Update: At 2 p.m. today, NDP Leader John Horgan and B.C. Green Leader Andrew Weaver "will make a significant announcement about the future of British Columbia's government", according to a media advisory issued at 1:01 p.m.
This morning, a little NDP bird whispered in my ear that B.C. Green Leader Andrew Weaver has a deal with the B.C. Liberals.
From the tone of resignation in this little bird's voice, I'm inclined to believe that Christy Clark will remain premier of B.C., thanks to the support of Weaver's caucus.
Weaver is playing for all the marbles on proportional representation. And it appears as though Clark is going to give it to him without a referendum.
Horgan, on the other hand, took the principled position of promising not to change the electoral system without the consent of the citizenry.
So what's likely to be the fallout from the B.C. Greens entering into a long-term agreement with the B.C. Liberals to keep the NDP out of power?
Here are eight predictions.
1. The Greens will face enormous blowback in urban British Columbia where the B.C. Liberals are most loathed. This likely means that Vancouver Green party politicians such as Adriane Carr, Stuart Mackinnon, and Michael Wiebe will have a very difficult time getting reelected in the 2018 municipal campaign. It could even result in a blowback against Victoria's Green-leaning mayor, Lisa Helps, in the 2018 election. The Green municipal farm team could be obliterated.
2. The B.C. Greens will face withering criticism in the South Asian, Taiwanese, and Filipino communities, further undermining any efforts at outreach in the future. This, in turn, will hurt municipal Green candidates in Vancouver. The NDP elected six MLAs of South Asian ancestry, three of Taiwanese ancestry, one of Philippine ancestry, and the popular Cantonese-speaking George Chow in Vancouver-Fraserview. All will vigorously campaign against Green party politicians at the local level.
3. Green Party of Canada Leader Elizabeth May will have a much more difficult time getting reelected in Saanich–Gulf Islands, should she choose to remain in politics. Her criticism of the Kinder Morgan pipeline has been consistent and long-standing, but it will look pretty hollow when her party's provincial leader is ready to keep the pipeline-justifying B.C. Liberals in power. First Nations who oppose the pipeline will look upon her and other Greens as quislings.
4. Cowichan Valley MLA-elect Sonia Furstenau will face a movement to recall her should she remain in the Green caucus.
5. There will be large anti-Weaver demonstrations in the Lower Mainland and at the Parliament Buildings. A procession of high-profile environmentalists and First Nations leaders will condemn Weaver for backing the B.C. Liberals even though most Greens and most British Columbians wanted him to make John Horgan premier.
6. The Site C dam will be completed during the next term of a B.C. Liberal minority government.
7. The B.C. Liberals will also keep their promise to build a 10-lane toll bridge across the Fraser River to replace the three-lane George Massey Tunnel. The NDP will mock Weaver and his Green caucus colleagues for being a party to this decision. And Green transportation activists will abandon the party in droves.
8. Weaver's popularity will plummet in public-opinion polls as he supports the B.C. Liberals in nonconfidence motions repeatedly brought forward by the NDP in the legislature.