Canada real estate: TD Economics sees high home prices holding up in fourth quarter before dropping in 2021

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      Home buyers looking for a bit of a discount may want to wait a little.

      A housing report by TD Economics predicts that high home prices will persist for the rest of 2020.

      “Regarding prices, we think they'll hold up at these record levels in the fourth quarter…,” economist Rishi Sondhi wrote.

      Then things will start to ease in 2021.

      Sondhi explained that tight supply is driving high home prices.

      According to the TD Bank economist, the real-estate market is currently in seller’s territory.

      The economist noted that the national sales-to-new listings ratio in September “registered a drum-tight reading” of 77.2 percent.

      He noted that “markets were the tightest they've been in nearly 20 years in September”.

      Sales-to-new listings ratio is the number of sales divided by listings.

      A seller’s market means that the sales-to-listing ratio is 60 percent or more, or six sales out of 10 listings.

      A balanced market features a ratio between 40 percent and 60 percent.

      A buyer’s market happens when the ratio is less than 40 percent, which means fewer than four sales for 10 listings.

      In a report on October 15, the Canadian Real Estate Association noted that the national average price of a home set a new record in September.

      The average price topped the $600,000 mark for the first time at more than $604,000.

      In his report on October 15, Sondhi predicted “some easing is anticipated” for prices after the fourth quarter of 2020.

      This is consistent with Sondhi’s previous report on October 8.

      The bank economist noted in that earlier report that “unlike sales, an immediate fourth quarter pullback is unlikely” for prices.

       “In fact, another (modest) gain could be in the cards,” Sondhi wrote.

      “After the fourth quarter,” Sondhi predicted on October 8, “Canadian prices will likely drop through the first half of 2021 by around 7%, before regaining some traction later next year.”