 reasons why Vision Vancouver should be feeling some trepidation about tomorrow's election.
Below, I'll follow up with six reasons why the NPA may not be in a good position to replace the governing party.
6. NPA mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe has not convinced voters that he would focus much attention on affordable housing and homelessness.
5. The NPA has attracted remarkably few third-party endorsements. Former NPA politicians like Gordon Price and Peter Ladner have not been banging the drum for the party. The former president, Michael Davis, endorsed Vision Vancouver, arguing that this NPA is too right wing. None of LaPointe's former colleagues in the media have gone to the ramparts to say what a great guy he is. LaPointe was largely anonymous to the public before entering the race. People still don't know him very well beyond his short voice clips in TV and radio advertisements. He has not been a presence around City Hall over the past six years. He doesn't even live within the city's boundaries.
4. Densification under Vision Vancouver has increased the number of voters in areas that have traditionally been Vision Vancouver's back yard, such as Grandview-Woodland. There's been far less densification in southwest Vancouver, where the NPA is the most popular party. The number of votes from NPA strongholds has remained static in recent elections whereas turnout has sharply risen in Vision Vancouver's areas. If the NPA had been paying attention to this trend, it would support a ward system so it could get more councillors elected. As things stand, the NPA could easily be trounced again.
3. The NPA is perceived by many voters to be a front group for the city's business establishment, many of whom support pipeline proposals and the B.C. Liberal government in Victoria. The B.C. Liberals were slaughtered in Vancouver in the last provincial election. Increasingly, this is becoming an NDP city. If directors of the Fraser Institute are backing your party, it's not going to win a lot of support.
2. The anti–Vision Vancouver vote is fragmented all over the political landscape. It will go to the Cedar Party, the NPA, the Greens, COPE, and Vancouver First.
1. The NPA has done a fairly woeful job over the past three years of gathering support across the spectrum. Cobbling together a slate a few months before the election probably isn't sufficient to attract huge numbers of votes from the LGBT, South Asian, Chinese, and Filipino communities. This could prove decisive on election day.