Can the B.C. Liberals win the 2020 election despite dreadful polling results?

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      The general consensus is that the B.C. NDP has this election in the bag.

      One reason is the polls, which have consistently shown that the New Democrats are quite far ahead.

      A recent Angus Reid Institute survey, for example, put the NDP at 49 percent in "pre-debate vote intention". That compared to 31 percent for the B.C. Liberals and 14 percent for the B.C. Greens.

      Crucially for the NDP, it's far ahead in terms of poll respondents' perceptions as to which party can best respond to COVID-19.

      Another reason for the NDP's lead is the relatively high popularity rate of its leader, John Horgan.

      In addition, the leaders of the B.C. Liberals and B.C. Greens, Andrew Wilkinson and Sonia Furstenau, aren't nearly as well known.

      But when the votes are counted, polls aren't nearly as important as turnout.

      Whichever party does a better job of convincing its traditional supporters to complete ballots is more likely to succeed.

      B.C. Liberals trended higher in past

      In the last six elections, the B.C. Liberals have never received less than 40 percent of the votes.

      Its high-water mark came in the 2001 Gordon Campbell landslide, when it won the support of 57.62 percent of voters.

      The nadir came in 2017 with Christy Clark as leader. That's when the party attracted 40.36 percent of the votes and won 43 constituencies.

      In only three of those six elections did the NDP attract more than 40 percent support.

      Of those six campaigns, its high-water mark came in 2009 with 42.15 percent.

      The NDP's all-time peak came in 1979 with 45.99 percent of the votes when it still lost the election to the Social Credit party.

      The recent Angus Reid Institute poll suggests that Horgan could eclipse that.

      This chart documents how voter turnout has increased in the last three B.C. elections
      Elections B.C.

      Turnout matters

      Now, let's consider voter turnout.

      in the 2017 campaign,  the turnout among people between 18 and 24 shot up by a whopping 8.3 percent over the previous election.

      The numbers were also impressive for the so-called millennial generation.

      Turnout for those between 25 and 34 rose by 6.6 percent compared to the 2013 election. And for those between 35 and 44, it climbed by 6.2 percent.

      For voters over 45, turnout increased by far lower percentages in 2017.

      In that election, the B.C. NDP won 40.28 percent of the vote and captured 41 seats.

      It was able to form a minority government with the support of the three B.C. Greens who were elected.

      Historically, the NDP has tended to do better with younger voters.

      It's easy to make a case that those younger voters helped Horgan become premier.

      But will younger voters cast ballots in a pandemic? For that matter, will as many older voters bother doing this?

      Keep in mind that the Angus Reid Institute poll shows that the B.C. Liberals are doing significantly better among voters 55 and older than with younger voters.

      However, the NDP is still in front with all age groups—and especially with female voters.

      If that holds until election day, the NDP truly has this campaign in the bag.

      But if NDP support among older voters falters somewhat, it could change the dynamics.

      That's because in a pandemic election, it remains to be seen who's going to take the trouble to vote. 

      There were more than 1.7 million registered voters over the age of 45 in 2017.

      There were nearly 1.3 million registered voters between 18 and 44 in that election. 

      This suggests that oldies still rule the roost in B.C. elections, notwithstanding all the talk about millennials.

      So if Wilkinson gathers momentum—and particularly, if he demolishes Horgan in the televised leaders debate on Tuesday (October 13)—it may still be a bit early to completely count him out. That's particularly true if the B.C. Greens siphon off a significant number of votes from young people who previously voted NDP.

      Wilkinson has been underestimated before.

      Few expected him to win the B.C. Liberal leadership race.

      And he won a resounding victory in the referendum on electoral reform.

      But this time around, Wilkinson faces his steepest challenge yet. And the B.C. NDP will stop at nothing, at least within rules of the Election Act, to ensure that he's defeated.

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